BC-Duke preview

This is a perfect bounce back game. Duke is bad. Real bad. Sure, they’ve been close a few times, but most of their opponents have thrashed them. Hopefully BC will enter this game motivated and put it away early.

Theme that won’t be discussed on television
Ted Roof is barely hanging on at Duke and his career shows how quickly fortunes can change. Roof was one of the hottest assistants in the country as Defensive Coordinator at Georgia Tech under George O’Leary. He then left Tech to follow O’Leary to Notre Dame. We all know how that ended. So Roof scrambled to find a job, was hired by Duke as a Defensive Coordinator, then named interim coach midseason, then Head Coach when it seemed like the team responded. As Head Coach he has been unable to turn the Blue Devils around and will probably be an assistant again in the near future. Now imagine if the Notre Dame thing hadn’t blown up in his face. Say he and O’Leary put together a nice run. He probably could have parleyed that job into a head job at a much better program than Duke.

Three Simple Keys
1. Shutdown Duke’s passing game. While the Blue Devils are dead last in the conference in Total Offense, their passing game has been the lesser of the two evils. I think BC should blitz often and force the Blue Devils into mistakes.
2. Get the running game on track. BC’s ground attack hit a low point last week. Against Duke things will inevitably get better. But BC should use it as an opportunity to see what really works. Find an offensive line combination and a lead back (Brooks and Smith should also be considered) and stick with it. BC can experiment this week, but Miami and Maryland are must wins.
3. Rest Ryan. The time off during the Buffalo game seemed to help. Ryan moved better than he had in weeks. I would like to see Crane get into this game as soon as possible, so that Matt is a little less gimpy for Maryland.

Gambling Notes
-- BC is 1-4 against the spread in November home games the last three years
-- This win would tie TOB’s longest home win streak at nine
-- It has been 40 games since Duke beat a division IA team.
The current line is BC-28

What would be a pleasant surprise? TOB taking a fresh look at the running game and giving Brooks and/or Smith some meaningful first quarter carries.

What would be a letdown? A flat start and a narrow win.

What would be a shocker? A loss. Duke scared Wake and Miami, but we are playing at home, at night on national TV, and coming off a bad tasting loss. If this team doesn’t win this game, than they deserve to go to Boise.

Bottom Line
BC will win this game. Regardless of the multiple mental errors against Wake, this team is still pretty mature and capable. I think Duke will try to make it a game, but I think BC just has too much of a talent advantage.
Final Score: BC 38, Duke 14