Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Season prediction Part III: what will happen

We are about to start our fourth year with Addazio and I don't know what we have. Or maybe, I know what we have and I'm in denial. Last year dashed any hopes that I had that he might be a special coach. This year I am hoping for progress and competency. If we don't get both, then we've entered another lame duck era of BC Football.

I think this year will be okay. If you combine a good (maybe great) defense with an adequate offense and a forgiving schedule, you get to a bowl game. That's what I predict. Below is how I think it will play out. This is my prediction for the season.

What will happen

Georgia Tech. Win. We start our season with one of our toughest matchups. BC does enough well and forces some turnovers to hold onto the win.

at UMass. Win. It is never even close. BC's D holds them under 10 points.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. A tough game on the road early in the season. BC is close, but sees too many drives stall out.

Wagner. Win. All the backups get to play.

Buffalo. Win.  BC runs on them and gets a comfortable win.

Clemson. Loss. Not close. Clemson is riding high and we can't even play spoiler.

Syracuse. Win. I think Syracuse's coaching transition is going to be a little rough. BC wins easy.

at NC State. Win. This is a big one and gets people excited that maybe Addazio is getting over the hump.

Louisville. Loss. BC keeps it close, but cannot win.

at Florida State. Loss. In almost the same gameplan as Louisville, Addazio attempts to grind it out but BC cannot score enough.

UConn. Loss. This is a classic BC WTF and kills much of Addazio's goodwill. At this point we realize he's more TOB than he will ever be Urban Meyer.

at Wake Forest. Win. We rally back from the UConn loss, but there is still a bad taste in everyone's mouth.

Finishing 7-5 (4-4 in the ACC) puts BC in a bowl. But no one wants us. We end up in Detroit and play Minnesota. BC wins and Addazio records his first bowl victory and his best season at the Heights, yet it all feels real hollow.

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

BC's season is set up for a bounce back. The schedule is easier. The Offense should be better and everyone is a little older. Yet, the key for a great season is the Defense. If the Defense is as good as it was last year, this team will be one of the most surprising teams in college football. I think there will be some other issues this year, but I could see the season playing out like this

As a reminder, this is not what I think will happen. My actual prediction gets posted tomorrow.

Best Case Scenario

Georgia Tech. Win. The Offense looks better. The Defense deals with the Triple Option and everyone comes back from Ireland happy.

at UMass. Win. This game should not be an issue.

at Virginia Tech. Win. Another tough, early test. It is close and low scoring but BC pulls it out.

Wagner. Win. Most of the starters rest after the first half.

Buffalo. Win. With the win, BC improves to 5-0 and is ranked heading into the Clemson game.

Clemson. Loss. A huge, attention getting game. Campus is rocking and the team plays well early, but can't keep up with Clemson in a shoot out.

Syracuse. Win. Since we only seem to have close games in the Carrier Dome, this one is an easy win.

at NC State. Win. BC moves back into the polls after taking down the Pack.

Louisville. Win. This is the sort of game that turns a good season into a great one.

at Florida State. Loss. Another big game where BC comes up short, but still a respectable showing.

UConn. Win. Total domination.

at Wake Forest. Win. Easy game

This would be an incredible run and end with 10-2 (6-2 in the ACC). Losing to Clemson and Florida State would keep BC out of the ACC Championship Game. However, this sort of record and ranking would help BC's Bowl placement. I could see the Sun Bowl maybe against Oregon State. If we are riding that high, I say we win that game and finish with an 11-2 record and huge momentum for the program. This would also put BC in the Top 10 nationally.

Monday, August 29, 2016

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

The closer we get to this season, the more angry I get about last year. We blew it. We wasted a once in a decade Defense and couldn't get out of our own way in multiple games. Addazio went through excuses as fast as he went through quarterbacks. Bad luck and bad bounces are part of sports, but last year went beyond being unlucky. We were not well coached or well managed. As I put together how bad things might be this season, I started to wonder what happens if we have two terrible seasons in a row. Let's hope it doesn't get to that.


As a reminder, this is not what I think will happen. This is more of a "what if." My real prediction will come later in the week.


Worst Case Scenario

Georgia Tech. Loss. There is huge risk in starting the season against Georgia Tech in a unique road game. We're not ready for their offense and it is a long flight home.

at UMass. Win. This is technically a road game, but the closeness and the opponent make for a nice bounce back after the rough start to the season.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. The Hokies are entering a period of uncertainty, but I still think they have more talent than BC and I still think Lane Stadium will be a tough place to play.

Wagner. Win. Another soft game to pad the stats and the W-L record.

Buffalo. Win. They're more respectable than Wagner, but even in a bad year I can't see BC losing this game.

Clemson. Loss. It will be a national game on campus against a probable Top 2 team. In a bad season they crush us by 28.

Syracuse. Loss. I think 'Cuse will be a mess this year too, but in a bad season I could see BC screwing this one up. If the season does play out like this, morale will be incredibly low at this point.

at NC State. Loss. The Offense still struggles and we now have a QB controversy...again.

Louisville. Loss. It is a defensive slog like last year. It is a loss like last year.

at Florida State. Loss. We play them close again, but there is no way we are winning this one.

UConn. Win. The losing streak ends. But no one feels great about where things stand.

at Wake Forest. Loss. Addazio is still unable to end the ACC losing streak.

This would leave BC 4-8 (0-8 in the ACC). What gets me worked up is that I could see Addazio surviving this sort of terrible season. No other Power 5 team would let a coach go 0-16 in conference over two years, but I think BC is in a weird position. I think Bates is tied to Addazio. I think some around the decision will think that part of the problem is never letting a coach hang around long enough to get a full roster. If it does get this bad, I will be banging the drum as loud as possible (not that it means anything). I don't think it will get this bad, but after last year I can't count on anything.

Sunday, August 28, 2016

BC picks four captains

After messing around with "game day" captains for a few seasons, Addazio decided to return to BC's old ways. The team voted on four captains who will represent the team for the entire season. The honored four are Truman Gutapfel, John Johnson, Tyler Rouse and Myles Willis.

I don't think captains or the idea of game day vs season captains wins any games for a team like BC. But I do think that having four elected leaders can hep build a better team culture. I hope these guys set a good example on the practice fields and the locker room and help BC get out of its rut.

I also hope that these captains set a good example while the team is in Ireland. We don't need any nonsense in a foreign country just as he season starts.

Saturday, August 27, 2016

Welcome to life as a BC fan

BC welcomed the incoming freshmen to the BC family this weekend. It is a nice gesture and helps build community and pride. While there is so much more to BC than just sports, I don't know if any of these kids know what they have bought into as BC fans. There will be highs and lows and lots of wasted emotion, but ultimately it will be fun. We wouldn't keep watching if it were not fun. And hopefully these new members of the BC fan community will see more success and championships than those fans who came before.


Friday, August 26, 2016

Where should BC play next?

With Cal and Hawaii playing in Australia and BC getting ready for Ireland, I started to wonder about future BC road trips. If money is right, there is no reason why BC shouldn't consider future football games abroad. It raises the profile of the school, it generates some fan excitement, it gets a good TV slot and most importantly you can sell it to recruits.

I have mentioned Liverpool before. Given Fenway Sports Groups relationship with Liverpool and Anfield, BC could easily set up a game. I am sure ESPN would throw some extra money at us. The downside is that it might not have the same appeal to fans or other potential opponents.

Sydney, Australia seems like an interesting choice. If this Cal-Hawaii game proves successful, there will be more trips down under. It is a long way from Boston, but it might make for an interesting locale.

Toronto held bowl games, but no one really attempted anything in Montreal. I think it could be interesting, plus it is not that far from Boston. Our fans could make the trip.

There are still many American expats in Germany. There used to getting NFL games. Maybe a college game could draw well.

BC played in Tokyo once before. Why not go back? Like Australia, it would involve a long trip.

Thursday, August 25, 2016

It is all about Addazio

As I read more and more previews, the same issues are mentioned. Can BC's Defense sustain its dominance without Don Brown? Who will step up at QB? Can the Offensive Line come together?  Most of these previews also mention how many close games BC lost last year. (I assume someone from BC is providing that stat.) To me all these issues are interchangable. Every team heads into the season with one or two glaring concerns or an assistant to replace. To me the biggest question is: what has Addazio learned?

Last year was a disaster. Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. While the team was young and hit with injuries, there were still huge, painful, shameful coaching mistakes that cost BC games. As a reminder:

  • the cluster at the end of the Wake Forest game.
  • the questionable clock management against Syracuse. 
  • Sticking with Fadule too long against Notre Dame. 
  • Sticking with Flutie too long against Duke. 
  • But to me, the biggest failure was the inability to cobble together some sort of offense with one of the QBs. 

Addazio changed both coordinators, brought in trusted friend and mentor Paul Pasqualoni and revamped his recruiting. The schedule is manageable. There are no real excuses. If BC doesn't bounce back in a major way then Addazio's story is over. He won't get fired, but we will know what his true potential is. I am still hoping for him to be a passionate TOB. Let's hope he's not just a harder working Spaz.