I asked Bruce Feldman about BC's chances in his chat on Friday. He still thinks we are second tier.
The news that Miami and Notre Dame are renewing their series is bad for BC. It is one less open date for the Irish and another ACC team on their schedule. However, if Notre Dame stays independent, our chances of getting them back on the schedule improve. As an indy they won't be able to play any Big Ten or SEC teams late in the year. The ACC and BC would accommodate them and give them much needed October and November dates.
This has been around a bit, but I thought some might find the analysis interesting. I always put a lot of weight into returning starters, but this study shows it is not a significant factor.
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You're right, that mathematical analysis is interesting, even if it's very short on depth, i.e. they're only looking at two seasons. But it also strikes me as too Bill James-ian...falling in love with numbers instead of eyes. I doubt Nick Saban knows any of that stuff.
There are some very obvious deficiencies in their nerdy lives.
Still, a great find.
Feldman putting BC in the 2nd tier is sorta like saying the sun will rise in the east tomorrow. I'd agree that UNC, with that defense, VT, until proven otherwise, and Miami appear to be frontrunners now...but FSU's defense, and GT's losses on defense and its switch to the 3-4 make me believe that BC is in no worse shape. Even with Shinskie throwing sliders to our WRs.
Wow...Bruce Feldmen sounds just like every other CF pundit year in/ year out.
Meat Market was awful btw. I like that Michael Lewis doesn't even write about College Football and he can fart out a better CF book than ESPN's "top" analyst.
Heres a nice piece on Craig Smith
http://clipperblog.com/2010/05/15/appreciating-craig-smith/
For some reason I'm betting that it's the quality of returning started, not the quantity of them. Duke often has a lot of returning starters and they are no better than the previous year because the same guys didn't get better. Experience helps, but talent helps more. I'd rather have a great team last year and have that year's second team this year, than have a crappy team last year and get all of them back.
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