I asked Bruce Feldman about BC's chances in his chat on Friday. He still thinks we are second tier.
The news that Miami and Notre Dame are renewing their series is bad for BC. It is one less open date for the Irish and another ACC team on their schedule. However, if Notre Dame stays independent, our chances of getting them back on the schedule improve. As an indy they won't be able to play any Big Ten or SEC teams late in the year. The ACC and BC would accommodate them and give them much needed October and November dates.
This has been around a bit, but I thought some might find the analysis interesting. I always put a lot of weight into returning starters, but this study shows it is not a significant factor.