Thursday, October 24, 2024

BC-Louisville preview

Last week was rough. Not only did we get beat up and make mistakes, but we also had to deal with the tease. For one quarter, hope was alive and so was BC. Yet Lucy pulled the football away again and we ended up flat on our backs. This is not a Bill O'Brien thing. It is life as a BC fan. Last week, I said we need to see if Billy O is the kind of coach who can stop the bleeding. It would be great if he pulls it off this week and give us hope again.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Once again BC is in a national spotlight time slot. This should continue to help our overall TV/Media profile. We are up against the World Series and a dream matchup of Yankees-Dodgers, yet I don't think that will really impact BC all that much. Baseball ratings are down and while we have lot of BC/Dodger fans and BC/Yankee fans, I think most will probably watch both games.

Three Simple Keys
1. Cut the crap with the option plays.
TC has to protect the ball, but it is no coincedence that two of the killer fumbles came on option-like plays (a hesitant pitch and a sloppy mesh handoff). To do those things well takes lots of reps. If you do them casually, you make mistakes. Keep TC as a runner, but also keep it simple and make sure whatever we run, we can execute well.
2. Dominate on the Oline. This Louisville D is not strong. But we need to win upfront.
3. Win the turnover battle. If we are doing bend but don't break, we need some key stops and picks.

Gambling Notes
-- Louisville leads the series 9-7
-- BC hasn't lost at home to Louisville since 2016
-- Louisville is 3-4 against the spread this year
The current line is BC+7.5

Factoid
Both O'Brien and Brohm have winning records in the Big Ten.

Scoreboard Watching
Navy-Notre Dame doesn't really impact BC, but I am curious to see if Navy can keep their run going. If the 12-team format is going to work, we will need a few Cinderellas every year to keep it fresh.

BC is in trouble if...we can find a way to get Tommy going. He is dynamic and we've seen if work under Hafley. We can't force him into something he is not. We need to give him space and let him make plays.

I hope to see...a clean Field Goal. Is that too much to ask?

Bottom Line
I don't feel great about the slide, but I am talking myself into a BC win. Tommy has a huge game and the D makes a few key plays. 
Final Score: BC 31, Louisville 17

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