Monday, August 31, 2015

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

As you'll read later this week, I am fairly optimistic about this team and this season. However, that doesn't mean I am right. The roster is young and inexperienced and last season's two biggest strengths (QB and OL) are huge question marks heading into the season. This is a transition year of sorts for Addazio too. He overachieved with a patchwork roster in Year 1 and Year 2. Now he was to win with his own guys. Will their talent overcome their inexperience? Or will it all fall apart? I don't think this season will be a train-wreck, but if it is, this is how it might play out.

Worst Case Scenario

Maine. Win. But the game is closer than any of us like and the offense struggles with the basics.

Howard. Win. Another cupcake that BC cannot put away. The offense is slightly better but still not ACC caliber.

Florida State. Loss. We get crushed on national TV. The D looks bad and so does Wade.

Northern Illinois. Loss. We cannot keep up with their scoring, which raises lots of questions about our defense.

at Duke. Loss. We struggle on the road. Smith gets some snaps but doesn't look much more comfortable than Wade.

Wake Forest. Win. It is not pretty but our defense shuts them down and we run the ball well enough to snap the losing streak.

at Clemson. Loss. We play well in a loss. The game is low scoring, but BC cannot score enough to win.

at Louisville. Loss. Not even close. Another game where people are searching for answers at QB.

Virginia Tech. Win. This is the surprise win of the season. Fluky things go our way. Bowl hopes are still alive.

NC State. Loss. Brissett is not rattled by our blitzes and they win comfortably.

Notre Dame (neutral). Loss. The Irish are riding high and crush us in our own backyard. Lots of frustrations boil over online with Addazio, with Bates for agreeing to the game and with Wade.

at Syracuse. Loss. This is a tough way to end the season, but we let another game in the Carrier Dome slip away.

This would leave BC at home with a 4-8 record (2-6 in the ACC). Addazio wouldn't be on the hot seat, but there would be new perspective on his first two seasons and high expectations for Year 4. I don't think this will happen, but you never know.

Sunday, August 30, 2015

Season nearing so Boston Media starts to pay attention

With less than a week away from BC Football, it is time for the local media to take notice. The Globe featured Hilliman and posted a season outlook. It will be interesting to see how the Globe's Vega covers the season. Since he missed the Spaz years, he hasn't had to cover a difficult BC football season in a long time. He's also formed a close relationship with Addazio. If the team struggles a bit, I wonder how tough Vega will get with his questions and the angles in his articles.

MetroWest capped off their BC Preview with a feature on Wade. At this point, I just want to see him play. Once we have a glimpse of Wade's progress and upside, then we can reset our expectations up or down as needed.

The Tobacco Road media predict a 6-6 finish for BC.

Saturday, August 29, 2015

Illinois means poaching season starts early

Illinois got the coaching carousel started early when they fired Tim Beckman this week. I predict Addazio will get floated for the opening but don't think he we take it. However, the Illinois move does impact BC. It means that their whole recruiting class is now in play. 

We don't have the roster spots to take many Illinois verbals, but it doesn't hurt to search the roster for any needs. I would also reapproach any player who demonstrated interest in BC in the past.

The other good news about this year's coaching carousel is that many of the likely openings should create opportunities to grab other team's verbals.

We haven't gone head-to-head with UVA for recruits of late, but they sell ACC Football and academics. Whem Mike London gets the boot, we can grab some of their players with the same pitch.

Syracuse doesn't have a ton of guys we need, but they are likely headed for a change. The east coast private school connection should help with any of their verbals we target.

Addazio doesn't like to overdue recruiting during the season. That is why coaching changes work well for him. It is a last minute scramble where Addazio's passion and salesmanship really shine through. I never wish for coaches to lose their jobs, but don't feel as bad about it when BC comes in to rescue recruits.

Friday, August 28, 2015

Soccer wins opener and other links

The Men's Soccer team got the season off to a good start, beating Quinnipiac 1-0.

BCI has the lowdown on the new SuperFan shirt.

BJ Raji is ready for a big season.

Former BC basketball player Jordan Daniels is dealing with the NCAA over eligibility issues. It all started with his preseason games at BC. Donahue is taking the blame for the misunderstanding.

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Previews of Howard and Maine

Here is a preview of Howard. They are replacing much of their offensive talent. As a bad FCS team, I don't think all their new talent will make them suddenly better.

The Maine game wasn't really close last year. Should this year be any different? Maine's QB situation remains uncertain. Against our Defense that could be a huge problem.

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

What we learned from the final scrimmage

BC held its final scrimmage of the preseason and it appears that the offense looked a little better. Here's BC's recap, the Herald's recap and Rivals' recap. The best news was that Wade looked a little sharper and Flutie had his best scrimmage yet. Adddazio seemed pleased in his post scrimmage quotes. Other news:

-- Alex Howell will be BC's kicker and punter. Howell has been the best of the bunch and only missed one field goal. As nice as it would be to have a sure-shot long-range kicker, all we really need from Howell is consistency. If Addazio knows his range, then they can play call around him.

-- Harris Williams still didn't play, but did practice with the first team. Without him the starting OLine was Bowen, Baker, Taylor, Lindstrom, and Cashman. The whole thing could be shuffled when Williams is ready.

-- Robinson's transition to WR is going well. He had a few big plays in the scrimmage. That's a good sign since many of our experienced WRs are dealing with nagging injuries.

While I don't take anything lightly, I do think BC's schedule lends itself to growing pains. If the offense just keeps getting better, the defense should be able to carry them the first two weeks.

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

How much influence will Addazio have on Fitch's play calling?

In addition to our QBs, Todd Fitch enters the season as a bit of a question mark. Will the new BC play caller shape the offense into his own view or will he adopt Addazio's run-first mentality? Fitch will be Addazio's third OC. Based on the play calling with Addazio's previous two OCs, I think we will remain decidedly run first.

BC 2014: 18.6 passes per game
BC 2013:  20.6 passes per game
Temple 2012:  20.1 passes per game
Temple 2011: 15.2 passes per game

For comparison, Fitch threw the ball at a fairly consistent rate in his previous FBS OC jobs.

South Florida 2012: 34.1 passes per game
South Florida 2011: 36.1 passes per game
South Florida 2010: 24.8 passes per game
East Carolina 2009: 32.2 passes per game
East Carolina 2008: 29.8 passes per game
East Carolina 2007: 30.3 passes per game

My guess is that BC will pass less than 20 times a game this year. It makes sense. We have a green QB, a talented backfield and a Head Coach who wants to run. If we do become pass-happy, you know it will be due to Fitch taking over the play calling.