Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Guest Blogger: Turtle Waxing

With the football world focused on Michigan-Ohio State, Rutgers, and the one loss teams, plenty of good stories are being ignored. Even in the ACC, everyone is talking about Wake, when Maryland has pulled off a very good turnaround. This weekend, the Terps take on BC. Both teams' ACC Title hopes are at stake. To get more info on our foes, I've asked Esquire from Turtle Waxing to guest blog. My questions and his answers are below.


1. Okay, don't take this as an insult, but you guys seem kind of lucky and on paper seem to be doing just enough to win. You've scored 220 points and allowed 201. Most teams with that sort of spread have a .500 record. So set me straight: is this team just lucky or is there another reason things have been so close?

TW: I think it is fair to say that luck has been a major factor in Maryland's winning streak. Ralph Friedgen himself called it "miraculous". You don't win two consecutive games by one point margins without a fair amount of luck. Not only have they won the last five games by a total of 13 points but more amazingly they were outgained by their opponent in every game. I can't recall any team having that kind of trend. As you indicated it defies the law of probabilities. The skill component comes consists of three main factors in my opinion: coaching, special teams and turnover margin. Ralph Friedgen has played a modified version of "Martyball" this year. As a matter of fact he makes Marty Schottenheimer look like Don Coryell. The conservative playcalling is intentional as Friedgen has had little confidence in his offense. He has eschewed taking chances, the Miami game notwithstanding, and has gotten away with winning games in the last few minutes. His kicker Dan Ennis has hit eight field goals in a row and has been essential in the close wins. The return units have been critical in a number of wins and a blocked field goal and fumbled punt return sealed the victories against FSU and Miami. Maryland has had a 6-2 turnover advantage in the last four games. Quarterback Sam Hollenbach has only thrown one interception in the last three games.


2. Hollenbach is putting together a strong season and a nice QB rating. What is the biggest reason for his improvement?


TW: I alluded to the fact that Hollenbach has cut down on his turnovers during the winning streak. He is making the right decisions and not taking unnecessary sacks by holding onto the ball like he had in the past. He is gaining confidence in his young receivers, especially Darrius Heyward-Bey, who had 175 yards against Miami. The other major factor is that for the most part Friegden has not asked Hollenbach to do too much.


3. Against the better teams on the schedule, BC has struggled running the ball. I assume they will keep it in the air on Saturday. What are the strenghts and weaknesses of this year's Terps' D?


TW: The linebackers are the heart of the defense. Erin Henderson and Wesley Jefferson are tackling machines and Henderson has two big interceptions in coverage. Corner Josh Wilson is an All-ACC caliber player and has been phenomenal the last two games. The rest of the defense is mediocre. They have been very good at red zone defense but teams have been able to move the ball up and down the field against this group. The line is average against the run and can muster little pass rush. Maryland normally resorts to blitzes on the edge to get pressure on the passer. The deep middle of the defense is vulnerable in zone coverage. Neither safety is good in pass coverage and will give up big plays.


4. The ACC Atlantic situation is messy. For example. We need to beat you and then hope you beat Wake. How do you see it playing out? Are your fans wrapped up in the different possibilties? And IF Maryland falls to BC this weekend, do you think they could regroup and beat Wake after Thanksgiving?


TW: I see Maryland's luck running out this weekend. I'm still not convinced that this team is tough enough to win a big road game like the one this weekend. I don't see BC beating themselves like Clemson, NC State or Virginia. Wake is a much better team that anyone thought and can exploit the weaknesses of Maryland's defense. I think it is likely that Maryland finishes the season with two losses. If a very flawed Maryland team makes the ACC championship game it would illustrate the weakness of the league this season.


For more on Maryland go to Turtle Waxing

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