BC-Fordham preview

Welcome back to Boston College Football. The start of this season is about as different as you can expect from last year. We have a returning coach, are playing at home and taking on an FCS school in the middle of Saturday. No spotlight. No buzz. And all of that is probably good. I don’t know what to expect this year. I don’t know if Billy O’Brien knows what to expect this year, so it is best to start learning about the team in a cupcake game against Fordham. Let’s build a little confidence, avoid big injuries and ease into the season. 

What’s on my mind (not totally related to this game)

All of college football remains in limbo. Worries about conference affiliations have taken a backseat to player budgets, expanded playoffs and looming government oversight. BC seems passive and that is probably purposeful. We don’t have enough juice financially to buy our way in, we don’t have enough political power to force our way in and we haven’t been good enough at football to use our brand as leverage. Plus we have a looming change in leadership and non-sports pressures that flagship state schools don’t face. In the long run, I am not as worried about the shifting landscape as I would have been 20 years ago. I think if there is a breakaway league with player employees, BC will be invited to join. Will we join, who knows? But for now, I think BC needs to keep tweaking its pay model annually just enough until we know how this all will work. 

Three simple keys 

1. Establish the run. While the QB battle got all the attention, the OLine turnover is probably our biggest offseason issue. In a game like this, I would love to see the Line work as a unit and push the Rams around. 2. Keep is simple on D. In my opinion, we should play vanilla as possible (few blitzes, lots of zone) and just contain Fordham. We want to keep all wrinkles and new stuff for Michigan State. 

3. Competency on Special Teams. Put last year behind us. 

Gambling Notes 

- BC leads the all time series 5-2 

- Fordham is 3-12 against FBS teams all time 

- BC hasn’t lost to an FCS opponent since 1978 

The current line is BC-37.5

Factoid 

BC has played five fellow Jesuit schools all time in Football (Detroit Mercy, Fordham, Georgetown, Holy Cross, and Marquette). 

Scoreboard Watching 

Notre Dame-Miami. Both teams should be good this year. It doesn’t have the same over the top personalities and hype that the matchup had in the ‘80s but I like the idea that these two are playing and it should mean something. 

 

BC is in trouble if…Lonergan is not sharp. I understand he hasn’t seen much live action in a while, but this is the perfect way to start your BC career. If he struggles, lots of people will be questioning his upside 

I hope to see…No one get injured. The win is a foregone conclusion. Getting out unscathed is not. 

 

What ChatGPT thinks 

"Boston College is expected to crush Fordham, and barring an unlikely upset, the Eagles should dominate this opening weekend game." 

Bottom Line 

BC will win this game. I think Lonergan looks good. I think James will get some time too and also look good. I think we force enough turnovers that is is never really close. 

 

Final Score: BC 40, Fordham 7

Season prediction

I am torn as I look towards the season. On paper, I think our schedule is very manageable and I am hearing good things about summer progress. However, (and I understand this is really subjective) Billy O's press interactions have me a bit worried. He's not saying anything wrong, but just picking up on vibes, I feel like he's not as confident as he was at times last year. It is probably silly, but I feel like if O'Brien felt we were making a big leap this season, his vibe would be different. 

I know the bookmakers think we will take a step back this year, but if you break the schedule down in chunks, I think the floor for the season is actually pretty high.

Even if you are not confident it is easy to rationalize 6 wins. You get two wins from UConn and Fordham. Split Pitt and 'Cuse. Go 2-1 against the Stanford, Cal, Michigan State combo. Then get just one win against the rest of the schedule and you are bowling again.

In the end, we are replacing a lot of talent and using an untested QB. There will probably be a lot of two steps forward and two steps back. Leading to 7-6 again.

W - Fordham. Good way to start the year and shake off the rust.

W - at Michigan State. One of the early indicators. If we win this game on the road, the upside for the season can be very interesting.

W - at Stanford. We are getting a Stanford team in flux. The late night West Coast game adds some complexity, but I feel good about this one.

W - Cal. A 4-0 start would get a lot of good attention.

L - at Pitt. I don't necessarily buy into the Pitt hype, but it is on the road and I don't see us starting off 5-0.

L - Clemson. We put up a good fight but are over matched.

W - UConn. Probably closer than we like.

L - at Louisville. Another program that I don't fear, but it is on the road and we will be underdogs.

L - Notre Dame. Night game. Red Bandanna. This could be huge. I want to believe, but odds say it will be an "L."

L - SMU. They are replacing a lot of talent and I think it will be closer than last year, but still tough.

W - Georgia Tech. One of these ACC underdog games will break our way. Maybe we catch them looking ahead to the Georgia game.

W - at Syracuse. We end on a high note.

L - Bowl game. It is unlikely to be Fenway or Pinstripes again, so I imagine it will be somewhere our fans won't travel to. Our bowl mojo remains bad and we come up short on eight wins again.