BC-Michigan State preview

Last week was nice but it really meant nothing. This week will be the first test and also might be the most pivotal game of the season. If you get a win this week, the schedule lines up pretty well to go bowling. If we can’t go on the road and beat an improved but still fledgling Michigan State team, then perhaps this year will be a bit of a setback for BC. I think we can do it, but we will have to be sharper than we were against Fordham.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
For all the hand wringing about how bad the ACC is or how much the Big Ten and SEC dictate and dominate College Football, here we are in Week 2 and NBC is putting Michigan State-Boston College on national TV in primetime. As the chess pieces move around in College Football, I wonder if many of the schools and programs realize how expendable they are. Does a made-for-TV breakaway league need a team in Iowa? Or three in Indiana? Or two in Alabama or two in Mississippi? BC can’t rest on our laurels and needs to be smart about positioning ourselves, but the Boston market, the Catholic identity and the connected alumni base should keep us in the discussion.

Three Simple Keys
1. Lonergan needs to speed things up. He made some good throws, but I don’t think he is going to have as much time as he did against Fordham. The decisions will have to be much quicker and he has to get the ball out.  
2. Get pressure from the front four. The DBs covered a lot of mistakes last week. The Spartans will adjust for that, so it is up to the DLine to win some battles.
3. Don’t abandon the run game. Stick with it a bit. It should start to pay off. 

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 5-1-1
-- Jonathan Smith is 5-3 at home as Spartans coach
-- Billy O is 1-4 on the road while at BC
The current line is BC+4.5 

Factoid
The last time BC went to East Lansing, Nick Saban was Michigan State’s coach.
 

Scoreboard Watching
UConn-Syracuse. Two future opponents. It will be interesting to see how Syracuse bounces back from their opener.
 

BC is in trouble if…the Oline is not better. We need to control things up front.
 

I hope to see... The DBs change the game like they did last year. The weather will not be a factor like it was last year and Chiles will be more careful, but if we win those passing battles, we win the game.

What ChatGPT Thinks
"If you had to pick a clear winner based on smart consensus: Michigan State is the favorite. But Boston College remains very much in the mix, especially if their explosive offense from Week 1 shows up." 

Bottom Line
I'll admit, I'm a bit nervous. It is only Week 2 yet this game will tell us so much about this season and about Billy O's future at BC. Great coaches win games like this. As for what will happen: we won’t put up the points like we did last week, yet I still think this will be an offensive game. I think Lonergan makes some good decisions and our WRs go off. I think we force a few turnovers and hold on enough on D.
Final Score: BC 38, Michigan State 31

BC-Fordham preview

Welcome back to Boston College Football. The start of this season is about as different as you can expect from last year. We have a returning coach, are playing at home and taking on an FCS school in the middle of Saturday. No spotlight. No buzz. And all of that is probably good. I don’t know what to expect this year. I don’t know if Billy O’Brien knows what to expect this year, so it is best to start learning about the team in a cupcake game against Fordham. Let’s build a little confidence, avoid big injuries and ease into the season. 

What’s on my mind (not totally related to this game)

All of college football remains in limbo. Worries about conference affiliations have taken a backseat to player budgets, expanded playoffs and looming government oversight. BC seems passive and that is probably purposeful. We don’t have enough juice financially to buy our way in, we don’t have enough political power to force our way in and we haven’t been good enough at football to use our brand as leverage. Plus we have a looming change in leadership and non-sports pressures that flagship state schools don’t face. In the long run, I am not as worried about the shifting landscape as I would have been 20 years ago. I think if there is a breakaway league with player employees, BC will be invited to join. Will we join, who knows? But for now, I think BC needs to keep tweaking its pay model annually just enough until we know how this all will work. 

Three simple keys 

1. Establish the run. While the QB battle got all the attention, the OLine turnover is probably our biggest offseason issue. In a game like this, I would love to see the Line work as a unit and push the Rams around. 2. Keep is simple on D. In my opinion, we should play vanilla as possible (few blitzes, lots of zone) and just contain Fordham. We want to keep all wrinkles and new stuff for Michigan State. 

3. Competency on Special Teams. Put last year behind us. 

Gambling Notes 

- BC leads the all time series 5-2 

- Fordham is 3-12 against FBS teams all time 

- BC hasn’t lost to an FCS opponent since 1978 

The current line is BC-37.5

Factoid 

BC has played five fellow Jesuit schools all time in Football (Detroit Mercy, Fordham, Georgetown, Holy Cross, and Marquette). 

Scoreboard Watching 

Notre Dame-Miami. Both teams should be good this year. It doesn’t have the same over the top personalities and hype that the matchup had in the ‘80s but I like the idea that these two are playing and it should mean something. 

 

BC is in trouble if…Lonergan is not sharp. I understand he hasn’t seen much live action in a while, but this is the perfect way to start your BC career. If he struggles, lots of people will be questioning his upside 

I hope to see…No one get injured. The win is a foregone conclusion. Getting out unscathed is not. 

 

What ChatGPT thinks 

"Boston College is expected to crush Fordham, and barring an unlikely upset, the Eagles should dominate this opening weekend game." 

Bottom Line 

BC will win this game. I think Lonergan looks good. I think James will get some time too and also look good. I think we force enough turnovers that is is never really close. 

 

Final Score: BC 40, Fordham 7

Season prediction

I am torn as I look towards the season. On paper, I think our schedule is very manageable and I am hearing good things about summer progress. However, (and I understand this is really subjective) Billy O's press interactions have me a bit worried. He's not saying anything wrong, but just picking up on vibes, I feel like he's not as confident as he was at times last year. It is probably silly, but I feel like if O'Brien felt we were making a big leap this season, his vibe would be different. 

I know the bookmakers think we will take a step back this year, but if you break the schedule down in chunks, I think the floor for the season is actually pretty high.

Even if you are not confident it is easy to rationalize 6 wins. You get two wins from UConn and Fordham. Split Pitt and 'Cuse. Go 2-1 against the Stanford, Cal, Michigan State combo. Then get just one win against the rest of the schedule and you are bowling again.

In the end, we are replacing a lot of talent and using an untested QB. There will probably be a lot of two steps forward and two steps back. Leading to 7-6 again.

W - Fordham. Good way to start the year and shake off the rust.

W - at Michigan State. One of the early indicators. If we win this game on the road, the upside for the season can be very interesting.

W - at Stanford. We are getting a Stanford team in flux. The late night West Coast game adds some complexity, but I feel good about this one.

W - Cal. A 4-0 start would get a lot of good attention.

L - at Pitt. I don't necessarily buy into the Pitt hype, but it is on the road and I don't see us starting off 5-0.

L - Clemson. We put up a good fight but are over matched.

W - UConn. Probably closer than we like.

L - at Louisville. Another program that I don't fear, but it is on the road and we will be underdogs.

L - Notre Dame. Night game. Red Bandanna. This could be huge. I want to believe, but odds say it will be an "L."

L - SMU. They are replacing a lot of talent and I think it will be closer than last year, but still tough.

W - Georgia Tech. One of these ACC underdog games will break our way. Maybe we catch them looking ahead to the Georgia game.

W - at Syracuse. We end on a high note.

L - Bowl game. It is unlikely to be Fenway or Pinstripes again, so I imagine it will be somewhere our fans won't travel to. Our bowl mojo remains bad and we come up short on eight wins again.

BC-Nebraska preview

This bowl game is not meaningless. Getting to eight wins will be huge for the program. What was once common place is now this invisible barrier that BC coaches haven't been able to crack. Getting that one more W will put this season above others and signal to everyone that BC is back.  Let's go!

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
BC wasn't in the playoff discussion this year, yet I still had plenty of agita about the process and what it means when BC is in the mix. Seeing Indiana and SMU flop on the biggest stage is not good for a BC. The traditional powers are never going to be penalized when they don't play well. People will forget about what Tennessee or Clemson did. So when the next SMU or Indiana have a monster season but don't win their conference, they will be penalized and in their place will be a Bama or other power. The key for BC is to just win the damn ACC every chance we get.

Three Simple Keys
1. Give Dylan Raiola a lot of different looks. He is still just a freshmen and still adjusting to his play caller. Keep him confused.
2. Win the turnover battle. It has been the key for most of the season. If James is smart with the ball and we don't do anything dumb, we should be in good shape.
3. Mistake free Special Teams. I don't expect the extra time fixed our Special Teams issues, but I just hope they avoid major blunders.

Gambling Notes
-- Matt Rhule is 1-3 in bowl games
-- Nebraska is 6-4-2 against the spread this year
-- BC is 8-4 against the spread this year
The current line is BC+2.5

Factoid
BC is 15-13 in bowl games.

Scoreboard Watching
Notre Dame and Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. Notre Dame is a defacto ACC team and Ohio State has lots of BC ties. The winner will have a great shot at the title. I remain a Ryan Day fan, so: "O-H-I-O!"

BC is in trouble if...We don't get a push from the OLine. This is the last hurrah with the core of this group. We need them to dominate this game.

I hope to see...That the field conditions are not a factor. Our last Pinstripe game was on an ice rink and it hurt BC. 

Bottom Line:
I think the time off will help BC. I think the conditions also play to our strengths. I think the model that has worked most of the year -- a few scoring drives and some timely defensive turnovers -- works one more time. BC gets its 8th win and go into Year 2 with great momentum. 
Final Score: BC 28, Nebraska 24

BC-Pitt preview

Due to college football's short season, momentum swings can be huge. It was only a few weeks ago BC was in the throes of a losing streak while Pitt was off to their best start in years. Now BC has found its footing and Pitt comes into this game in free fall. But it won't be easy. It never is. O'Brien and crew need to keep focused and finish the regular season strong. While seemingly trivial, the difference between six and seven wins is huge.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
While most of us are focused on family, food and football, BC Basketball pulled off a nice little upset and won the Cayman Islands Classic. Expectations are low for Earl as they dealt with significant roster turnover in the offseason. But clearly the team didn't seem bothered by the last place predictions. All of college sports is in flux due to the portal, but basketball is probably most unpredictable because of how small the roster is. I don't want to see our players walk every season, but if Earl continues to find the right type of guys to fill out his roster and compete, who cares what the college basketball world thinks. 

Three Simple Keys

1. Give their QBs lots of looks. Whether it is Holstein or Yarnell, BC needs to mix it up so that they throw some pics.

2. Get the running backs involved in the passing game. Kye and Ward are both good pass catchers. They can make plays and will probably be easy throws for James.
3. Establish an early lead. Pitt is struggling. We need to crush their spirit right away and don't look back.

Gambling Notes
-- Pitt leads the series 18-15
-- Pitt last won in Alumni in 2014

-- Pitt is 7-4 against the spread this year

The current lines is BC-4.5

Factoid
With all the conference shakeups, Pitt joining the ACC might have been inevitable, but they owe former BC AD Gene DeFilippo for their spot in the Power 4. Gene, who claimed he held no grudge, openly bragged about how he lobbied against UConn and for Pitt when the ACC expanded to add some of the remaining Big East teams.

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse-Miami. Because of our standing and the ACC bowl mix, this game probably has the biggest bowl implications. We want Miami to stomp the Orange so they keep hope alive for multiple ACC teams in the playoffs. We also want Syracuse looking spent so that we become more appealing to the lower-tier bowl games.

BC is in trouble if...Pitt stops the run. We showed more balance last week and I do think James can throw, bu I don't think we want to get into a game where we one dimensional in the air. 

I hope to see...no field goals and no punts. That graph from last week about the fewest field goals was a reminder of the futility. Why not embrace it at this point. Just go for it the whole time!

Bottom Line
We are winning this one. No hedging. No worries. We are playing well and Pitt is not. Sometimes it is that simple. I think we dominate in most aspects and end the regular season feeling really good about everything. 
Final Score: BC 35, Pitt 17

BC-UNC preview

For the first time this year, BC's back is against the wall. A sixth win is a crucial benchmark and we only have two shots left. BC is a home dog, but that shouldn't matter. Good teams win games like this and it is critical for O'Brien to get into a bowl game for Year 1. Last week -- like so many of our losses -- had some positives. Now we just need a complete game...and a win. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Watching the snow Thursday night in Cleveland had me lamenting that we don't have a signature snow game in BC history. But beyond not having some fun big BC win in a driving snow storm, we just surprisingly haven't had that many snow games. Freezing games? Sure. But not many picturesque snow games. And the most recent one we had -- Notre Dame -- was utterly forgettable. (Saturday will likely be wet but not cold enough for snow.)

Three Simple Keys
1. Don't give up on the passing game even if it is wet and rainy. One of the main reasons to make the QB switch was to give the passing game a spark. Don't forget that this week if the weather is bad.
2. Slow Hampton. He can't go off like he did last week against Wake.
3. No special teams problems. Same story, different week.

Gambling Notes
-- The Heels lead the series 4-2
-- North Carolina has won three straight in the series
-- BC is 6-4 against the spread
The current line is BC+3

Factoid
UNC has not lost at Alumni.

Scoreboard Watching
Pitt-Louisville. I am hyper focused on our sixth win, so I am trying to observe some sort of vibe off of Pitt that will make me feel better about next week. It would probably be good for BC to see Louisville crush them this week.

BC is in trouble if...we don't stop the run. This is not a bend but don't break game. We need plenty of three and outs and that starts with stopping the run.

I hope to see...a good home crowd there the whole game. Many of the students didn't come back after halftime of the Syracuse game. This is game is important. It should be close. Fans need to stay and make some noise.

Bottom Line
I think BC has a balanced attack and gets everyone involved. The D has its opportunistic turnovers and enough stops that BC wins comfortably and becomes bowl eligible.  
Final Score: BC 35 UNC 24 

BC-SMU preview

This week when asked about the Fenway Bowl and using that game as a model for this one, O'Brien quickly dismissed the notion and said BC is a different team. That's an understatement. Since the win in December, BC has a new coach...and a new QB. I give O'Brien credit for how he handled the distraction of TC leaving. There wasn't much media attention and fans didn't complain. Castellanos updated his social media, but didn't say anything of note. The best case scenario is James plays well and we move on. Let's hope that starts this weekend.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
It is a small sample size, but I know a few people going to this game. I don't think the expanded ACC moved the needle with most fans, but BC does have a national alumni base and people who are willing to travel when there is more to the city than just the college town. We will never sell out low-level bowl, but I think you will always be surprised by how many BC fans show up when the game is in a major city. 

Three Simple Keys
1. Establish the run early. We can't put this all on James. We need to control early and set the tone. If we rush for 200+ yards, we will win.
2. Get some picks. It is always the key, but especially this week. Jennings is pretty careful. We need to take advantage of any mistake.
3. Spread the ball around when passing. Everyone will be focused on Bond. Other guys will be open.

Gambling notes
-- The series is tied 1-1
-- SMU is 6-3 against the spread
-- BC is 5-4 against the spread
The current line is BC+18.5

Factoid
The last time BC played in Dallas -- in the First Responders Bowl that never happened -- the team practiced at SMU.

Scoreboard Watching
Pitt-Clemson. Will the Panthers' struggles continue? I hope so. We need them checked out when we play them.

BC is in trouble if...we don't get to Jennings. If he is able to sit back and wait, guys will get open and SMU will score a lot. 

I hope to see...clean Special Teams. That is a lot to ask. I know. But we know BC won't be kicking FGs and avoiding punts where we can. So all is ask is for when we do some form of Special Teams, that it is not a disaster.

Bottom Line
I think BC pulls of the huge upset and moves on from the TC era quickly. I think we run on them and force a few INTs and hold on for another road win against a ranked team.
Final Score: BC 28, SMU 20