BC-Virginia preview

Close games, in general, are not a good sign. But if you are going to be in close games, you better win them. I do credit the staff for pulling out wins in these close games. Too often we've seen coaching staffs mismanage tight games or flat out give them away. Now let's see if the coaching staff is good at resetting. The non-conference schedule is over, we are a road underdog and we have plenty to clean up. We need to win this game. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
If you didn't see or listen to it, O'Brien was on Julian Edelman's podcast last week. It is another good platform where O'Brien gets to rehash a lot of stories but also promote BC and give us glimpses into his approach to coaching at BC. I have no true way to measure this, but I think it is safe to say O'Brien has done more media than any previous first year BC coach. It is great for BC. He gets to raise our profile and get the attention the program needs in the college football world. He has the right pedigree and personality for it and seems to like doing these types of things. The newness with the media will wear off, but hopefully he remains in demand because we are winning. 

Three Simple Keys
1. Stick with the run. O'Brien made reference to this in his post games. It helps our QBs, plays to our strength and pays off in the second half. 
2. Use the QBs in the running game. This could be related to No. 1. If TC is good to go, we need him to be a running threat. If James plays, he needs to use his legs more. He had lots of potential big keepers that he didn't take last week.
3. Fix the blown assignments in the defensive backfield. In the past two weeks we've allowed lots of guys to get wide open. Fortunately we were not burned. That can't keep happening. 

Gambling notes
-- BC leads the series 7-1
-- BC is 2-1 in Charlottesville 
-- Virginia is 2-1-1 against the spread this year
The current line is BC+1

Factoid
The Brad Butler cheap shot on Kiwi also took place on the first weekend in October.

Scoreboard Watching
SMU-Louisville. We face both later in the year. Either team might be our toughest game left. It will be interesting to see how they do against each other.

BC is in trouble if...TC is not 100%. Can we win with him on one leg? Yes. Can we win with James? We just did. But we won't have a special season if TC is not at his best for he remainder of the year. 

I hope to see...continued pressure from the front four. Ezeiruaku was awesome last week. Let's hope he can do it again.

Bottom Line
I like this matchup. I think (per OB) we establish the run early and control the tempo throughout. We force a few turnovers and get a nice road win.
Final Score: BC 28, UVA 17

BC-Western Kentucky preview

Bill O'Brien knew exactly what to say after the Michigan State win. Spending time with Saban and Belichick will leave an imprint when it comes to things like that. It was immediately onto Western Kentucky. Many BC seasons have been undone by taking an underdog lightly following a big win or good start. If O'Brien wants to change the culture and history around BC Football, taking care of business against the Hilltoppers is a good place to start. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I was surprised by the reaction among some fans to Matt Sluka deciding to redshirt this year at UNLV after not getting what was promised via NIL. In my opinion, it is not quitting. He has his degree. He is there for football and if he was clearly promised something and they are not delivering financially, then he is entitled to walk. All of these people are using each other. And if he has his degree, what is in it for him to play for UNLV of all teams when they are jerking him around? He is the longest of long shots for an NFL career, so this might be his only football payday. Now he will get more next year and get to play one more season of football.

Three Simple Keys

1. More interceptions. WKU is going to throw it a lot. That's their most modus operandi. He need to give them different looks and keep ballhawking. Some pressure on the QBs would be nice too.

2.  Run the ball. Castellanos is out. Grayson James is in. It might help the passing game but shouldn't change our approach. We need to run the ball and run it well.

3. Fix the punting. I hope we don't need to punt much, but if we do, it needs to be clean and really change field position.

Gambling Notes

--WKU is 3-1 against the spread

-- BC is 3-1 against the spread

-- BC is 1-0 vs current Conference USA teams

The current line is BC-13

Factoid

BC has the chance to have its first perfect September at home since 2021.

Scoreboard Watching
Stanford-Clemson is intriguing. Clemson looked dead opening weekend but looked like monsters last week. Are they back? Is Stanford good? We will see.

BC is in trouble if...Grayson James is a mess. He has experience. He's been getting good reps. I think we coach the position well. All he has to be is serviceable and we win. 

I hope to see...BC avoid turnovers. It is so simple but for a team like BC, it is so true. We need to keep things clean. 

Bottom Line
Losing TC is a curve ball but it if he is not 100%, it is better than he misses this game than a conference game. Plus, if he can't run, he is not the same weapon. James should be fine and we should control the ball enough to win.

Final Score: BC 28, WKU 17

BC-Michigan State preview

Bill O'Brien hasn't shared much of his philosophy to managing a schedule or a season. After last week's loss, he clearly said that there are no moral victories at Boston College. Yet, I think most BC fans would view the first part of his season a definite success. Now as we turn to the heart of the season and come home, the real test begins. No one is going to be surprised by BC. No one is going to take BC lightly. The honeymoon isn't over, but the expectations have risen and now we see what we have in our new leadership.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I've shared this sentiment before, but the Red Bandanna game is another reminder that we should bring back Men's Lacrosse. When I started this blog, bringing back Men's Lacrosse was an online joke because so many passionate fans used to haggle Gene about it. But the success of the Women's program, the continued rising profile of Welles Crowther and the changing landscape with NIL, revenue sharing and Title IX are all reasons to bring it back. BC could form a team, even without a full allotment of scholarships, and compete at the national level. People need to press this with Blake James. The reason for not doing it getting less relevant every year.

Three Simple Keys

1. TC can't force things. Last week's INTs were very familiar. TC is going to take chances. That's part of his appeal. But he needs to be smart about it. We can't give up possessions and often the field position and win games against good teams.

2. Stop the run. Mizzou kept us in that game but not running more. We could barely stop it. We need to win the along the line and get our D off the field.

3. Clean up the Special Teams. The punts have been sloppy and inconsistent. They don't really trust anyone to make a field goal. This will cost us soon against good teams.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 4-1-1

-- BOB is 3-0 against the spread at BC

-- Michigan State is 1-2 against the spread this year

The current line is BC-6.5

Factoid

Michigan State is one of four current Big Ten teams that BC has a winning record against. 

Scoreboard Watching
Cal-FSU. I know each loss diminishes our win, but the 'Noles trainwreck season is one in which you can't look away or ignore. Plus Cal has been a early season surprise.

BC is in trouble if...we give up on the run too early. I know you have to keep pace and I know you also have to take what they give you, but there is a reason to stick with the run. It helps the D, plays to our strength and pays off in the 4th quarter.

I hope to see...a huge, perfect game from TC. We know what he can do, but he is yet to do it this season. I want to see a mistake free, scoreboard busting highlight reel game in the Red Bandanna uniforms.

Bottom Line

This is a tough matchup. Michigan State will sell out to stop the run. But I think we will do it. The night game and the Red Bandanna energy will help BC pull away in the second half. 

Final Score: BC 28, Michigan State 16

BC-Mizzou preview

Everyone's excited about BC. We are ranked for the first time in six years. O'Brien is getting a ton of positive press. The SuperFan shirts are back. But nothing is ever easy or simple. BC is on the road to take on the best Mizzou team in years and heavy underdogs. Yet there is nothing to lose. A month ago, this game seemed like certain doom. Now we have hope.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
In college sports -- where there are so many teams -- you tend to lose perspective on how other programs are doing and their fans feel about their program. Take Pitt for example. They just fired their AD. I was sort of surprised because despite having a down football year last season, things have generally been successful and competitive in Football and Basketball for the Panthers the last few years. But it speaks to how fans frustration can build up over time and how the big donors don't always want to hear from the same voice year after year.

Three Simple Keys

1. No bad INTS from TC. I think Mizzou is going to try to keep him in the pocket and force him to throw. If they do, he just needs to be smart and take the easy throws. 

2. Control the clock. It should be a very similar approach to the FSU game. Long drives where our OLine wears on them. 

3. Clean up the Special Teams. They still haven't been crisp yet. No shank punts. No penalties. Good coverage. 

Gambling Notes:
-- BC is 18-24-1 vs SEC schools

-- Mizzou is 18-31-3 vs ACC schools

-- Drinkwitz is 22-7 at home while at Mizzou

The current spread is BC+15.5

Factoid
BC Football has only played in the state of Missouri once. 1926 vs St. Louis University in St. Louis.

Scoreboard Watching

Memphis-Florida State will be interesting. Right now our win against the 'Noles feels big. But if they keep losing and look like a Paper Tiger, it will take a bit of the shine off of our start.

BC is in trouble if...this becomes a shootout. I don't think we have the depth, speed or weapons if the winning score needs to be in the high 30s or 40s.

I hope to see...continued pressure on the QB. If we are getting pressure up front, good things will happen. 

Bottom Line
This is going to take a perfect game, but I have faith. I think it will feel a lot like FSU. We will grind it out, keep mistake to a minimum and get a few key turnovers.

Final Score: BC 31, Mizzou 24

BC-Duquesne preview

This is perfect scheduling. Anything after last week was going to be a natural letdown, but playing Duquesne at home is nearly a sure thing. We saw last year that we can't take an FCS team lightly. But our natural playing style -- running between the tackles -- will help us avoid the scare we got last year from Holy Cross. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)

After the FSU game I kept wondering what Jeff Hafley thought of it all. These were his guys and even some of his coaches. I hope he was happy and I hope he feels he is in the right place. I am not being harsh when I say that I don't know if we would have won that game if he were still in charge. The mood of the team certainly would have been different and I don't know if the Defense would have been as sound. Maybe he will learn from his time at BC and be a better head coach if he gets a second chance. Or maybe he is happy as a DC. Who knows? For his sake, I hope he is in a good place. 

Three Simple Keys 
1. No QB injuries. That is my biggest fear of the whole weekend. We just need TC to get some reps, make some plays and stay healthy.

2. Win without showing anything new on film. Just keep it simple and don't do anything that might give Mizzou and Michigan State any ideas.

3. Play a little cleaner on Special Teams. Our returns and our punt coverage was a little sloppy last week. 

Gambling Notes

-- BC has won 34 straight against FCS opponents

-- BC has never played Duquesne

-- BC last played an NEC team in 2016

There is currently no line on the game

Factoid

BC is 3-2 following wins against Florida State.

Scoreboard Watching
I am interested to see how Syracuse and Georgia Tech match up. The Yellow Jackets are a run first team and if they can move the ball against the Orange, I assume we will too.

BC is in trouble if...if we can't get the backups playing time in the second half. I don't think it means we will lose, but it will mean we let a bad team hang around.

I hope to see...an enthusiastic home crowd. It is always tough filling Alumni for an FCS game, but it should be an easy win and the first time to see BOB coach in Alumni. Show up and make some noise.

Bottom Line
BC is winning this game. No one needs to get hurt. Just keep it simple and sound. 

Final Score: BC 38, Duquesne 7

Bill O'Brien era opens with a bang

During the game, I tweeted a bunch, but here are some post-game thoughts on BC's upset of Florida State. 

BOB went on the road against a ranked team looking to bounce back and punched them in the mouth. BC purposely came out and dominated the clock and the game with its OLine. It was a thing of beauty and a reminder of so many great BC teams of the past. And I know it is only Week 1, but there was a preparedness and calmness to the gameplan and the game management that we haven't seen in a long, long time. Despite very humid conditions and plenty of mistakes, BOB was composed on the sidelines and didn't do anything either too stupid or too conservative. It was just right. We've seen many BC coaches struggle to get that first win over a ranked opponent. BOB did it in game 1. 

If you had told me we would win in Tallahassee, I would have predicted a huge game from Castellanos. He was good, but not his best...and we still won. That's a testament to the OLine, the running backs and the entire D.

The D looked transformed. There is not a lot of new talent, so this is a case of "coaching them up." They were much more aggressive than any unit Hafley produced. They also seemed very comfortable in the new scheme considering it is Week 1. They showed lots of different looks and didn't have many mental mistakes. 

There is a lot of football to play and I am sure we will have some rough moments, but for the first time in a long time it doesn't feel like there is a ceiling on what BC can do. 

BC-FSU preview

A new coach. A new season. A new era. I am all about the fresh start. I have faith in O'Brien in the long-term, but I don't know what to expect for this season. Will he get more out of the current talent than Hafley and his crew did? Will he build the offense to Castellanos' strengths or force him into a scheme that calls on him to pass a lot? We don't know. But I do have faith. I think he will overachieve this year and in the long run at BC. I think Castellanos is a special talent and a good coach will make something special happen with him. And it all starts Monday night.

My season predictions (I will probably always predict that BC will win in my game previews.)

at FSU. W
Duquesne. W
at Mizzou. L
Michigan St. W
Western Kentucky. W
at UVA. W
at Virginia Tech. L
Louisville. L
Syracuse. W
at SMU. W
UNC. L
Pitt. W

8-4 (5-3 in ACC play). It would be a huge season and get us to a mid range ACC bowl. We win that and go into the Year 2 with a lot of momentum. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
The tragedy of the Gaudreau brothers reached well beyond BC and hockey news. I don't have anything new or insightful to say. I can't imagine what the family is going through and I know the BC Hockey community is still in shock. I will pray for the family. 

Three Simple Keys 
1. Stick with the run. Our gameplan should be similar to what Georgia Tech did with the 'Noles in Ireland. We need to keep pounding the ball, wear them down and hope for a few game breakers.
2. Don't allow explosive plays in the passing game. DJ will check down as long as we are disciplined in our coverage. 
3. Win the turnover battle. We are going to need a little luck and we need to be careful.

Gambling Notes
-- FSU leads the series 15-5
-- FSU has won five in a row
-- BC hasn't won in Tallahassee since 2008
The current line is BC+16.5

Factoid
A BC coach hasn't lost his BC debut since TOB in 1997.

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse-Ohio. The Orange have a new coach too and went in an entirely different direction in their hiring process. It will be interesting to see how Brown does there and if his recruiting lives up to the media hype.

BC is in trouble...if we can't get to the QB. What was so frustrating about the Hafley era is that we never developed a dynamic defense. FSU won't tell us everything, but we will need to create pressure if we want to beat top teams.

I hope to see...a huge game from Castellanos. Last year was fun. This year could be special. We will have a national stage on Monday night. It is a great chance for TC to get the attention of the college football world. 

Bottom Line
I think we match up well against FSU and getting them off of a tough loss overseas is perfect. Their confidence is faltering. If we show up and dominate the lines, I think the 'Noles will break mentally. I think we work them over and pull away late.
Final Score: BC 31, FSU 17