Thursday, October 29, 2009

BC-Central Michigan preview

Like last week this game doesn’t mean much in the big picture, but has huge implications in our little world. First, we need to rebound from last week’s loss. Second, we must prove we can win despite the distractions of the transfers. Third, we need to avoid any sort of “trap” game. CMU is very good, but we still should win this game at home for a variety of reasons.

Narrative talking point that you’ll tire of by the end of the game.
“Dan LeFevour made his college debut against BC four years ago.” We may get tired of it especially if he is playing well but it is a legitimate storyline. LeFevour is an interesting case. He was lightly recruited, went to a MAC school, was forced onto the field against a BCS team and then nearly led a comeback. Sometimes we see a glimpse in a freshmen, predict stardom only to find out that game was an outlier. Other times, like in LeFevour’s debut, that first game really is an indicator of things to come. It’s BC’s misfortune to have to face the best CMU QB twice in four years.

Three simple keys

1.Establish the run. This is troublesome when we are thin in the backfield, but I do think we should be conservative in this game, limit LeFevour’s possessions and control the ball.
2.Get pressure on LeFevour. Arizona is one of the few teams that sacked the CMU superstar. We need to bring pressure. The kid showed he could pick apart our zones four years ago. He has only gotten better since.
3. Aggressive special teams. We’ve fair caught many punts over the past few weeks. It is time to help out the offense and return a few. Central Michigan has good, but not great punting. Gunnell needs to make something happen.

Gambling notes

-- BC has covered the spread in the four of their last six against the MAC.
-- Butch Jones is 2-7 against BCS teams.
-- Since the DIA split, Central Michigan has never beaten two BCS teams in one season.
The current line is BC-5.5


Because of the way the calendar fell and a few Thursday night games, we played on Halloween three times in the ‘90s. This is our first Halloween game of the '00s.

Scoreboard Watching

Clemson has a non-conference game, so they are of no concern this week. Instead I'll be paying attention to how Virginia plays against Duke. UVA is favored at home against a Blue Devil team that has many similarities to ours.

I hope to see…

The defensive line dominate. I know these guys are all dinged up, but no one has really stepped up of late. If we are to make a run, this group has got to make some big plays.

BC is in trouble if...

Shinskie doesn't improve his decision making. Last week was bad obviously. In other games some of his more blatant missteps weren't costly. This week, he should play smart football and not force things and check down when needed.

Bottom Line

Central Michigan is a good team but I think there are too many factors pointed towards a BC win this week. This is their third straight road game. We are their third BCS team on their schedule, yet they haven't played a team as talented or fast as BC in six weeks. Our guys have shown the ability to bounce back from tough losses. I think they do it again this week, contain LeFevour and pull away in the second half.
Final Score: BC 35, CMU 17


mod34b said...

Much like NCSU before the BC game, CMU has good stats against the run and a good reputation against the run.

Nonetheless, I think Harris is going to have a great day rushing.

Here is CMU D-line: DE Zombo 6-4 260; DT Murnane 6-1 258; DT Williams 6-0 270; DE Fraser 6-3 215; avg 250 pounds!

BC O-Line average 305 pounds!

(compare ND: avg 285; NCSU avg 274)

We average 55 lbs on these guys. I think that kind of heft advantage will lead to a great running day; which will lead to easier passing from Shinskie.

I am hoping for another NCSU!

mod34b said...

CMU is hyping the fact that if they beat BC, they very likely will be ranked in the Top 25 for the first time ever.

So they are very motivated!

CT said...

I wonder what Kent State's defensive line averaged.

mod34b said...

Kent State ---

DE 97 Zach Williams, 6-3, 255, Jr.

NT 74 Sam Frist 6-4, 291, Sr.

DT 67 Aaron Hull, 6-0, 291, Sr.

I think our O-Line is also much improved from some kind of early season confusion in the Tuggle era(e.g., Clemson game and we were not too swift against Kent State either, as I recall)

Erik said...

I think the boys rally again, win 38-16

mmason said...

If we bring out the old cushion defense will CM's Star QB tear us up with 8 yard passes and run on us,too?
Not a happy prospect, is it?

mod34b said...

UNC looking pretty good against VTech...we better watch out..

Erik said...

Mingya... Can we even call it "BC" vs CMU this weekend?

Haden - Transfer
Finch - Mono
McLaughlin - doubtful
Lapham - doubtful
Albright - Questionable
Ramsey - Questionable

There goes our plan for putting pressure on LeFevour.
I'd mark down Giles for one late hit, one taunting penalty, and one roughing the passer tomorrow.

mod10aeagle said...

The Globe said Finch would be out for a month. Who was #4 on the tailback depth chart?

UNC's linebackers, particularly Carter, looked like monsters last night. On the other hand, Tyrod Taylor was channeling Dominique Davis.

Big Jack Krack said...

Sterlin Phifer from Va Beach - don't know if they have burned his red-shirt yet. Looks like he'll be stepping in now for sure.

This is our 9th game in a row without a break - it's no wonder we're hurting.

We'll have to score, score, score tomorrow!!!!! Go BC - beat CMU.

I'm flying up for the UNC game - we seek REVENGE for last year's bomb in Chapel Hill. I'm not looking ahead - let's take care of business tomorrow!

AlbanyEagle said...

Lots of unsold tickets for the game.
"Buy one , get one free" promotion.
Another attendance horror show (appropriately enough).

Big Jack Krack said...

I wonder how Gene likes being the equal of Duke and Wake Forest in terms of game attendance?

Having said that, I think there were less than 25,000 fans at the game in Mount Pleasant in 2006 (Capacity 30,000).

Fans are staying in front of big,wide-screen tv's for a better experience than fighting State Police on their own campus.

Pete said...

they are giving 4 free tickets to any BC faculy/staff that want it. attendance is going to be bad, real bad.

BCMike said...

BC has covered every home game and 6/8 games this year.

Not bad...

Probably one of the reasons why it went from BC-3.5 to BC-6.