Cal-BC preview

I tweeted this after Tuesday’s press conference, but Billy O was a little annoyed with the media this week. He also showed frustration and anger after the Stanford loss. Because we are all still new to following his highs and lows, I don’t know how to read his emotions or what they mean for BC Football. I am hoping that the frustration is more of the “how did we lose that game" type of anger vs “what have I got myself into” feeling. In the end, his feelings or moods don’t really matter. What matters is BC winning this weekend. I don’t think Billy O is a bad coach, but if he is going to be special at BC, he needs to show he can win the “stop the bleeding” games like this.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I went to the Army-North Texas game last week. It is always good to see other teams and other stadiums and helps provide some perspective on BC and being a BC fan. All the things we worry about: NIL issues, the portal, recruiting, game management, keeping up with the Jones. It is not unique to BC. Every school faces it in some form or another. And most fanbases feel tortured in one form or another. Even with that renewed perspective, I really want BC to win this weekend.

Three Simple Keys
1. Hold onto the ball. Sometimes it is that simple. If we don't turn the ball over at the goaline against MSU and Stanford, we are undefeated right now.
2. Better tackling. I am surprised this is an issue. Billy O got the guys to cut down on penalties. Solid tackling seems like another fundemental skill that he would perfect. It seems like our guys are constantly diving at ankles. That's got to stop.
3. Contain explosive plays. We need to force Cal to dink and dunk and make mistakes.

Gambling notes
-- BC is 2-1 against the spread this year
-- Billy O is 7-1 in Alumni
-- Cal is 1-3 in ACC road games
The current line is BC-6.5

Factoid
BC has only played Cal once. We beat them at Alumni in 1986

Scoreboard Watching
Louisville-Pitt. Both are on our schedule and I don’t have a good feel for either team. Because of our losses we will probably need to beat both.

BC is in trouble if…the Oline is bad. Last week they moved guys around a bit mid-game and it didn’t help. We need to dominate upfront or else Lonergan will not have a clean pocket and we won’t be able to run the ball.

I hope to see…a good crowd. Last week was such a killer to mood and mometum. There is still a lot of football left. I hope the fans show up and are into it.

What ChatGPT Thinks: "No one can predict with certainty, but based on recent stats and expert models, **Boston College** is slightly favored."

Bottom Line
I am talking myself into a bounce back game. O’Brien is correct. We’ve given these games away. I think it gets cleaned up against a Cal team trying to fix their own situation. I think we score a lot early again but this time hold on in the second half.
Final Score: BC 38, Cal 21

BC-Stanford preview

Last week was frustrating, but encouraging. However, in the post-game it was clear that Billy O was mad. That’s good. I don’t want him to burn out or lose hope, but for us to push through and get to the next level (which is only eight wins) we need a leader who is not settling and is pushing through. Billy O still has the fire and I love it.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
BC didn’t make a big deal out of September 11 this week. A few social media posts, but seemingly less than previous years. Maybe some of it was sensitivity in the wake of the Charlie Kirk assasination, but maybe it is also time. I imagine many of the people running BC’s various social media accounts were either not born in 2001 or so young that they don’t have any real memory of it. Also, BC purposely separated the memory and celebration of Welles Crowther from September 11 years ago. I don’t want to shame BC into putting up 9/11 posts that are empty or insincere. I don’t even know the solution…just a thought that I’ve been kicking around since someone pointed it out to me Thursday.

Three Simple Keys
1. Don’t worry about the run this week. This is counter to what I usually preach, but this week I think wasting downs and possessions on an ineffective run game is not worth the effort. BC needs to open it up and light Stanford up. Let’s see them keep up with us in a shootout. Stubbornly running and lowering the score only helps them.
2. Get defensive turnovers. That was the difference between Michigan State 2024 and Michigan State 2025. We need to be aggressive (but smart).
3. Better tackling. On kick coverage and in the red zone. Sometimes it is just that simple.

Gambling Notes
– BC is 0-2 at Stanford
– Billy O has still only won one road game
– Stanford has lost four straight
The current line is BC-13.5

Factoid
The last time BC played at Stanford, it was days before 9/11 and also a late night West Coast game.

Scoreboard Watching
USF-Miami. Can USF play spoiler again? We need the Hurricanes to win and represent the ACC well nationally.

BC is in trouble if…Lonergan turns it over. He’s been so careful with the ball, but as we get more aggressive, some things won’t go our way. Let’s hope it is not an issue this week.

I hope to see…more success when we do run the ball. I don’t want to make it a priority, but it would be nice to see some success.

What ChatGPT Thinks "Boston College has a decent edge. I’d bet on Boston College to win this one — something like 27‑16 (just a guess)."

Bottom Line
Based on his dealings with the media this week, I think Billy O is not resting on his laurels. I think he will be aggressive in his gameplan and in his game management. I think BC starts the scoring early and never looks back.
Final Score: 35-14

BC-Michigan State preview

Last week was nice but it really meant nothing. This week will be the first test and also might be the most pivotal game of the season. If you get a win this week, the schedule lines up pretty well to go bowling. If we can’t go on the road and beat an improved but still fledgling Michigan State team, then perhaps this year will be a bit of a setback for BC. I think we can do it, but we will have to be sharper than we were against Fordham.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
For all the hand wringing about how bad the ACC is or how much the Big Ten and SEC dictate and dominate College Football, here we are in Week 2 and NBC is putting Michigan State-Boston College on national TV in primetime. As the chess pieces move around in College Football, I wonder if many of the schools and programs realize how expendable they are. Does a made-for-TV breakaway league need a team in Iowa? Or three in Indiana? Or two in Alabama or two in Mississippi? BC can’t rest on our laurels and needs to be smart about positioning ourselves, but the Boston market, the Catholic identity and the connected alumni base should keep us in the discussion.

Three Simple Keys
1. Lonergan needs to speed things up. He made some good throws, but I don’t think he is going to have as much time as he did against Fordham. The decisions will have to be much quicker and he has to get the ball out.  
2. Get pressure from the front four. The DBs covered a lot of mistakes last week. The Spartans will adjust for that, so it is up to the DLine to win some battles.
3. Don’t abandon the run game. Stick with it a bit. It should start to pay off. 

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 5-1-1
-- Jonathan Smith is 5-3 at home as Spartans coach
-- Billy O is 1-4 on the road while at BC
The current line is BC+4.5 

Factoid
The last time BC went to East Lansing, Nick Saban was Michigan State’s coach.
 

Scoreboard Watching
UConn-Syracuse. Two future opponents. It will be interesting to see how Syracuse bounces back from their opener.
 

BC is in trouble if…the Oline is not better. We need to control things up front.
 

I hope to see... The DBs change the game like they did last year. The weather will not be a factor like it was last year and Chiles will be more careful, but if we win those passing battles, we win the game.

What ChatGPT Thinks
"If you had to pick a clear winner based on smart consensus: Michigan State is the favorite. But Boston College remains very much in the mix, especially if their explosive offense from Week 1 shows up." 

Bottom Line
I'll admit, I'm a bit nervous. It is only Week 2 yet this game will tell us so much about this season and about Billy O's future at BC. Great coaches win games like this. As for what will happen: we won’t put up the points like we did last week, yet I still think this will be an offensive game. I think Lonergan makes some good decisions and our WRs go off. I think we force a few turnovers and hold on enough on D.
Final Score: BC 38, Michigan State 31