BC-UConn preview

Must win games against UConn: so much fun! I’ve been balancing the apologist/critic tight rope on twitter for weeks now. Let me clarify it a bit more here. I have faith in O’Brien and think he will get us to Addazio-level of success or better, yet don’t think things have gone well this year. That’s because he has made mistakes with game management, might need to tweak the coordinators, maybe made a mistake at QB and didn’t hit on enough portal targets to give us some depth on D.

But I hate the constant: you can’t win at BC arguments. Especially when people use money as the primary talking point. BC is spending. Are we spending like Ohio State? No. But are we losing to Ohio State? No. We lost to teams with comparable spends. Does BC need to invest in Football? Yes. But we are never going to win the arms race. But people complaining about money need to realize that we’ve always spent less than others. At least now it is all out in the open.

The guys who win long-term at BC figure out a model with regards to roster management and developing players. The model is different from coach to coach and era to eras. But it is still up to O’Brien to find guys who can win. I think he will get there.

The other aspect of long-term success that O’Brien needs is a watered down schedule. We need to play three cupcakes every year. Those three wins are how you build a program. In that approach BC has a better W-L record each year and then all of a sudden you are winning 8 or 9 games and can finally take on bigger non-conference opponents. This will be especially important with a 9-game ACC schedule. It is important to remember that as we play UConn. This can and should be a “get well” game. We should be playing UConn every year.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Billy O needs to be less defensive in his press conferences. Having done this for a long time, one of the O’Henry aspects of BC is that we don’t get much media attention so the coaches inevitably end up paying attention to what’s being said on message boards and social media. Which is a big mistake on their part. They always preach blocking out the distractions, but they are clearly sensitive to it. Ignore us. We are not making tackles or calling plays. The administration does not care what the internet fans think. The big donors pay attention, but they are busy too and don’t know all the comings and goings. Don’t worry about any of it. Provide pat answers, cliches and the occasional smile and move on.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stretch the field with the passing game. We need some big plays because we are not consistent enough to have methodical drives over and over again.
2. Get some defensive turnovers. The past two weeks have been bad and we haven’t gotten the stops. We need to be more aggressive and get lucky.
3. Do a better job with blitz pick up. Give the QBs time or else the other teams will keep coming with it.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 13-2-1
-- Mora is 1-1 vs BC
-- BC is 2-4 against the spread this year
The current line is BC-1.5

Factoid
This is the first of two independents that BC will play this year.

Scoreboard watching UNC vs Cal. Thank goodness for the trainwreck in Chapel Hill. It has caused enough commotion in the ACC and in the Boston media that no one is really paying attention to our season.

BC is in trouble if... Reisig plays in a tight game. I am not married to Lonergan. He could be in a rough patch or just not that good. It wouldn’t be personal if we move on. But it would bother me that Billy O misjudged and/or mismanaged the QB situation two years in a row.

I hope to see…The D have a big day. We’ve had enough young guys play. I would like to see it start to pay off.

What ChatGPT Thinks: "I think UConn has a good shot at pulling off the win." 

Bottom Line
I believe. This game is winnable. We just need to play a more consistent and mistake free game. I think it will be tough but we score enough and the D is opportunistic enough to get the win.
Final Score: BC 28, UConn 20

BC-Clemson preview

A “Year from Hell” is unfortunately not new to BC fans. But the challenge for me with bottoming out under a new coach is always the timing. In my opinion, it is a really bad sign when it happens outside the first season. Losing in the first season can be excused by everyone – fans, recruits, the media, even the school leadership. When you lose like this in Year 2, everyone says “what happened?” Why I am bothered by it happening outside of Year 1, Billy O can do a lot to help the narrative. Put the Pitt game behind you, upset a few teams down the stretch and end with a win or two. It all starts Saturday with Clemson.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
The first major renovation to Alumni became official last week, when BC began sales of their premium Club-level seats. The seats and access are carrying a large price tag, but the change is overdue. Next they need to announce a true renovation to the rest of the stadium. Seating, walkways, food service and bathrooms all need to be improved. I also think Vanderbilt and Army have provided good examples of how smaller stadiums can do these sorts of renovations in phases while the season is going on.

Three Simple Keys
1. Pass first and use the run later. We keep forcing the run and it causes too many three and out drives and puts us in a hole. Let’s pass first and then see if the run game opens up later.
2. Win the turnover battle. It is probably the only way we are winning this game
3. Contain Klubnik on broken plays. We have let opponents break games open on broken plays again and again. It will start with the better tackling but also involves contain and sticking with your assignments.

Gambling Notes
-- Clemson leads the series 21-9-2
-- Dabo is 6-1 at Alumni
-- Clemson has won 12 straight in the series
The current line is BC+14

Factoid Dabo’s first victory as a head coach was at Alumni when he was still serving as the interim coach.

Scoreboard watching
Pitt-FSU. I am curious to see how Pitt does this week. They obviously looked much better than their record last week. I also think people have figured FSU and Castellanos out. Will Pitt look really good again?

BC is in trouble if…we can’t sack Klubnik. We are not generating much pressure. We need to get creative and bring him down.

I hope to see…the Lonergan we saw in the Michigan State game. He had confidence and poise. It has faded since to the point where I thought he should be pulled last week. We know what he can do. Let’s see it.

What ChatGPT Thinks: "based on the odds and expert predictions, Clemson is the strong favorite to win."

Bottom line I hate to do it. I always talk myself into believing, but this is a game where I don’t see us winning. I hope I’m wrong. I think we will play better this week. Maybe even lead at the half. But I think it becomes high scoring and we can’t keep up.
Final Score: Clemson 42, BC 31

BC-Pitt preview

Things are not good. We just went through back-to-back games as favorites and blew double-digit leads. The schedule is only going to get tougher from here. My belief that we would manage the schedule and season well is gone. But I don’t want to see the team rollover. If anything momentum and pride is all we get from here on out. I don’t know what to expect, but I would feel a lot better about everything if Billy O gets a win this week.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I wonder what Father Butler thinks about the season so far. I thougth of him when I caught a glimpse of the new chaplain on the sidelines of the last game. Father Jack has so much institutional knowledge of BC Football, I think Billy O could use him right now as a calming presence and for some perspective. It also must be frustrating for Butler to watch the team he has been a part of for so long struggle when he's gone. Plus the success of BC Football has an impact on the new job he is about to take over.

Three Simple Keys
1. Turnovers at the goal line. Three losses all include three turnovers right when we are about to score. I would love to blame bad luck, but it has been bad decisions. That needs to end this week.
2. Don’t force the run. Narduzzi is going to be aggressive and try to make us one dimensional. We need to dictate pace and play our type of game, so let’s throw it early.
3. Get pressure from the front four. It has been bad. We need to try different guys or add some more stunts and twists because these guys haven’t made enough plays.

Gambling notes
-- Pitt leads the all time series 18-16
-- BC is 1-3 at Acrisure Stadium
-- Narduzzi is 2-3 vs BC
The current line is BC+6.5

Factoid
Since Bcknell, BC coaches are 5-1 on their first trip to Pitt. Hafley is the only one who lost on his first time playing in Pittsburgh.

Scoreboard watching
Florida State-Miami. Miami needs to hang on to keep the ACC relevant. It will also be interesting to see how Castellanos bounces back from the UVA loss.

BC is in trouble if…Lonergan throws more picks. It might not be fair to put it all on him, but if he makes mistakes, I think this game will get away from us.

I hope to see…the same Oline combo as last week. It was a nice improvement.

What ChatGPT Thinks: "If I had to pick: Pitt wins, likely by a 1–2 touchdown margin."

Bottom line
While I am frustrated with where we are and how Billy O has managed the games, I am not giving up. I still think we can score on these guys. If we are going to win, it has to be through the air. I think we light it up and snap the losing streak.
Final Score: 35-24

Cal-BC preview

I tweeted this after Tuesday’s press conference, but Billy O was a little annoyed with the media this week. He also showed frustration and anger after the Stanford loss. Because we are all still new to following his highs and lows, I don’t know how to read his emotions or what they mean for BC Football. I am hoping that the frustration is more of the “how did we lose that game" type of anger vs “what have I got myself into” feeling. In the end, his feelings or moods don’t really matter. What matters is BC winning this weekend. I don’t think Billy O is a bad coach, but if he is going to be special at BC, he needs to show he can win the “stop the bleeding” games like this.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I went to the Army-North Texas game last week. It is always good to see other teams and other stadiums and helps provide some perspective on BC and being a BC fan. All the things we worry about: NIL issues, the portal, recruiting, game management, keeping up with the Jones. It is not unique to BC. Every school faces it in some form or another. And most fanbases feel tortured in one form or another. Even with that renewed perspective, I really want BC to win this weekend.

Three Simple Keys
1. Hold onto the ball. Sometimes it is that simple. If we don't turn the ball over at the goaline against MSU and Stanford, we are undefeated right now.
2. Better tackling. I am surprised this is an issue. Billy O got the guys to cut down on penalties. Solid tackling seems like another fundemental skill that he would perfect. It seems like our guys are constantly diving at ankles. That's got to stop.
3. Contain explosive plays. We need to force Cal to dink and dunk and make mistakes.

Gambling notes
-- BC is 2-1 against the spread this year
-- Billy O is 7-1 in Alumni
-- Cal is 1-3 in ACC road games
The current line is BC-6.5

Factoid
BC has only played Cal once. We beat them at Alumni in 1986

Scoreboard Watching
Louisville-Pitt. Both are on our schedule and I don’t have a good feel for either team. Because of our losses we will probably need to beat both.

BC is in trouble if…the Oline is bad. Last week they moved guys around a bit mid-game and it didn’t help. We need to dominate upfront or else Lonergan will not have a clean pocket and we won’t be able to run the ball.

I hope to see…a good crowd. Last week was such a killer to mood and mometum. There is still a lot of football left. I hope the fans show up and are into it.

What ChatGPT Thinks: "No one can predict with certainty, but based on recent stats and expert models, **Boston College** is slightly favored."

Bottom Line
I am talking myself into a bounce back game. O’Brien is correct. We’ve given these games away. I think it gets cleaned up against a Cal team trying to fix their own situation. I think we score a lot early again but this time hold on in the second half.
Final Score: BC 38, Cal 21

BC-Stanford preview

Last week was frustrating, but encouraging. However, in the post-game it was clear that Billy O was mad. That’s good. I don’t want him to burn out or lose hope, but for us to push through and get to the next level (which is only eight wins) we need a leader who is not settling and is pushing through. Billy O still has the fire and I love it.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
BC didn’t make a big deal out of September 11 this week. A few social media posts, but seemingly less than previous years. Maybe some of it was sensitivity in the wake of the Charlie Kirk assasination, but maybe it is also time. I imagine many of the people running BC’s various social media accounts were either not born in 2001 or so young that they don’t have any real memory of it. Also, BC purposely separated the memory and celebration of Welles Crowther from September 11 years ago. I don’t want to shame BC into putting up 9/11 posts that are empty or insincere. I don’t even know the solution…just a thought that I’ve been kicking around since someone pointed it out to me Thursday.

Three Simple Keys
1. Don’t worry about the run this week. This is counter to what I usually preach, but this week I think wasting downs and possessions on an ineffective run game is not worth the effort. BC needs to open it up and light Stanford up. Let’s see them keep up with us in a shootout. Stubbornly running and lowering the score only helps them.
2. Get defensive turnovers. That was the difference between Michigan State 2024 and Michigan State 2025. We need to be aggressive (but smart).
3. Better tackling. On kick coverage and in the red zone. Sometimes it is just that simple.

Gambling Notes
– BC is 0-2 at Stanford
– Billy O has still only won one road game
– Stanford has lost four straight
The current line is BC-13.5

Factoid
The last time BC played at Stanford, it was days before 9/11 and also a late night West Coast game.

Scoreboard Watching
USF-Miami. Can USF play spoiler again? We need the Hurricanes to win and represent the ACC well nationally.

BC is in trouble if…Lonergan turns it over. He’s been so careful with the ball, but as we get more aggressive, some things won’t go our way. Let’s hope it is not an issue this week.

I hope to see…more success when we do run the ball. I don’t want to make it a priority, but it would be nice to see some success.

What ChatGPT Thinks "Boston College has a decent edge. I’d bet on Boston College to win this one — something like 27‑16 (just a guess)."

Bottom Line
Based on his dealings with the media this week, I think Billy O is not resting on his laurels. I think he will be aggressive in his gameplan and in his game management. I think BC starts the scoring early and never looks back.
Final Score: 35-14

BC-Michigan State preview

Last week was nice but it really meant nothing. This week will be the first test and also might be the most pivotal game of the season. If you get a win this week, the schedule lines up pretty well to go bowling. If we can’t go on the road and beat an improved but still fledgling Michigan State team, then perhaps this year will be a bit of a setback for BC. I think we can do it, but we will have to be sharper than we were against Fordham.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
For all the hand wringing about how bad the ACC is or how much the Big Ten and SEC dictate and dominate College Football, here we are in Week 2 and NBC is putting Michigan State-Boston College on national TV in primetime. As the chess pieces move around in College Football, I wonder if many of the schools and programs realize how expendable they are. Does a made-for-TV breakaway league need a team in Iowa? Or three in Indiana? Or two in Alabama or two in Mississippi? BC can’t rest on our laurels and needs to be smart about positioning ourselves, but the Boston market, the Catholic identity and the connected alumni base should keep us in the discussion.

Three Simple Keys
1. Lonergan needs to speed things up. He made some good throws, but I don’t think he is going to have as much time as he did against Fordham. The decisions will have to be much quicker and he has to get the ball out.  
2. Get pressure from the front four. The DBs covered a lot of mistakes last week. The Spartans will adjust for that, so it is up to the DLine to win some battles.
3. Don’t abandon the run game. Stick with it a bit. It should start to pay off. 

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 5-1-1
-- Jonathan Smith is 5-3 at home as Spartans coach
-- Billy O is 1-4 on the road while at BC
The current line is BC+4.5 

Factoid
The last time BC went to East Lansing, Nick Saban was Michigan State’s coach.
 

Scoreboard Watching
UConn-Syracuse. Two future opponents. It will be interesting to see how Syracuse bounces back from their opener.
 

BC is in trouble if…the Oline is not better. We need to control things up front.
 

I hope to see... The DBs change the game like they did last year. The weather will not be a factor like it was last year and Chiles will be more careful, but if we win those passing battles, we win the game.

What ChatGPT Thinks
"If you had to pick a clear winner based on smart consensus: Michigan State is the favorite. But Boston College remains very much in the mix, especially if their explosive offense from Week 1 shows up." 

Bottom Line
I'll admit, I'm a bit nervous. It is only Week 2 yet this game will tell us so much about this season and about Billy O's future at BC. Great coaches win games like this. As for what will happen: we won’t put up the points like we did last week, yet I still think this will be an offensive game. I think Lonergan makes some good decisions and our WRs go off. I think we force a few turnovers and hold on enough on D.
Final Score: BC 38, Michigan State 31

BC-Fordham preview

Welcome back to Boston College Football. The start of this season is about as different as you can expect from last year. We have a returning coach, are playing at home and taking on an FCS school in the middle of Saturday. No spotlight. No buzz. And all of that is probably good. I don’t know what to expect this year. I don’t know if Billy O’Brien knows what to expect this year, so it is best to start learning about the team in a cupcake game against Fordham. Let’s build a little confidence, avoid big injuries and ease into the season. 

What’s on my mind (not totally related to this game)

All of college football remains in limbo. Worries about conference affiliations have taken a backseat to player budgets, expanded playoffs and looming government oversight. BC seems passive and that is probably purposeful. We don’t have enough juice financially to buy our way in, we don’t have enough political power to force our way in and we haven’t been good enough at football to use our brand as leverage. Plus we have a looming change in leadership and non-sports pressures that flagship state schools don’t face. In the long run, I am not as worried about the shifting landscape as I would have been 20 years ago. I think if there is a breakaway league with player employees, BC will be invited to join. Will we join, who knows? But for now, I think BC needs to keep tweaking its pay model annually just enough until we know how this all will work. 

Three simple keys 

1. Establish the run. While the QB battle got all the attention, the OLine turnover is probably our biggest offseason issue. In a game like this, I would love to see the Line work as a unit and push the Rams around. 2. Keep is simple on D. In my opinion, we should play vanilla as possible (few blitzes, lots of zone) and just contain Fordham. We want to keep all wrinkles and new stuff for Michigan State. 

3. Competency on Special Teams. Put last year behind us. 

Gambling Notes 

- BC leads the all time series 5-2 

- Fordham is 3-12 against FBS teams all time 

- BC hasn’t lost to an FCS opponent since 1978 

The current line is BC-37.5

Factoid 

BC has played five fellow Jesuit schools all time in Football (Detroit Mercy, Fordham, Georgetown, Holy Cross, and Marquette). 

Scoreboard Watching 

Notre Dame-Miami. Both teams should be good this year. It doesn’t have the same over the top personalities and hype that the matchup had in the ‘80s but I like the idea that these two are playing and it should mean something. 

 

BC is in trouble if…Lonergan is not sharp. I understand he hasn’t seen much live action in a while, but this is the perfect way to start your BC career. If he struggles, lots of people will be questioning his upside 

I hope to see…No one get injured. The win is a foregone conclusion. Getting out unscathed is not. 

 

What ChatGPT thinks 

"Boston College is expected to crush Fordham, and barring an unlikely upset, the Eagles should dominate this opening weekend game." 

Bottom Line 

BC will win this game. I think Lonergan looks good. I think James will get some time too and also look good. I think we force enough turnovers that is is never really close. 

 

Final Score: BC 40, Fordham 7