Thursday, October 14, 2010

BC-Florida State preview

I could roll out a million cliches to capture my mood, but let me just say I am optimistic about Saturday. I even tweeted the thought Wednesday. I have a hard time rationalizing it. I hate intangibles, but I just feel like we are due for a break. Due for a breakout performance or two. Due for things to go our way. Maybe I am hoping too much. Maybe I am seeing things that aren't there. Maybe I want to enjoy the rest of the season. I don't know. I know we still have many problems but I just feel like things will go our way this Saturday.


Overlooked storyline for the game: Spaz and McGovern's familiarity with FSU's offensive line play
FSU's offensive line scheme, style and techniques are very similar to what BC ran under Jags. In fact, during exile last year, Jags spent some time in Tallahassee working with their offensive staff on the zone blocking. Since Spaz and his defensive staff went up against it so often scouting it and knowing how to attack it should be easy. Our defensive line play has been decent and knowing what they know, I think we can exploit some weaknesses in FSU's scheme and then slow down their offense.


Three Simple Key
1. Use the Tight Ends in passing. One area where we don't have a talent gap is Tight End. Against FSU's zone packages Pantale and Anderson should be able to find some open spots over the middle.
2. Drop the LBs deeper into coverage. The LB play was a bit haphazard last week. We were blitzing so often and so keyed on stopping the run that both Kuechly and KPL got caught flatfooted in the pass game. I think they need to be more patient this week and force Ponder to throw into seven men.
3. Sticking with the run game
I hope that even if we are down we stick with the run game until late in the game. I think we need to slow the tempo of the game. Give our D a rest and put as little of this on Rettig as possible. I also feel like patience with the rushing attack will pay off for the offensive line and Montel.


Gambling Notes

-- BC is 0-5 against the spread this year.
-- BC has never lost four straight games by 17 points or more
-- BC has only started 0-3 in conference play once
The current line is BC+21.5.



Factoid

Florida State has not lost three straight games in Tallahassee to an ACC opponent.


Scoreboard Watching

Keep an eye on Clemson-Maryland and Wake Forest-Virginia Tech. Like us, Wake and Clemson are ACC team's struggling to get back on track. We might learn a thing or two by how they respond to adversity.


I hope to see…

A close game. Yes, it has become that bad. As I told my wife the other day, "this is the least stressful BC season ever." We are never in games so my usual pacing, cursing, and twitching doesn't even start. The games are brutal to watch. I would hate to lose, but I would love to have us be in a game in the final minute.


BC is in trouble if…

Florida State gets up early. I am not questioning the guys' hearts. I just think losing is tough and they are not getting much guidance or hope. If we are down big early, I think we are in for another long, painful afternoon.


Bottom Line

We already know I am crazy, but picking BC this weekend should be enough proof to put me away. I know we are better than our record and better than we've played. We can do this. Rettig doesn't need to be a superstar. He just needs to make a play or two. I think the defense makes it happen this weekend and Harris makes a few big plays. We win and people finally start smiling about BC football again.
Final Score: BC 28, Florida State 23

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23 Comments:

At 2:52 PM, Blogger CT said...

Wow

 
At 3:01 PM, Blogger Greg said...

Pretty much sums up my thoughts, CT...

But I love the optimism!

 
At 3:08 PM, Blogger JC said...

I am optimistic but I am also a realist. As much as I would love to pick BC, my brain tells me that it could get ugly.

FSU 31 BC 10

 
At 3:21 PM, Blogger Emil said...

With Rettig in I'll go FSU 24 BC 14

 
At 3:43 PM, Blogger Robert said...

Love the optimism...too many downers lately

 
At 3:46 PM, Blogger mod34b said...

Good sign ATL -- the blowhard Herbstreit luvs FSU:

"Florida State is maybe the best team I have seen this year. That includes Alabama and Ohio State and everybody else. Just that night, the way they played [Miami]. That was just a breath of fresh air and I can't wait to watch them play. I don't even care who Florida State plays, I just want to watch them play again. ... And the way they're recruiting and with Florida being down, Florida State right now has the chance to be the team again in the state of Florida."

I am with you ATL -- Let's hold on for a WTF win. If you are hoping for your own team to be blown out, what's the point of being fan (you gotta have some hope), other than the perverse joy of later crowing an "I told you so" and the possibility of further confirmation of you self-styled status as a rigorous "realist" (read ecstatic pessimist)

 
At 4:30 PM, Blogger Bravesbill said...

If you're an optimist, you will be disappointed and angry when BC loses. If you're a pessimist, you will be indifferent because you predicted it would happen. If BC wins, the optimist will be happy while the pessimist will be elated at the surprise. Pessimist = all the benefits with no downside.

 
At 4:57 PM, Blogger BCMike said...

The one stat I hate is BC in their last nine (I think it's nine now?) games, the Eagles are 0-9-0 against the spread.

Line is FSU -21.5.

Could get ugly, but like Bill--I'm holding out hope.

 
At 5:19 PM, Blogger A33Jim said...

Bravesbill,

Optimists live longer

 
At 6:12 PM, Blogger Eagle 1 said...

"Final Score: BC 28, Florida State 23"

Stop it, William. It's hard to take you seriously when you say things like this. Unfortunately, this is likely to be an ass pounding of epic proportions, and I can't believe that Vegas is even offering bets on this one. Take the over for BIG money. FSU 63, BC 10. I love my Eagles, but they are FUBAR this year. Is there a mercy rule in college football? We may need it.

 
At 6:24 PM, Blogger Doornekamp! said...

FSU 37, BC 8.

 
At 8:27 PM, Blogger blist said...

I'm inspired by Bill's confidence. Our defense plays great and Rettig does enough to get Harris some running room. Freese is on the mark all day. Slow and steady overcomes a couple of FSU flashes
BC 16 FSU 14

 
At 8:46 PM, Blogger eagleboston said...

I predicted losses to Va Tech and Notre Dame because we played both teams with their backs against the wall. I fear a blowout but BC is a proud team used to winning and now they are the ones with their backs against the wall. Perhaps they will fight like cornered dogs and get the upset.

 
At 9:04 PM, Blogger Claver2010 said...

Honestly if this gets to a 3-4 TD spread, I'll be turning it off.

I haven't missed a snap all year but I've never seen a team drop off like this considering the talent lost.

And I will send GDF an email on Monday just as I have the past 2.

 
At 9:39 PM, Blogger EL MIZ said...

My optimistic scenario is a 31-21 loss. Rettig looks good but we lack the playmakers and coaching to keep up with them.

My pessimistic scenario is a 56-13 drubbing. Spaz punts at least once in the 4th quarter when in their territory, damning this season in the eyes of the Football Gods.

 
At 10:26 PM, Blogger Galvin said...

If we can just survive the 1st quarter, I think it will give us the confidence to make it a competitive, nail-biting game (that all BC fans know and love/hate). The last 2 losses we just got into a hole so early, it sucked all the wind out of us. Let's hope Chase doesn't turn the ball over and keeps his nerves down. GO BC!!

 
At 10:42 PM, Blogger CT said...

It has nothing to do with optimism vs. pessimism. This team has shown nothing to be encouraged about and the only reason everyone is clinging to the hope that Rettig is the savior is because Shinskie and Marsco have been that bad. We haven't seen very much from Rettig at all. Yet it seems like we're all so desperate for a bit of success that we're reaching w/o the benefit of much evidence.

If he stinks, that's what freshman do and no one would call him out on that.

I appreciate the optimism. Hell, I thought last yr's bball team would be pretty good. But there's been little to convince me that this OLine, this QB, whoever it is, this WR corps, is anything but poor.

Hope we beat 'em 45-0.

 
At 6:55 AM, Blogger Michael said...

I'm forever telling my 7 year old son that "I don't know who's going to win" and "you have to watch the game, anything can happen", and "the game is never pre-determined".

I can't say that this week or with this team until they show me otherwise.

Our best bet is that FSU plays down to the level of BC, which is quite possible. It happens all the time. If so, the just maybe we have a shot at losing close.

If you can't score, you can't win. I think we have 2 TD's in the last 3 games. That's not going to get it done.

Go BC!

 
At 8:31 AM, Blogger BCDoubleEagle said...

THIS DATE IN BC HISTORY:
Oct. 15, 2005
Trailing 30-21 with 3:29 left, backup QB Matt Ryan drives BC down the field in less than a minute to hit Tony Gonzalez with a 38-yard TD. Moments later, Ryan leads BC downfield again, this time hitting Kevin Challenger with a 26-yard strike to give the Eagles a thrilling 35-30 win.

 
At 8:43 AM, Blogger Erik said...

I really think FSU should show their respects for the Seminole tribe by wearing black uniforms tomorrow.

 
At 9:32 AM, Blogger Alex L. said...

I gotta agree with CT's last post. I admit it's easy for some of us to be pessimistic at this point, but it's more than that.

It's not like we've lost some close games where we've had some bad breaks. Our coaching staff is clearly displaying the fact that it has been significantly outclassed in the past few games. Even when you have a hyper-talented team, this will take its toll. But when you have a semi-talented team like ours, it's a death sentence.

Don't get me wrong. I want this team to win tomorrow. But let's assume we do. Let's also assume that FSU has more talent overall than we do. How do you explain the win in light of the last 3 losses? It would end up being some kind of reverse-WTF game. We lose to Va Tech, ND and NCST, but beat FSU? I mean, Spaz, that's great and all. Way to pull out of the tailspin. But for Chrissakes, couldn't you have done it a little sooner against easier opponents?

Unfortunately, that's the best case scenario for tomorrow. We win, and then we have to spend the next week wondering why the hell we didn't win any of the previous three games.

Of course if we lose, well, I will enjoy the ensuing but pointless "Fire Spaz and/or Gene" commentary. Bill may need to shift the focus of the blog to bball or hockey for the rest of the season.

 
At 10:42 AM, Blogger Eddierock said...

To be a fan is to be an optimist. If: 1) we can survive the first 10 minutes of each half and 2) the O line comes out mean and nasty--which it hasn't all season but is due, than they can create room for Montel, take the pressue off Retig--who only needs to be good, not great, and put us in a position to win. Call me crazy...

 
At 10:40 AM, Blogger Mike said...

If this game had come right after Oklahoma or right before Miami, I might be concerned about BC pulling off the upset, but not today. This is going to be the first sellout of the season for FSU, the Doak is going to be rocking and the fans are still geeked after dismantling Miami.

Also, see the BYU-FSU and Wake-FSU games for an example of how freshman QBs have done this season on the road against FSU...

 

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