Thursday, January 31, 2008

Can BC beat Carolina?

The oddsmakers have BC as a 21.5 underdog. We are coming off two tough losses and facing the best team in our conference on the road. I am not optimistic about tonight. The little hope I have is based on Maryland's upset of UNC at home earlier this month. BC beat Maryland. Like Maryland, BC runs the flex. We have a chance, right? Not really. Maryland didn't beat UNC so much as UNC played poorly and still only lost by 2. The Heels shot .380 from the field. They run an up tempo offense that is predicated on fast break points. They are rarely going to miss that often.

There is hope. Regardless of how it happened, Maryland showed the UNC is not invinceable. If BC is to win the following needs to happen:

-- Slow pace. BC needs to keep this game in the 60s. BC also needs to focus on transistion D. Too many mental lapses have allowed opponents to score easy buckets.
-- Get the the foul line. When we've played well against Roy Williams' teams it has been by getting to the foul line. We don't have the inside players we used to, but there is no reason that the big men and Rice can't penetrate and draw fouls.
-- Don't turn the ball over. Due to UNC's tempo, possesions are critical. We don't rebound well, so protecting the ball becomes that much more important.

I hope we win. Stealing this game could change the course of the season. But it is going to take a near perfect performance.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

First reaction to 2008 schedule

This schedule has been floating around the past few days. I was waiting for an official announcement, but since the Globe went ahead and published it, I figured I might as well weigh in too. My thoughts follow. Please add your own in the comments section.

Aug. 30 at Kent State
Sept. 6 vs. Georgia Tech
Sept. 20 vs. Central Florida
Sept. 27 vs. Rhode Island
Oct. 4 at Florida State
Oct. 18 vs. Virginia Tech
Oct. 25 vs. Clemson
Nov. 1 at Wake Forest
Nov. 8 vs. Notre Dame
Nov. 15 at North Carolina
Nov. 22 vs. Maryland
Nov. 29 at North Carolina St.


A good start
Last year notoriously opened with three ACC games. This year we get a MAC team at a neutral site (although technically it is a home game for them), Georgia Tech at home in the second week under their new offense, a good but beatable Central Florida team at home, an off week and then URI parents weekend. That is manageable. Regardless of how much the offense struggles, our defense should be enough to win those games. 4-0 is likely.

Tough midseason
Putting aside Florida State's recent inconsistency, we have not matched up well against them. On the road makes things that much more difficult. Our second break in the schedule doesn't add much. I would have preferred it later in the season when everyone is more beat up. VT and Clemson are probably the two best teams on our schedule. Fortunately we've played well against both recently and have both at home. At Wake to start off November...not an easy game. This stretch could go about ten different directions.

The final four games
Notre Dame cannot be as bad as they were last season, so that makes this game tougher. But it will be at home and our team and fans will be pumped up. UNC on the road is a tough game but winnable. I expect Maryland to have another down year. Closing out at NC State against TOB is an interesting twist. He'll be in year 2 of his rebuilding, so I like our chances there.

On paper this schedule is less demanding than last season's. Of course once we played the games, we saw that some were tougher than others. It is very early and there are still many things we don't know about our own team, but I think this sets up well for BC. Our new offense gets a few winnable games under their belt before the true tests. I am optimistic and think this will play out well.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Midseason Prouty Ratings

When you drop a few games and have a tough road ahead, everyone has an explanation for why things are going bad and what should be done. I've been attributing the recent struggles to the Freshmen. Upon further review the Freshmen's play doesn't tell the whole story. Take a look at the Prouty Ratings (Prouty is an efficiency measurement used by some college hoops stats guys).

Prouty Rating
[ {Points / (Field Goals Attempted * 2 + FTA) } +
{ (Points + Assists * 2 - Turnovers) / Minutes} +
{ (Rebounds + Steals + (Blocks / 2) - Personal Fouls) / Minutes} +
{ (Minutes / (TEAM TOTAL MINUTES / 5) } * Team Winning Pct} ] / 4


While not perfect, the rating attempts to measure a player's contributions by combing offensive stats, possession stats (defense) and productivity. Here's how the BC players ranked at this point in the season.

Rice 0.486
Sanders 0.416
Raji 0.402
Spears 0.393
Blair 0.339
Roche 0.332
Paris 0.326
Oates 0.315

As you can see, the freshmen are not the problem. Sanders and Raji have been two of our most important players. I think the bigger issue is the front line. All have had their moments, but none of the big men have been consistent enough or productive enough offensively. Our style of play rewards inside players with easy baskets and plenty of rebounds. We're not getting that from Spears, Blair and Oates.

I would like to see some improvement from everyone but I really think the key to the second half comes back to the freshmen. I think we've seen the upside of the front line players. If we want to squeak into the tournament (or worse, avoid a terrible second half), it is going to be on Raji and Sanders to become even better. If they improve their rebounding and are a little more careful with the ball, I think we can weather the storm of the next two weeks and make a late in the final weeks of the season.

TC and Jay McGillis and other links

Another benefit of Tom Coughlin in the Super Bowl is the attention the Jay McGillis story is getting. The Herald and New York Newsday wrote of Coughlin's continued commitment to Jay and the McGillis family.

Here's a short interview with Jared Dudley.

Bob Ryan lost his son Keith Ryan (BCLS'95) to an apparent suicide. There is nothing I can really say other than to offer thoughts and prayers.

Former BC player (who was on campus less than two months) Corey Eason is headed to UMass. Best of luck to him.

Monday, January 28, 2008

Snee story and more Draft stuff

Nice feature on ESPN.com about Giants guard Chris Snee.


The notes section of this story mentions Tribble's struggles at the Senior Bowl.


This profile has Silva going anywhere from the 3rd round to the 5th.


Early enrollee Josh Haden is hoping to start this season. Related to that, this Rivals notes column mentions the rebuilding Jags has to do with the offense. I think most fans assume that it will be Crane as the Ryan replacement. I think Jags is honest when he says the spot is open. Don't be surprised if Davis or Boek emerge this spring.

Weekend roundup

A little R&R with the family kept me away from the blog and a TV during the VT game. From the write ups and second-hand information, it seems like inexperience came back to haunt at the wrong times. Just look at the end of the game...team forces OT on a miracle only to be totally outplayed in the extra five minutes. This week is now critical. The team could be a major hole by next Sunday.


Former BC player and coach Mike Holovak died this weekend. Holovak was 49-29-3 during his time at the Heights.


The News & Observer looked at how the current all ACC team was ranked by the recruiting experts when they were high school prospects.


Here is an interview with BC baseball coach Mik Aoki.

Friday, January 25, 2008

Coughlin at BC and other links

Sorry for the link heavy posts this week. An entire week without a basketball game created a lull for news and analysis. Basketball and recruiting will pick up soon which should create for plenty of blog fodder. I'll also work to get some historical stuff together on QB changes.


The USA Today took an interesting angle -- looking back at the last time Coughlin played David to an undefeated Goliath. Good quotes from former BC SID Reid Oslin.

Another mock draft, another prediction that Ryan heads to Atlanta. I am keeping my fingers crossed.

Here’s a draft preview on Dunbar. It’s on the money (in my opinion) and expects him to go in the late rounds.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

The coolest thing the band has ever done



Now if they could only do that on skates.

ACC invites and other links

Even though the ACC had a decent showing in out of conference play, the perception outside the conference is that the ACC is down. Take a look at this post in the Big Lead that focuses on BC. You're going to hear a lot more of this line of thinking as the season progresses. In my opinion the problem lies with the disappointments like NC State and UVA. When preseason favorites fail to live up to hype and flawed teams like Miami make early runs, the conference appears to be down. Consensus seems to be that the ACC will get five teams in the tournament. I think that's fair, but it is way too early. There is still a chance that six and maybe even seven ACC teams will be dancing in March.


In other news, BC grad and Philly blogger Enrico is subject of a nice write up in the Inquirer. Even if you don't follow Philly sports, his blog the 700 Level is worth checking out.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Another Ryan award and draft speculation

Matt Ryan won the Manning Award. The prize doesn't have a long history but has the unique twist of being awarded after the bowls. Congrats to Matt.


Mel Kiper thinks Matt is the best QB in the draft and the only QB likely to go in the first round. In his latest analysis he sees Ryan landing with the Falcons. I'd love to see him in Atlanta, although I don't think he'd make it to many game watches.


In this recap of the Senior Bowl workouts there is a small blurb on Gosder. His play has been mixed so far.


The last question in this mailbag mentions BC's recruiting.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Flaws with the recruiting rankings

Skeptics and believers alike should read SMQ’s deep dive on recruiting rankings. [Relevant BC note -- we continue to outperform our recruiting rankings.] He concludes that "the rankings are a serviceable baseline for expectation." I am still in the nonbeliever club.

Although I think there is some value to following recruiting, I remain unemotional about the process. The payoffs are just too far away and there are too many outside factors that impact a program from signing day to the time a player hits the field.

As a public skeptic of the recruiting rankings, let me explain myself a bit. Talent matters. The team with the better talent will win the majority of the time. But I don’t think the rankings are a perfect (or even a very good) measure of talent or a good forecast for on the field results. The pillars of my arguments undermining the rankings follow. As always, let me know what you think in the comments section.


Recent history
The major sites use their consistently high rankings of programs like USC, Oklahoma and LSU as examples of how their system works. This boast ignores the actual timelines of these programs accents. UCS, Oklahoma and LSU all won championships and moved into or returned to elite status with respective coaching changes. Carroll, Stoops and Saban all won early in their tenures with less regarded talent. Once the programs established themselves their recruiting took on positive momentum and the recruiting sites followed. Now, nearly a decade later, it is easy to say “we [Rivals, Scout, Lemming] had USC class of 2003 ranked highly and it produced XX Pac 10 titles and XX first round draft picks.” These same sites never wipe the egg of their face when they could have said “our rankings of the late 90s USC classes never would have forecasted their first Championship under Carroll.” Florida provides another example of coaching versus recruiting rankings and how these sites can luck into their forecasts. Ron Zook was hailed by the recruiting sites for the classes he brought to Florida. His performance on the field left the Gator fans disappointed. Enter Urban Meyer. He wins a national championship in his second season. Recruiting sites boast: “see we knew Florida had talent!” Yet how do they explain Urban Meyer going undefeated at Utah with a bunch of two stars recruits? Or turning around a lightly-regarded Bowling Green earlier in his career? Coaching is the easy explanation. Unfortunately for Rivals and Scout, it doesn’t sell subscriptions. Recruiting news does.

Real life
This is something I didn’t appreciate until I had to make and witness personnel decisions in the business world. Although athletic evaluation is less subjective, when trying to fill roles or hire companies determine criteria for a position and then go and find people for those roles…just like sports (the subjectivity comes when placing a greater weight on personality versus tangible things like size and strength). Even the best companies make mistakes. I am sure anyone reading this who has hired someone has seen the perfect candidate not live up to expectations, while the guy or girl you had doubts about rises to the occasion. Heck, there is even something to be said of coaching someone into his or her role. I am sure readers have seen or developed people to become better than they were or outperform their peers who had better degrees or more experience, etc. Why should we expect things do be different in college sports? Bringing in the people with the best resumes in the business world is a start but doesn’t assure success. Bringing in the most sought after recruits in college football is a start but doesn’t assure success. It is about making them better and fitting the pieces together.

NFL
The NFL has a much more qualified applicant pool from which to draft. They have hundreds of hours of footage of likely draftees playing at a very high level. Collectively they are the best talent evaluators in the sport – yet they get things wrong too. It’s the nature of the process. If the best miss when identifying prospects 30% of the time, why should I expect talent evaluators from the national sites to get it right even 50% of the time. They are dealing with a much wider sample size and trying to forecast a process that has many more variables.

I think the rankings become a self-fulfilling process not a baseline. The sites try to stay ahead of the curve with the supposed measurable but there is a lot of luck, hot air and betting on the right programs and coaches. Any evaluation process is going to be filled with with hits and misses. What Tom Lemming or Mike Farrell thinks doesn’t really matter. What matters is that the coaching staff has a good eye for talent, knows how to sell kids on the school and style of play, makes them better once they get on campus and then gives them the plays to beat the guys across the line of scrimmage.

Monday, January 21, 2008

Good take on Cherilus' draft prospects and other links

This is a pretty fair evaluation of Gosder Cherilus. Given how inconsistent he was this past season I still think he'll slip into the second round. But what do I know?


Saturday night the hockey team pulled off a tie in a game BU dominated. Any moral victory was ruined with the news that Brock Bradford broke his arm for the second time this season and is done for the year.


The women's basketball team keeps improving after last year's rough season. Sunday they beat Wake Forest to improve their ACC record to 3-2.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

BC guys in the Super Bowl

Congratulations to Chris Snee of the New York Giants and Dan Koppen of the New England Patriots. They will be representing OLine U in the biggest game of the year. Congratulations are also in order to Tom Coughlin. He's a Syracuse grad, yet we all know he's a BC guy at heart. I'll be rooting for the Giants. Although I am in Atlanta now, I spent my formative years a few exits north of the Meadowlands during the Parcells era. My passion for pro football has waned somewhat but old loyalties die hard. I would also like to see the injured Kiwi pick up a ring with a GMen win.


It should be an interesting time on campus...like a Red Sox-Yankee game in February.

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Sometimes freshmen play like freshman

A promising first half quickly went down the drain. Not much went right as the night progressed. Here are my thoughts:

Likes
-- Spears on the boards. He didn’t have a great night but Spears hit the boards hard and provided some needed points.
-- More positive minutes from Oates. He was only on the floor for 18 minutes, but he hit a big shot and provided some good D. We should’ve gone big more in the second half.

Dislikes
-- The play of the freshmen. Combined they shot 8-25 from the field, 3-11 from the line, turned the ball over 6 times and committed 10 fouls. This is to be expected with young guys in the ACC. You just hope they don’t all struggle on the same night. Raji, Paris and Sanders forced too many bad shots and struggled defensively. The good thing is that we have a week to get them back on track.
-- Foul shooting. Doesn’t take a genius to put this together.
-- Turnovers. As the announcers properly pointed out, BC kept turning the ball over and getting lost in transition

The tough thing about losing a game like this is that Virginia didn’t play that well and we still lost by a ton. A quirk in the schedule leaves these guys plenty of time to lick their wounds. Let’s hope we see the team that killed Wake not the one who played so poorly in the second half.

Football links

This shocked me -- Scout thinks we are a Top 20 team next year. I appreciate the enthusiam...I just think Scout is underestimating the potential struggles of the offense next season.


ProFootball Weekly ranks Matt Ryan as the best QB in the upcoming draft.


Draft Insiders thinks Parcells might take Ryan with the first overall pick. (Thanks to Staar and Tim for the link.)

Friday, January 18, 2008

BC-BU in the New York Times and other links

I am ashamed. It's a real low for this blog when the New York Times is posting BC hockey stories and I am not. I like hockey and love Jerry York. It is just the one sport where being displaced from Boston really has its disadvantages. In the past I've seen one game a year (if I am lucky) and didn't have much to add. With ACC Select I really can't use that excuse anymore. Saturday night I'll be using ACC Select and hopefully will be able to watch both the basketball and hockey games. Also, I'll have an upcoming hockey guest blogger in anticipation of the Beanpot.


In the second portion of this article, you'll see that BC asked super recruit Colin Larmond not to play basketball this year. I feel for MoBeard, but it is a smart move for Colin and BC.


Here is the Kenpom profile of UVA's basketball team. They are coming in with a three-game losing streak and are 0-2 in the ACC. I still think it will be a very tough game and JPJ can get very loud. Should be a good game and a good gauge for our season.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Murphy going to Florida and other links

Prized basketball recruit Erik Murphy committed to Florida. Erik's father Jay starred at BC in the '80s and many had hoped he'd follow in his father's footsteps. No dice. Best of luck to him.


As much as I would love to have Murphy this study puts some numbers around Al's ability to win with under recruited players.


A Mass website will be covering Justin Tuggle and other high school players at the All America Bowl.

Neighborhood battle takes an unexpected turn

On occasion I interact with parents of BC athletes. One of my first recommendations is “don’t read the BC message boards.” I base this advice on history and the nature of the forum. Mostly unmonitored and relatively anonymous posters pick apart all aspects of the players and coaches lives with little worry about fact, slander or the consequences of their posts. I am not condemning the medium. I am active on one board and have spent numerous hours reading and enjoying both. They are vital to BC sports. However, every message board (including those outside of sports) builds up its own patois, list of references and humor that can easily be taken out of context by outsiders. At the end of the day, message boards are not for the faint of heart. If you are easily offended or sensitive, it is best to avoid and ignore them.

That preamble leads me to this bit of news via the Brighton blog: community activists are aware that they are being discussed and mocked on the BC message boards. For better or worse, BC is getting involved. The school has apologized for the behavior of the boards and may take action against Scout and/or Rivals.

In my opinion, BC should steer clear of this whole mess. Neither site is owned or officially affiliated with the school. If these remarks had run in the reader comments section of a Herald or Globe article, would the school feel the need to get involved? In my opinion these activists will never be happy with any BC solution for the Brighton campus (nor any changes to the main campus). Engaging in dialogue about these offensive comments or apologizing for the actions of anonymous message board posters just distracts from the bigger issue at hand -- the land. The neighbors have shown very little flexibility or willingness to discuss realistic solutions. Acknowledging this message board nonsense or even taking partial responsibility just reinforces the activists firmly-held (and unlikely to change) beliefs that BC and its community are a bunch of ogres trying to destroy Brighton.

As for the comments themselves…I don’t condone them. They are in poor tastes. But I don’t think anyone should give them any attention. I’ve seen much worse on the internet. The reality of today’s world (where anything can be said on a message board or blog and personal information is readily available via google) is that the minute these Brighton folks got involved and started writing, campaigning and giving interviews they opened themselves up as targets. (I should know. I receive all sorts of random and often harassing emails from people who don’t like BC sports.)

I would love to see this all get resolved. BC needs the Brighton campus. It would also add to the community around campus. But any long-time observer of the situation can tell you this won’t end smoothly or soon. Let’s move forward. The focus should be on solutions that work, not offensive online nonsense.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Draft news and other links

Here's a thorough profile on Ryan from the Baltimore Sun. Ryan looks like he might skip the Senior Bowl. I don't think it will impact his draft status. The biggest factor is who gets hired where. Teams like Baltimore, Miami and Atlanta need new QBs. But will there respective new head coaches want to go in that direction? I could see Ryan going anywhere from 1 to 15. Wherever he lands, he'll be fine.


Notes on Silva and Dunbar from the Shrine Game. Jo-Lonn is turning heads. Silva is not.


SMQ is taking a look back at the ACC. Part I here and Part II here.


Paul Peterson joined the staff at Southern Utah.


College Hoops Journal broke down every bubble team.

"You ain't Doug Flutie!"

I don't even know where to start on this clip...

If you like Tracy Morgan and you like Doug Flutie, you'll probably get a kick out of this interview that turns into improv of Morgan as a football coach.

WARNING: For those who are at work, are put off by Tracy's humor, or NSFW language, just skip this entry.



(Big thanks to Tim for finding it.)