Thursday, November 04, 2010

BC-Wake Forest Preview

For such a bland location and Stadium environment, Winston-Salem has been host to some very interesting BC-Wake Forest games. In 2004 (preACC) Wake handed us our first loss of the season with a late TD. In 2006 Matt Ryan threw 57 times in a game we really dominated but still ended up losing. Then in 2008 Chris Crane broke his collar bone and we nearly wasted one of the best defensive efforts of Herzy's career. But amazingly Dominique Davis connected with Brandon Robinson late in the game for us to steal the win. Neither team is as good as their respective predecessors from this series, but it should still make for a competitive game.

Overlooked storyline for the game:
Although this isn't a must win for bowl eligibility, Spaz does need to win this (and the remaining ACC games) to avoid our worst conference winning percentage performance since 1996. That year, Dan Henning only won two ACC games.

Three Simple Keys

1. Avoid turnovers. In general I agree with the football sabremetrics crowd that turnovers are not a big stat. But I do think that against a team like Wake -- which hasn't been very opportunistic via turnovers -- protecting the ball becomes more important. We don't want to give them hope nor good field position.
2. Fewer slants more Go routes.
The timing is obviously off on Rettig's slants so why not be a little more aggressive with the deep routes? Wake will probably try to bring the safeties up to stop Montel. A few deep balls could be winnable battles for Momah or Lee.
3. Keep contain.
Grobe used to kill Spaz's defenses with misdirection. We let a reverse give FSU the lead. I expect Grobe to challenge our patience again and try to get a big play. Everyone has to hold their positions and keep the big plays from happening.

Gambling Notes

-- BC has gone 0-9 against the spread in our last nine road games.
-- Spaz is 2-5 on the road.
-- Grobe is 27-24 coming off a loss at Wake Forest.
The current line is BC-3


The last Wake Forest coach to lose six games in a row was current Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Caldwell.

Scoreboard Watching

We are well beyond the scoreboard watching phase, but do pay attention to Duke vs Virginia. They are our next two opponents and both are showing signs of life after terrible starts.

I hope to see...

Rettig throw it 25 or more times. The space and points are there. We just need to give him more opportunities. I think it will be good for his development and will certainly help our offensive numbers.

BC is in trouble if...

They shut down the run. Everything we do is based off of the run. I predict that Wake will make that their focus (especially with how they were gashed by some other running teams).

Bottom Line

I know I keep saying this, but I do think this is a good matchup for BC. I think their defense is so bad that we will be able to move the ball. I also think we will pray on their green QB and force them into mistakes. The biggest unknown remains our redzone conversions. If we can get TDs instead of FGs it won't be close.
Final Score: BC 28, Wake Forest 13


Ryan said...

Dan Henning won 2 Big East games, a bit before ACC time.

BCDoubleEagle said...

Not to pile on with the typos, but unless we're doing voodoo I doubt we will "pray" on their QB.

Laxman said...

this is shaping up to be a very ugly game to watch..

Dustbowl said...

What's the word for a person who sees an obvios typo and can't resist the urge to correct.

Oh, I remember: d@ck. :~)

eagleboston said...

I want what ATL is smoking. BC has not put up 28 points since the Weber State game. They could not even put up 28 points on a horrible Kent State team. I'm just hoping we win at this point. I'll even be happy with 6-3.

Dan said...

Eagleboston - Seeing as Wake is giving up about 45 points a game to FBS schools, I think 28 points is taking our offensive mediocrity into account. Hell Maryland put 62 on them last week and VT 52 the week before so 28 sounds reasonable for us.

mod34b said...

EagleBoston --

i think you are right...our theoretical ceiling is about 21 points...

However, if Harris and OLine go nuts, I could see NCSU 2009 redux

Dan said...

Plus they give up over 200 yards a game on the ground so I could see Montel scoring 28 on his own.

Erik said...

How will we know how many points they score if it's not on TV? At least the residents of New England are being treated to a UMass/UMaine game.

Eddierock said...

Here is the scenario: O-line manhandles Wake D-line, Rettig gets plenty of time to throw. Nyquil takes a five hour energy drink before the game, Retting settles down and throws for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, montel picks up a couple as well...Our D shuts wake down, they score 7.