BC-Mizzou preview

Everyone's excited about BC. We are ranked for the first time in six years. O'Brien is getting a ton of positive press. The SuperFan shirts are back. But nothing is ever easy or simple. BC is on the road to take on the best Mizzou team in years and heavy underdogs. Yet there is nothing to lose. A month ago, this game seemed like certain doom. Now we have hope.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
In college sports -- where there are so many teams -- you tend to lose perspective on how other programs are doing and their fans feel about their program. Take Pitt for example. They just fired their AD. I was sort of surprised because despite having a down football year last season, things have generally been successful and competitive in Football and Basketball for the Panthers the last few years. But it speaks to how fans frustration can build up over time and how the big donors don't always want to hear from the same voice year after year.

Three Simple Keys

1. No bad INTS from TC. I think Mizzou is going to try to keep him in the pocket and force him to throw. If they do, he just needs to be smart and take the easy throws. 

2. Control the clock. It should be a very similar approach to the FSU game. Long drives where our OLine wears on them. 

3. Clean up the Special Teams. They still haven't been crisp yet. No shank punts. No penalties. Good coverage. 

Gambling Notes:
-- BC is 18-24-1 vs SEC schools

-- Mizzou is 18-31-3 vs ACC schools

-- Drinkwitz is 22-7 at home while at Mizzou

The current spread is BC+15.5

Factoid
BC Football has only played in the state of Missouri once. 1926 vs St. Louis University in St. Louis.

Scoreboard Watching

Memphis-Florida State will be interesting. Right now our win against the 'Noles feels big. But if they keep losing and look like a Paper Tiger, it will take a bit of the shine off of our start.

BC is in trouble if...this becomes a shootout. I don't think we have the depth, speed or weapons if the winning score needs to be in the high 30s or 40s.

I hope to see...continued pressure on the QB. If we are getting pressure up front, good things will happen. 

Bottom Line
This is going to take a perfect game, but I have faith. I think it will feel a lot like FSU. We will grind it out, keep mistake to a minimum and get a few key turnovers.

Final Score: BC 31, Mizzou 24

BC-Duquesne preview

This is perfect scheduling. Anything after last week was going to be a natural letdown, but playing Duquesne at home is nearly a sure thing. We saw last year that we can't take an FCS team lightly. But our natural playing style -- running between the tackles -- will help us avoid the scare we got last year from Holy Cross. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)

After the FSU game I kept wondering what Jeff Hafley thought of it all. These were his guys and even some of his coaches. I hope he was happy and I hope he feels he is in the right place. I am not being harsh when I say that I don't know if we would have won that game if he were still in charge. The mood of the team certainly would have been different and I don't know if the Defense would have been as sound. Maybe he will learn from his time at BC and be a better head coach if he gets a second chance. Or maybe he is happy as a DC. Who knows? For his sake, I hope he is in a good place. 

Three Simple Keys 
1. No QB injuries. That is my biggest fear of the whole weekend. We just need TC to get some reps, make some plays and stay healthy.

2. Win without showing anything new on film. Just keep it simple and don't do anything that might give Mizzou and Michigan State any ideas.

3. Play a little cleaner on Special Teams. Our returns and our punt coverage was a little sloppy last week. 

Gambling Notes

-- BC has won 34 straight against FCS opponents

-- BC has never played Duquesne

-- BC last played an NEC team in 2016

There is currently no line on the game

Factoid

BC is 3-2 following wins against Florida State.

Scoreboard Watching
I am interested to see how Syracuse and Georgia Tech match up. The Yellow Jackets are a run first team and if they can move the ball against the Orange, I assume we will too.

BC is in trouble if...if we can't get the backups playing time in the second half. I don't think it means we will lose, but it will mean we let a bad team hang around.

I hope to see...an enthusiastic home crowd. It is always tough filling Alumni for an FCS game, but it should be an easy win and the first time to see BOB coach in Alumni. Show up and make some noise.

Bottom Line
BC is winning this game. No one needs to get hurt. Just keep it simple and sound. 

Final Score: BC 38, Duquesne 7

Bill O'Brien era opens with a bang

During the game, I tweeted a bunch, but here are some post-game thoughts on BC's upset of Florida State. 

BOB went on the road against a ranked team looking to bounce back and punched them in the mouth. BC purposely came out and dominated the clock and the game with its OLine. It was a thing of beauty and a reminder of so many great BC teams of the past. And I know it is only Week 1, but there was a preparedness and calmness to the gameplan and the game management that we haven't seen in a long, long time. Despite very humid conditions and plenty of mistakes, BOB was composed on the sidelines and didn't do anything either too stupid or too conservative. It was just right. We've seen many BC coaches struggle to get that first win over a ranked opponent. BOB did it in game 1. 

If you had told me we would win in Tallahassee, I would have predicted a huge game from Castellanos. He was good, but not his best...and we still won. That's a testament to the OLine, the running backs and the entire D.

The D looked transformed. There is not a lot of new talent, so this is a case of "coaching them up." They were much more aggressive than any unit Hafley produced. They also seemed very comfortable in the new scheme considering it is Week 1. They showed lots of different looks and didn't have many mental mistakes. 

There is a lot of football to play and I am sure we will have some rough moments, but for the first time in a long time it doesn't feel like there is a ceiling on what BC can do. 

BC-FSU preview

A new coach. A new season. A new era. I am all about the fresh start. I have faith in O'Brien in the long-term, but I don't know what to expect for this season. Will he get more out of the current talent than Hafley and his crew did? Will he build the offense to Castellanos' strengths or force him into a scheme that calls on him to pass a lot? We don't know. But I do have faith. I think he will overachieve this year and in the long run at BC. I think Castellanos is a special talent and a good coach will make something special happen with him. And it all starts Monday night.

My season predictions (I will probably always predict that BC will win in my game previews.)

at FSU. W
Duquesne. W
at Mizzou. L
Michigan St. W
Western Kentucky. W
at UVA. W
at Virginia Tech. L
Louisville. L
Syracuse. W
at SMU. W
UNC. L
Pitt. W

8-4 (5-3 in ACC play). It would be a huge season and get us to a mid range ACC bowl. We win that and go into the Year 2 with a lot of momentum. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
The tragedy of the Gaudreau brothers reached well beyond BC and hockey news. I don't have anything new or insightful to say. I can't imagine what the family is going through and I know the BC Hockey community is still in shock. I will pray for the family. 

Three Simple Keys 
1. Stick with the run. Our gameplan should be similar to what Georgia Tech did with the 'Noles in Ireland. We need to keep pounding the ball, wear them down and hope for a few game breakers.
2. Don't allow explosive plays in the passing game. DJ will check down as long as we are disciplined in our coverage. 
3. Win the turnover battle. We are going to need a little luck and we need to be careful.

Gambling Notes
-- FSU leads the series 15-5
-- FSU has won five in a row
-- BC hasn't won in Tallahassee since 2008
The current line is BC+16.5

Factoid
A BC coach hasn't lost his BC debut since TOB in 1997.

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse-Ohio. The Orange have a new coach too and went in an entirely different direction in their hiring process. It will be interesting to see how Brown does there and if his recruiting lives up to the media hype.

BC is in trouble...if we can't get to the QB. What was so frustrating about the Hafley era is that we never developed a dynamic defense. FSU won't tell us everything, but we will need to create pressure if we want to beat top teams.

I hope to see...a huge game from Castellanos. Last year was fun. This year could be special. We will have a national stage on Monday night. It is a great chance for TC to get the attention of the college football world. 

Bottom Line
I think we match up well against FSU and getting them off of a tough loss overseas is perfect. Their confidence is faltering. If we show up and dominate the lines, I think the 'Noles will break mentally. I think we work them over and pull away late.
Final Score: BC 31, FSU 17

Learn more about Bill O'Brien's coaching techniques and philosophies

Yet another difference in hiring Bill O'Brien vs a first time head coach is that he has been prominently involved in numerous coaching clinics over the years. The following series dates back to his Penn State days but also touches on his time with New England, Houston and Alabama. They are very insightful into his personality and how he will run an offense, a coaching staff and work with his players.

It is also clear that he likes empty set formations a lot. That is very exciting with Castellanos, especially if TC has the green light to run if no one is spying him. 

My only concern is that there a lots of reads for the QB and the WRs...certainly more than last year. They will either have to teach a lot in the offseason or simplify he offense. 

Thoughts on O'Brien's introductory press conference

 

I've blogged through five new Head Football Coaches' introductory press conferences. I know this doesn't really mean much beyond the respective coach's introduction to BC. But given that, here are a series of thoughts...

1. If we are going by energy and vibes, this was the most even keeled and professional. O'Brien set the right tone. He didn't make over the top promises. He didn't try to sell himself. He wasn't goofy or forced. He showed the right deference to Father Leahy and the people who hired him. Blake James didn't turn it into his show either. And he didn't have to sell the hire or convince BC fans that this was the right choice. We all know it was. 

2. Based on his coaching style and temperament, I don't know O'Brien is trying to be "likable" but there were certainly some charming moments in the press conference. He had his family and extended family, plus numerous friends and former players in attendance and acknowledged many of them. He rattled off so many connections to local towns that he would clearly clean up on SNL's old "What’s the Best Way" sketch. 

3. He mentioned Reggie Terry multiple times and how helpful he has been in the transition. That's good to hear and know. Terry was brought in by Addazio and easily could have been an "Addazio guy." Instead he has stayed on and become a "BC guy" and is now working with his third head coach. Those people -- who get BC and have institutional knowledge -- are invaluable to a new coach who has a lot coming at him. Father Jack was also mentioned. Though his role is very different from Terry's, he also has a long connection to BC football and first hand perspective on different BC coaches. I hope O'Brien leverages that experience as appropriate.

4. This was probably the first BC new coach press conference that didn't mention Jerry York.

5. O'Brien didn't provide many specifics on schemes or staff. He said that will come later. He also didn't hesitate to address (nor whine) about the changing dynamics of college football. He said you have to embrace it and work. Easier said than done, but definitely a good answer.

A new era

Identities are important...especially for institutions. Institutions need their identities, so as times and people change, the identity carries on and new people can grasp on to something. It provides security and trust. Changing that identity is risky and members of institutions are naturally risk averse. They wouldn't hold onto institutions if they wanted something new. BC established a clear identity for its football program for years. Coaches were part of that identity and most of our hires over the last 40 years have been assistants looking for their shot or smaller college guys looking to move up. Bill O'Brien doesn't fit either mold. He won at a big college program and in the NFL. And now he is the most accomplished Football coach BC has ever hired. 

BC athletic director Blake James deserves the majority of the credit for hiring O'Brien. Too many ADs in the past would just keep to the mold. Keep to the budget. Keep control. James hired an established leader with instant credibility and someone who is likely to succeed. Ever since Coughlin left, we've had a series of mediocre and bad coaches. Most of those guys had some level of success. In theory if they could stumble into six wins and a bowl game, the ceiling for BOB should be much higher. 

One of the selling points to some of the past unknowns is that we might be hiring the next Tom Coughlin, the next Hall of Famer, a guy who is going to unlock something special at BC. Because they were blank slates, we rationalized it to ourselves. "Maybe he is special." Reality would kick in along the way. Sometimes pretty quickly. With Bill O'Brien we don't have to strain to believe. We don't have to fool ourselves. We know he can do it because he has done it before. 

I know it may not work. It is never as simple as "just go hire the biggest name." For this to be special, BOB will have to adjust, he will have to find the right people (staff and players) and BC will have to get a little lucky. But we are trying something different and that is a good thing. We are stepping out of our place in the College Football ecosystem. We are changing our identity.  

It is a new beginning at BC and 2024 is already one of the most important years in BC Football and it is only February. Let's go!