Friday, February 04, 2011

Recruiting starting for 2012 and other links

Recruiting never ends. Just look at BC. We are hitting 2012 recruits and will probably get a commitment this spring.


Herzy will be featured in an NFL documentary about the process for rookies? I don't think that the film will help Mark's draft status, but this will certainly help raise his profile further. I think Mark has a real future in front of the camera.


Danny Rubin has cooled off, but he has still been one of the surprises of the season.

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4 Comments:

At 11:01 AM, Blogger ORDEagle said...

Looks like a long form Gatorade commercial to me not a documentary.

 
At 11:12 AM, Blogger mod34b said...

All this recruiting talk made me wonder just how subjective the Rivals team rankings were (and by inference the other recruiting ranking services) .

To put it mildly, the ranking system is a joke. It is no more precise than HD deciding BC had a "B-" recruiting season and VTech had a "C+" season.

The formula (which I will post in the next post) seems quite arbitrarty. A team is ranked by overal points. A team gets points for two things: the number of stars a player has and the national rank of the player.

If you work through the massive equation, the overwhelmingly biggest driver of overall team points (and thus rank) is the number of players you have that are nationally ranked and within the top bracket of postion rankings (e.g top 25 for QBs, top 40 for OL etc) or your player is within the rivals 100.

In a nutshell, the rankings come down to the highly unreliably and subjective impression of the NATIONAL rank for a player. How do they determime how a player from Connecticut compares to a player from Texas? This kind of ranking is very close to guess work in my view.

My point is that once you look at the formula and see how it works, you realize that the annual team rankings are worth very little and are at best a general impression of relative ranks. (e.g., #15 team rank is not really much better than #35)

I think as ATL has mentioned before, it seems that the ranking system is designed so it will turn out that the usually highly ranked teams usually have highly ranked recruiting classes (except Clemson, who never does much with its gaudy recruiting classes). It is really not an accurate assesment of talent, but more of marketing game for all us fans to oogle over and debate.

 
At 11:13 AM, Blogger mod34b said...

Here is the Rivals Ranking formula
-------------------------

only take the top 20 prospects in this formula, ordered by # Stars descending.

POINTS = ((N / (N + 50)) * H) + ((50 / (N + 50)) * L)

where...

H = 250 for each 5-star commit + 140 for each 4-star + 75 for each 3-star + 20 for each 2-star + 10 for each 1-star

L = 18 for each 5-star + 12 for each 4-star + 8 for each 3-star + 3 for each 2-star + 1 for each 1-star

N = a big calculation, described below

CALCULATION OF N:
10 for each commit on the Rivals 100 (high school) ranked 1-10
9 for each commit on the Rivals 100 (high school) ranked 11-20
etc. down to...
1 for each commit on the Rivals 100 (high school) ranked 91-100

10 for each commit on the Rivals 100 (non-high school) ranked 1-10
9 for each commit on the Rivals 100 (non-high school) ranked 11-20
etc. down to...
6 for each commit on the Rivals 100 (non-high school) ranked 41-50

24 for each commit ranked #1 on his official position ranking
18 for each commit ranked #2-5 on his official position ranking
8 for each commit ranked 6-X on his official position ranking, where X is dependent on detail position, as listed below...

--Dual-threat QB: 25
--Pro-style QB: 25
--Running Back: 35
--All-Purpose Back: 15
--Fullback: 15
--Wide Receiver: 50
--Tight End: 20
--Offensive Tackle: 40
--Offensive Guard: 30
--Offensive Center: 10
--Defensive Tackle: 50
--Weakside Defensive End: 20
--Strongside Defensive End: 30
--Inside Linebacker: 35
--Outside Linebacker: 35
--Cornerback: 40
--Safety: 30
--Athlete: 25
--Kicker: (no points awarded for rank lower than 5th)

If the team's average stars are greater than 3, add (100 * (Avg stars -
> 3)) to N.

 
At 12:21 PM, Blogger mod34b said...

following up , Per SI's (Ivan meisel the rankings are a farce.

"To call recruiting an inexact science is an insult to science, not to mention inexactitude. Here's what I'm talking about: take the 2006 list of players in the ESPNU 150 and cross-reference it with the 2010 NFL draft. You will find 20 names. Run through the 2009 draft and you'll find nine more players who came out as juniors.

In fact, more players from the 2006 ESPNU 150 have transferred, been dismissed or failed to make their grades (36) than have been drafted in 2009 and 2010 (29). "

 

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