Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Takeout pace and how does the D look?

As I wrote, giving up 42 to Louisville was bad. You will not win many games when that happens. Now some -- including some coaches -- might say that when you score 45 and score many of those points quickly, you are bound to give up more points. Even before this scoring outburst, BC was playing faster i.e. uptempo. And there was the belief that the new pace would impact the D. The faster pace was part of the reason for resting players.

But just because BC is playing at a faster pace, doesn't mean that we can't make fair comparisons between different BC defenses. Instead of total D and points allowed -- which are impacted by pace, we can look at yards per play allowed. In this measure, it is about how good you are down to down. Here are the stats of BC's yards allowed per play under Addazio:

-- 2017 yards per play allowed: 74th -- 5.7 per play
-- 2016 yards per play allowed: 26th -- 5.0 per play
-- 2015 yards per play allowed: 5th -- 4.3 per play
-- 2014 yards per play allowed: 33rd -- 5.0 per play
-- 2013 yards per play allowed: 86th -- 5.8 per play

As you can see, the team was most stingy in 2015, when it was near the top of all defensive statistics. Now, I know that you could still claim that pace impacts yards allowed per play. If D has to face more plays, they might still wear down and allow more big plays that skew the numbers. But I think what this does speak to is that the current D is not as good as last year and clearly not even in the same ballpark as the 2015 D.

The remainder of the schedule is not filled with offensive juggernauts, so the stats do have a chance to improve. But by the time we shoot down this argument, we will just be hit with more excuses about injuries.

Monday, October 16, 2017

Regarding the TMZ-Jamall Anderson stuff

TMZ is reporting that former Eagle Jamall Anderson is peddling a video of BC players from the mid-90s drinking and grinding on strippers. Anderson is also promoting a book about his misadventures. I am going to try to keep my inconsistencies and hypocrisy in check for this, but then again this whole things is stupid.

1. BC is not above bad behavior or coloring outside the lines -- then or now. I sort of touched on this when writing about recent NCAA scandals. I am sure there are plenty of embarrassing things, illegal things (real laws and NCAA laws) and academically questionable things going on at BC right now. I have no proof, but I am also not naive. Do I think BC is bending the rules as much as other schools? Probably not. Does that matter? Not really. We like to say we do things the right way, but sometimes if you are arguing degrees of wrongness, you are probably missing the point. "Everyone's doing it" is not an excuse. My hope is that BC one day takes a real leadership position on all these issues, so that the underground nature of all this becomes unnecessary. Also, I want to point out that this doesn't mean athletes are bad apples. I was on campus during the era of this video and saw regular students break rules, cheat, break laws, and even have strippers in the Mods. That doesn't justify anyone's behavior. My point is these sorts of things are not exclusively driven by sports or jock culture.

2. BC's response was perfect. The school told TMZ, "This 22 year old video, which is alleged to have taken place at Boston College, depicts unauthorized and unacceptable behavior that does not reflect the culture of BC or the standards to which our student-athletes are held." 

The player involved was kicked out of school. His head coach was fired. The AD during the time was essentially fired. BC has nothing to explain. We had problems and dealt with them at the appropriate time in the appropriate way.

Now the school should use this as a reminder to make sure it knows what is going on now, but the Andeson stuff is a non-issue.

3. Jamall Anderson has been a problem and desperate for a long time. Anderson has been trying to sell and tell his story for a long time. He did it 20 years ago after BC kicked him out of school. He did it last year when he was trying to sell his memoir. And now he's doing it again as the Pitino scandal churns up salacious NCAA coverage. Most of the other players involved have moved on, are welcome in the BC Football family and are proud alums. Anderson -- who denied everything for years -- was one of only two players that the DA had proof bet against BC. The others were suspended for betting on sports. But the gambling scandal was not Anderson's first discipline issue at BC. He was kicked out of University housing prior to the betting and was a challenge to the coaching staff his entire time.

He claims he is doing this to help young athletes learn. I don't trust his motives and wonder if 22 years later, he has learned everything. I hope TMZ paid him for the video because that's about all that he's got to show for the wasted opportunities.

Sunday, October 15, 2017

Second viewing thoughts and grades: Louisville

Watching the game back was weird. Watching live I got caught up in the excitement of it all. Watching it with hindsight, you realize that Dillon did most of that damage in the second half! If he had been the focal point from the start her might have rushed for 400 yards. It was a very unique performance. We don't know if this game was a turning point or will just be a footnote. We do know that it was fun to watch.

Offense: A

I don't think this game will cause a QB controversy since neither were perfect. Brown started running more. His passes were off throughout. Wade hit his passes early, but anything that wasn't a quick easy throw was a problem. I am not on the Wade bandwagon yet, but he does deserve credit for coming in and helping the team.

Dillon was really good. The numbers and the highlights tell most of the story, but even on more basic plays, he was pushing for an extra yard or two and he made good cuts. Out running DBs is a great sign. Hilliman's carries weren't that effective. He was good catching the ball. Levy got a few more touches but didn't break anything big.

The Tight Ends -- Sweeney, Martin, Garrison, -- all looked good on those short passes and cutting up field after the catch. Unfortunately the other guys didn't get nearly as many clean passes thrown their way. Brown missed Walker, Smith and White. Wade missed White too. Thadd Smith looked good on the sweeps.

Dillon doesn't have that sort of day without the OLine. Phillips looked good and opened up some holes. Montiero was also good. As a group, all five really got a good push on the Louisville DL.

I thought BC was going to have to pass to win. It turns out I was wrong. Even before Dillon's big runs, it was clear BC was going to try to overpower the Cards. Loeffler also deserves credit for going with the hot hand and for giving Wade some easy throws to get acclimated.

Defense: D

Of the different BC position groups, the DLine was the best. Wyatt Ray had a big INT as he dropped into coverage. Ray Smith helped clog the middle. Merritt was solid. Allen got beat a few times by Jackson and still struggles when he is the read point of the zone option. Landry was tentative and didn't look completely healthy.

The LBs missed a good bit of tackles and were really slow when trying to chase down Louisville's skill guys. Schwab was productive but didn't have his best game. Lamot was just ok.

The DBs got lost, fell or burned too many times. They also saved the game with the strip, fumble and fumble recovery. Moore was the best on Saturday, despite some issues. Denis was fine. Harris didn't look 100%. Yiadom was oky. Cheevers deserves credit for the fumble.

I like Jim Reid. I think he is a good guy and can be a good coordinator. But I am worried that we don't have a solution for the zone read. Jackson is a special player, but every team beats us with it. Allen might be too slow for it. I also am getting frustrated with the big plays. If you are going to blitz less, you better be sound behind it.

Special Teams: B

Walker was very aggressive again and it helped set the tone.

The kickoffs were fine. Knoll punted well.

The coverage was good.

Lichtenberg made the game winner. Congrats. He also missed a FG that could have given BC cushion late. I really hope the misses are temporary or Addazio might need to make a change.

Overall: B+

When you score 45 but only win by three, there are some problems. Our special teams issues and defensive issues mentioned above have been consistent and Addazio has not fixed them. We are more than halfway through the season and not finding real solutions. That is why I am far from confident that this will turn into a win streak.

But for one week, a special day from a special player carried BC to victory. Addazio deserves credit for finding a guy like Dillon and getting him to campus. Now he needs to turn Dillon into a reliable weapon who can perform like that every week.

Saturday, October 14, 2017

Dillon runs over Louisville

That is why we watch. We watch to see a guy like AJ Dillon breakout on the scene and run over and through Louisville's D. We watch to see Wade come off the bench to make some critical plays. We watch to see BC win on a kick with seconds left. It was a nerve racking ending, but it was certainly worth it.

There were some issues, but I won't harp on that now.

I know some of you fear this type of win will save Addazio's job. Don't focus on that now. Be glad for the players and coaches that bust their asses representing BC. They deserve our support and that was a great win.

The post-game Periscope is below.

I will have second viewing thought and grades up late Sunday.


In-game comments post: Louisville

Clemson pulled off an upset Friday night. Iowa State pulled off a huge upset last week. Why not us? Why not now? Let's go BC!

Leave your thoughts and comments below.

You can also follow me on twitter.

Friday, October 13, 2017

Friday picks

Last week I went 5-5. That should be a disappointment, but with the way I've been picking, it was an improvement. This week there were plenty of home underdogs, which makes things tricky.

Picks in bold

Clemson-23.5 at Syracuse

South Carolina+3.5 at Tennessee

NC State-10.5 at Pitt

Florida State-7.5 at Duke

Rutgers+2.5 at Illinois

Michigan-7 at Indiana

Auburn-7 at LSU

Vanderbilt+3.5 at Ole Miss

Northwestern-3 at Maryland

Virginia-3.5 at North Carolina


Last week I went 5-5. For the season I am 28-30-1.

Thursday, October 12, 2017

BC-Louisville preview

This season needs something unpredictable to happen. My preference would be for that unpredictable thing to be great and benefit BC. But something has got to change (style of play, scheme, attitude, starters, or anything). There is such apathy and boredom surrounding BC Football right now. Last week a ranked Virginia Tech team on a Saturday night couldn't come close to filling Alumni. We enter into these games expecting to lose and seem resigned when it happens. The blowouts and inability to score makes it all that more predictable. Does anyone have any doubt that if Louisville scores more than 21 points, they will win this game?

There was a predictability and stubbornness to the TOB era, but at least some of the games were in doubt. BC pulled off the occasional upset or the occasional second half comeback. With Addazio, we know that if he is not leading at halftime, we are not winning. I've already called for his job. Now I just want something to shake up the season.
 
What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Are Louisville and BC that different? When the Cardinals' Athletic Department blew up a few weeks ago, it was easy to sit back and justify our losing as more pure than their winning. I am starting to wonder though, should we feel we are doing things the right way? They are winning -- by doing lots of cheating -- but we are losing and still comprising ourselves somewhat. I am pretty sure BC does not use of prostitutes or illegal brides, but I know we make plenty of exceptions for student athletes and accept behavior from coaches we would not accept from normal employees. How much do those degrees of compromise matter?

It is easy to say now we wouldn't make the deal with the Devil. But I want to win. That sort of longing for more was what got Faust too.

Three Simple Keys
1. Attack throw the air and down the field. Louisville's pass D is bad. We need to be aggressive and establish momentum early.
2. Don't allow Jackson to run. I don't know if spying will work. I don't know if that will open up their run game in other ways, but we've been bad against running QBs. We can't let that happen this week.
3. Use the zone read often. There are big plays to be had. Stop worrying about Brown's durability and start worrying about winning games.

Gambling Notes
-- Petrino is 38-6 at home while at Louisville
-- He is 3-0 vs Addazio
-- Louisville has won four straight in the series
The current line is BC+22

Factoid
BC does not currently have any Kentucky residents on the roster. The Bluegrass state was never a hotbed for BC, but with all the Cincinnati recruiting, we managed to pick up a kid or two from Kentucky over the years. It is probably not a surprise that Louisville does not have any players from Massachusetts or any other part of New England.

Scoreboard Watching
As the season moves on and the losses pile up, what other teams are doing becomes less relevant. What does become relevant are how other "hot seat" coaches perform. Their programs will be our competition for a new coach. I will be paying attention to South Carolina-Tennessee as the Volunteers look like they will have the first pick of the top coaches this time around on the coaching carousel.

I hope to see...
Mike Knoll not have to punt. He's having a great year and has a very good chance of ending up all conference, but if he is not punting, that means BC is scoring...or at least trying to score.

BC is in trouble if...
We can't get big plays. Call them chunk. Call them explosive. Regardless of the term, we need a few big plays, because the methodical drives are not resulting in points.

Overall
If you want to call it progress, I think this game will feel a bit like the last week. BC will slow down the Cards, but the game will never be truly in doubt. I think a late score makes the game seem respectable.
Final Score: Louisville 28, BC 20

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Where is the next win coming?

To turn the corner, Addazio will have to start winning. He is quick to point out how tough the schedule has been. He doesn't mention that the remaining schedule is not that favorable to BC. Of the six games left, BC is only favored in one (UConn). What's interesting based on the ESPN ratings is that although the predicted point spreads have shrunk against UVA and Syracuse, the probability of BC winning hasn't moved all that much. BC currently has a 30.8% against Virginia and a 27.8% against Syracuse. If Addazio wants to keep his job, he has to win all three. Would those five combined wins be enough for Jarmond?

At 5-7 with a new AD and a shrinking fanbase, Addazio's future would be a hot topic among those who still care. If he gets to six wins, then BC goes to a bowl game and he is safe for another year. But where would that sixth win come from?

Louisville looks to be BC's toughest remaining opponent. The game is on the road and Louisville's weakness -- pass defense -- is the area where BC is least capable of exploiting something. ESPN only gives BC a 10.8% chance of the upset.

Florida State might be the best chance of an upset. They are struggling and trying to break in their backups. The game is also at Alumni.

Addazio has a good record against NC State, but they look much improved.

Last year, Addazio stopped the bleeding long enough to get to a bowl. This year, I think he has enough talent to do so again. Let's see if he has the team's belief and a game plan sound enough to do it.