Thursday, January 31, 2008
Can BC beat Carolina?
There is hope. Regardless of how it happened, Maryland showed the UNC is not invinceable. If BC is to win the following needs to happen:
-- Slow pace. BC needs to keep this game in the 60s. BC also needs to focus on transistion D. Too many mental lapses have allowed opponents to score easy buckets.
-- Get the the foul line. When we've played well against Roy Williams' teams it has been by getting to the foul line. We don't have the inside players we used to, but there is no reason that the big men and Rice can't penetrate and draw fouls.
-- Don't turn the ball over. Due to UNC's tempo, possesions are critical. We don't rebound well, so protecting the ball becomes that much more important.
I hope we win. Stealing this game could change the course of the season. But it is going to take a near perfect performance.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
First reaction to 2008 schedule
Aug. 30 at Kent State
Sept. 6 vs. Georgia Tech
Sept. 20 vs. Central Florida
Sept. 27 vs. Rhode Island
Oct. 4 at Florida State
Oct. 18 vs. Virginia Tech
Oct. 25 vs. Clemson
Nov. 1 at Wake Forest
Nov. 8 vs. Notre Dame
Nov. 15 at North Carolina
Nov. 22 vs. Maryland
Nov. 29 at North Carolina St.
A good start
Last year notoriously opened with three ACC games. This year we get a MAC team at a neutral site (although technically it is a home game for them), Georgia Tech at home in the second week under their new offense, a good but beatable Central Florida team at home, an off week and then URI parents weekend. That is manageable. Regardless of how much the offense struggles, our defense should be enough to win those games. 4-0 is likely.
Tough midseason
Putting aside Florida State's recent inconsistency, we have not matched up well against them. On the road makes things that much more difficult. Our second break in the schedule doesn't add much. I would have preferred it later in the season when everyone is more beat up. VT and Clemson are probably the two best teams on our schedule. Fortunately we've played well against both recently and have both at home. At Wake to start off November...not an easy game. This stretch could go about ten different directions.
The final four games
Notre Dame cannot be as bad as they were last season, so that makes this game tougher. But it will be at home and our team and fans will be pumped up. UNC on the road is a tough game but winnable. I expect Maryland to have another down year. Closing out at NC State against TOB is an interesting twist. He'll be in year 2 of his rebuilding, so I like our chances there.
On paper this schedule is less demanding than last season's. Of course once we played the games, we saw that some were tougher than others. It is very early and there are still many things we don't know about our own team, but I think this sets up well for BC. Our new offense gets a few winnable games under their belt before the true tests. I am optimistic and think this will play out well.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Midseason Prouty Ratings
Prouty Rating
[ {Points / (Field Goals Attempted * 2 + FTA) } +
{ (Points + Assists * 2 - Turnovers) / Minutes} +
{ (Rebounds + Steals + (Blocks / 2) - Personal Fouls) / Minutes} +
{ (Minutes / (TEAM TOTAL MINUTES / 5) } * Team Winning Pct} ] / 4
While not perfect, the rating attempts to measure a player's contributions by combing offensive stats, possession stats (defense) and productivity. Here's how the BC players ranked at this point in the season.
Rice 0.486
Sanders 0.416
Raji 0.402
Spears 0.393
Blair 0.339
Roche 0.332
Paris 0.326
Oates 0.315
As you can see, the freshmen are not the problem. Sanders and Raji have been two of our most important players. I think the bigger issue is the front line. All have had their moments, but none of the big men have been consistent enough or productive enough offensively. Our style of play rewards inside players with easy baskets and plenty of rebounds. We're not getting that from Spears, Blair and Oates.
I would like to see some improvement from everyone but I really think the key to the second half comes back to the freshmen. I think we've seen the upside of the front line players. If we want to squeak into the tournament (or worse, avoid a terrible second half), it is going to be on Raji and Sanders to become even better. If they improve their rebounding and are a little more careful with the ball, I think we can weather the storm of the next two weeks and make a late in the final weeks of the season.
TC and Jay McGillis and other links
Here's a short interview with Jared Dudley.
Bob Ryan lost his son Keith Ryan (BCLS'95) to an apparent suicide. There is nothing I can really say other than to offer thoughts and prayers.
Former BC player (who was on campus less than two months) Corey Eason is headed to UMass. Best of luck to him.
Monday, January 28, 2008
Snee story and more Draft stuff
The notes section of this story mentions Tribble's struggles at the Senior Bowl.
This profile has Silva going anywhere from the 3rd round to the 5th.
Early enrollee Josh Haden is hoping to start this season. Related to that, this Rivals notes column mentions the rebuilding Jags has to do with the offense. I think most fans assume that it will be Crane as the Ryan replacement. I think Jags is honest when he says the spot is open. Don't be surprised if Davis or Boek emerge this spring.
Weekend roundup
Former BC player and coach Mike Holovak died this weekend. Holovak was 49-29-3 during his time at the Heights.
The News & Observer looked at how the current all ACC team was ranked by the recruiting experts when they were high school prospects.
Here is an interview with BC baseball coach Mik Aoki.
Friday, January 25, 2008
Coughlin at BC and other links
The USA Today took an interesting angle -- looking back at the last time Coughlin played David to an undefeated Goliath. Good quotes from former BC SID Reid Oslin.
Another mock draft, another prediction that Ryan heads to Atlanta. I am keeping my fingers crossed.
Here’s a draft preview on Dunbar. It’s on the money (in my opinion) and expects him to go in the late rounds.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
The coolest thing the band has ever done
Now if they could only do that on skates.
ACC invites and other links
In other news, BC grad and Philly blogger Enrico is subject of a nice write up in the Inquirer. Even if you don't follow Philly sports, his blog the 700 Level is worth checking out.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Another Ryan award and draft speculation
Mel Kiper thinks Matt is the best QB in the draft and the only QB likely to go in the first round. In his latest analysis he sees Ryan landing with the Falcons. I'd love to see him in Atlanta, although I don't think he'd make it to many game watches.
In this recap of the Senior Bowl workouts there is a small blurb on Gosder. His play has been mixed so far.
The last question in this mailbag mentions BC's recruiting.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Flaws with the recruiting rankings
Although I think there is some value to following recruiting, I remain unemotional about the process. The payoffs are just too far away and there are too many outside factors that impact a program from signing day to the time a player hits the field.
As a public skeptic of the recruiting rankings, let me explain myself a bit. Talent matters. The team with the better talent will win the majority of the time. But I don’t think the rankings are a perfect (or even a very good) measure of talent or a good forecast for on the field results. The pillars of my arguments undermining the rankings follow. As always, let me know what you think in the comments section.
Recent history
The major sites use their consistently high rankings of programs like USC, Oklahoma and LSU as examples of how their system works. This boast ignores the actual timelines of these programs accents. UCS, Oklahoma and LSU all won championships and moved into or returned to elite status with respective coaching changes. Carroll, Stoops and Saban all won early in their tenures with less regarded talent. Once the programs established themselves their recruiting took on positive momentum and the recruiting sites followed. Now, nearly a decade later, it is easy to say “we [Rivals, Scout, Lemming] had USC class of 2003 ranked highly and it produced XX Pac 10 titles and XX first round draft picks.” These same sites never wipe the egg of their face when they could have said “our rankings of the late 90s USC classes never would have forecasted their first Championship under Carroll.” Florida provides another example of coaching versus recruiting rankings and how these sites can luck into their forecasts. Ron Zook was hailed by the recruiting sites for the classes he brought to Florida. His performance on the field left the Gator fans disappointed. Enter Urban Meyer. He wins a national championship in his second season. Recruiting sites boast: “see we knew Florida had talent!” Yet how do they explain Urban Meyer going undefeated at Utah with a bunch of two stars recruits? Or turning around a lightly-regarded Bowling Green earlier in his career? Coaching is the easy explanation. Unfortunately for Rivals and Scout, it doesn’t sell subscriptions. Recruiting news does.
Real life
This is something I didn’t appreciate until I had to make and witness personnel decisions in the business world. Although athletic evaluation is less subjective, when trying to fill roles or hire companies determine criteria for a position and then go and find people for those roles…just like sports (the subjectivity comes when placing a greater weight on personality versus tangible things like size and strength). Even the best companies make mistakes. I am sure anyone reading this who has hired someone has seen the perfect candidate not live up to expectations, while the guy or girl you had doubts about rises to the occasion. Heck, there is even something to be said of coaching someone into his or her role. I am sure readers have seen or developed people to become better than they were or outperform their peers who had better degrees or more experience, etc. Why should we expect things do be different in college sports? Bringing in the people with the best resumes in the business world is a start but doesn’t assure success. Bringing in the most sought after recruits in college football is a start but doesn’t assure success. It is about making them better and fitting the pieces together.
NFL
The NFL has a much more qualified applicant pool from which to draft. They have hundreds of hours of footage of likely draftees playing at a very high level. Collectively they are the best talent evaluators in the sport – yet they get things wrong too. It’s the nature of the process. If the best miss when identifying prospects 30% of the time, why should I expect talent evaluators from the national sites to get it right even 50% of the time. They are dealing with a much wider sample size and trying to forecast a process that has many more variables.
I think the rankings become a self-fulfilling process not a baseline. The sites try to stay ahead of the curve with the supposed measurable but there is a lot of luck, hot air and betting on the right programs and coaches. Any evaluation process is going to be filled with with hits and misses. What Tom Lemming or Mike Farrell thinks doesn’t really matter. What matters is that the coaching staff has a good eye for talent, knows how to sell kids on the school and style of play, makes them better once they get on campus and then gives them the plays to beat the guys across the line of scrimmage.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Good take on Cherilus' draft prospects and other links
Saturday night the hockey team pulled off a tie in a game BU dominated. Any moral victory was ruined with the news that Brock Bradford broke his arm for the second time this season and is done for the year.
The women's basketball team keeps improving after last year's rough season. Sunday they beat Wake Forest to improve their ACC record to 3-2.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
BC guys in the Super Bowl
It should be an interesting time on campus...like a Red Sox-Yankee game in February.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Sometimes freshmen play like freshman
Likes
-- Spears on the boards. He didn’t have a great night but Spears hit the boards hard and provided some needed points.
-- More positive minutes from Oates. He was only on the floor for 18 minutes, but he hit a big shot and provided some good D. We should’ve gone big more in the second half.
Dislikes
-- The play of the freshmen. Combined they shot 8-25 from the field, 3-11 from the line, turned the ball over 6 times and committed 10 fouls. This is to be expected with young guys in the ACC. You just hope they don’t all struggle on the same night. Raji, Paris and Sanders forced too many bad shots and struggled defensively. The good thing is that we have a week to get them back on track.
-- Foul shooting. Doesn’t take a genius to put this together.
-- Turnovers. As the announcers properly pointed out, BC kept turning the ball over and getting lost in transition
The tough thing about losing a game like this is that Virginia didn’t play that well and we still lost by a ton. A quirk in the schedule leaves these guys plenty of time to lick their wounds. Let’s hope we see the team that killed Wake not the one who played so poorly in the second half.
Football links
ProFootball Weekly ranks Matt Ryan as the best QB in the upcoming draft.
Draft Insiders thinks Parcells might take Ryan with the first overall pick. (Thanks to Staar and Tim for the link.)
Friday, January 18, 2008
BC-BU in the New York Times and other links
In the second portion of this article, you'll see that BC asked super recruit Colin Larmond not to play basketball this year. I feel for MoBeard, but it is a smart move for Colin and BC.
Here is the Kenpom profile of UVA's basketball team. They are coming in with a three-game losing streak and are 0-2 in the ACC. I still think it will be a very tough game and JPJ can get very loud. Should be a good game and a good gauge for our season.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Murphy going to Florida and other links
As much as I would love to have Murphy this study puts some numbers around Al's ability to win with under recruited players.
A Mass website will be covering Justin Tuggle and other high school players at the All America Bowl.
Neighborhood battle takes an unexpected turn
That preamble leads me to this bit of news via the Brighton blog: community activists are aware that they are being discussed and mocked on the BC message boards. For better or worse, BC is getting involved. The school has apologized for the behavior of the boards and may take action against Scout and/or Rivals.
In my opinion, BC should steer clear of this whole mess. Neither site is owned or officially affiliated with the school. If these remarks had run in the reader comments section of a Herald or Globe article, would the school feel the need to get involved? In my opinion these activists will never be happy with any BC solution for the Brighton campus (nor any changes to the main campus). Engaging in dialogue about these offensive comments or apologizing for the actions of anonymous message board posters just distracts from the bigger issue at hand -- the land. The neighbors have shown very little flexibility or willingness to discuss realistic solutions. Acknowledging this message board nonsense or even taking partial responsibility just reinforces the activists firmly-held (and unlikely to change) beliefs that BC and its community are a bunch of ogres trying to destroy Brighton.
As for the comments themselves…I don’t condone them. They are in poor tastes. But I don’t think anyone should give them any attention. I’ve seen much worse on the internet. The reality of today’s world (where anything can be said on a message board or blog and personal information is readily available via google) is that the minute these Brighton folks got involved and started writing, campaigning and giving interviews they opened themselves up as targets. (I should know. I receive all sorts of random and often harassing emails from people who don’t like BC sports.)
I would love to see this all get resolved. BC needs the Brighton campus. It would also add to the community around campus. But any long-time observer of the situation can tell you this won’t end smoothly or soon. Let’s move forward. The focus should be on solutions that work, not offensive online nonsense.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Draft news and other links
Notes on Silva and Dunbar from the Shrine Game. Jo-Lonn is turning heads. Silva is not.
SMQ is taking a look back at the ACC. Part I here and Part II here.
Paul Peterson joined the staff at Southern Utah.
College Hoops Journal broke down every bubble team.
"You ain't Doug Flutie!"
If you like Tracy Morgan and you like Doug Flutie, you'll probably get a kick out of this interview that turns into improv of Morgan as a football coach.
WARNING: For those who are at work, are put off by Tracy's humor, or NSFW language, just skip this entry.
(Big thanks to Tim for finding it.)