Monday, December 05, 2011

Statistical Snapshot of the Basketball team

We are not a good basketball team right now. But because we've struggled through the easier part of our schedule it is going to be tough to measure progress in terms of wins and losses. If we only get one win in ACC play does that mean we didn't get better? I think to measure success, we should measure our statistics and efficiency. Right now Donahue has no set rotation. He is giving his minutes to everyone and looking for anyone to step up. Six weeks from now I believe we will have a more consistent rotation, a more consistent use of minutes and guys who better understand our offense and defense.


To get a benchmark of where we are, I decided to use Kenpom's high level ratings. I did this because he measures efficiency not necessarily just points and averages.

Currently we are 254th in adjusted offense and 296th in adjusted defense.


I don't know how much that defense number will change but I think the offense will get much, much better. If it doesn't and our record is terrible, then we will have to start asking tough questions about this group of freshman. Until then though, let's do our best to measure the baby steps.

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36 Comments:

At 1:06 AM, Blogger chicagofire1871 said...

I would love to hear GDF tell us that we can't be Alabama on Saturdays and Harvard Mon-Fri. 'Cause the way things sit, our basketball team is awful, our football team is awful and Alabama is playing for a national championship and Harvard is ranked #25 in the latest AP poll.

Thanks Gene.

 
At 8:58 AM, Blogger Joseph said...

What would you have done differently about the BB team? I agree about Spaz and FB. Also, Gene should go.

 
At 9:27 AM, Blogger Bravesbill said...

Look, getting rid of Skinner was absolutely the right thing to do. Even if BC takes gigantic steps backwards, it will still be better in the long run. It's quite telling that no other basketball program in the country has offerred Skinner a job since he's been fired.

"Skinner continued the interview by noting that he felt had he been at BC during the 2010-11 season, the Eagles would have been more of a factor in the national picture. 'I know the potential we had," he said. “We would have had a dog in this fight, and that we don’t bothers me."'"

That pretty much says it all. The guy is delusional.

 
At 9:41 AM, Blogger Big Jack Krack said...

I can't imagine how Gene let Al Skinner get away with recruiting no players in 2009.

Skinner then added three in the November Signing Period -
Heslip, Noreen, and Samba-Ndao who would join Eagles for 20010-11 season.

For whatever reason, once Skinner was given the pink slip, those three never advanced to the roster or team.

I don't know why they left, but if I was Donahue, I could have used 6'10" Noreen and 6'9" Samba-Ndao somehow. Heslip probably would have helped as well. Coach D must have considered the possibility of literally having no players, which is what happened and the reason we are where we are.

Coach D has chosen to go this way, but it may be a process that takes 3 or 4 years before we see meaningful progress.

Didn't Gene give Skinner an extension before he gave him the pink slip?

Another great job, Gene - what a guy.

 
At 9:46 AM, Blogger Big Jack Krack said...

BTW - does anyone know why Inglese abruptly resigned as Womens BBall HC in April 2008?

I assumed that she probably had enough of Gene's meddling, but I don't know.

I am studying Gene's performance as Athletic Director.

 
At 9:54 AM, Blogger Joseph said...

Great question. It has been asked before but never answered. Closest has been veiled references to Gene's incompetence, but nothing very specific. Where is she now?

 
At 10:22 AM, Blogger Tim said...

Inglese is the head coach at URI:
http://www.gorhody.com/sports/w-baskbl/mtt/inglese_cathy00.html

I've never heard a reason for her resignation from BC.

 
At 10:41 AM, Blogger Rob said...

Honestly, you're expecting way to much ATL. The defensive competition is about to go up significantly in the ACC schedule as these guys start facing ACC level athletes. If this number stays even, we should be pretty happy.

None of these guys are physically ready for ACC play. A summer of training and gym work will help, but I think we have a long road ahead and will start to see real improvement their junior year once they have a year under their belt with real point guards like Hanlan.

 
At 11:02 AM, Blogger @timstwrt said...

It's not delusional for Skinner to think that he could have had a better team last year. Sanders staying, Heslip getting the minutes that went to Cahill, Noreen and Samba-Ndao doing....something, maybe. All of that adds up to a at least a couple more wins and a tournament berth. It would seem delusional, to borrow a word, to think otherwise.

 
At 11:26 AM, Blogger Rob said...

Agreed with Tim, we would have had all the same guys as Donahue, plus Ravanel, Sanders, and three freshman. Even in Donahue's offense, Heslip would have been a great fit with his 3pt shooting (I know he had a good start at Baylor). Skinner isn't being ridiculous, the guy was a great coach and given that Cassera landed a top job at Hofstra, had some reasonable coaches as well.

I'm happy with the change, but Skinner was a good coach and we would have had a good 2010 year with him or Donahue.

 
At 11:49 AM, Blogger NEDofSavinHill said...

Someone should explore the unusual, odd and strange relationship between BC and Syracuse. 1. The best move Fr. Leahy made on behalf of BC sports was the firing of the corrupt, incompetent b-ball coach Jim Obrien. JOB had compiled a 51% winning rate, broke confidences with Leahy and Gladchuk and was later fired at OSU for paying recruits. After his dismissal BC was denounced by Syracuse coach Boeheim. 2. JOB was popular with the other Big East coaches.J OB had a career record of Zero for 20 against Calhoun at UConn. This record matches Gdf's ZERO for 20 record: in 20 years as an AD, he's hired ZERO good coaches(JOB and Gdf have compiled historically bad numbers; their long-term ineptitude is unrivalled) 3. Boeheim not only denounced BC for discharging JOB but decried their leaving for the ACC. A year after BC left, he appeared on a national tv program to again denounce BC. The villification campaign waged against BC was designed to intimidate, bully and coerce BC into doing what Syracuse and ESPN wanted done: BC to stay in the Big East or return to the Big East. This same tactic of defamation, bullying and intimidation once again was employed by Boeheim against Bernie Fine's victims. He has used this method on many occassions. Boeheim's claims of innocence are bogus. Mrs. Fine's tape corroborating the claims was in the hands of Espn and a Syracuse Newspaper for a decade If Espn and the newspaper knew, it's inconceivable that Boeheim knew nothing. 4.The last 2 years BC was in the Big East, they were treated rudely and boorishly. (Ask TOB, Skinner and Cronan how Syracuse recieved them!) With this backdrop of relentless hostility why would the BC AD want to establish that school as BC's rival. Syracuse would seem to be the most unlikely candidate for a rival. GDF said, "Espn told us what to do" in admitting Syracuse to the ACC. Did ESPN tell him to make Syracuse BC's rival? Where does Gdf's loyalty lie? Is he paid by BC or Espn? Whose interests is he promoting? Swafford, GDF and Coach K should all be investigated to see where their loyalties lie: with ESPN, TV, themselves or with the Institutions they are supposed to represent.Were they acting in the best interest of their institutions or others'? 5. Two months ago, in the BC Athletic Department's Annual Report, Gdf said in response to a direct question that he had little involvement with Spaz; he said he only talked with Spaz once a week, when they walked around the Chestnut Hill Reservoir on Thursdays. Lately he's been quoted as saying that he talks with Spaz "every day", that he's in contact with him, "24/7". It can't be both. Just like "Espn told us what to do" and 2 days later "I spoke erroneously", it can't be both. Add in, "Spaz is the best coach I've had in 15 years", and it can only be concluded that you cannot believe anything GDF says on any subject. The inevitable conclusion is that GDF is not acting solely in BC's interests.

 
At 12:00 PM, Blogger NEDofSavinHill said...

Before Gdf started making decisions (TOB and Skinner) BC was the 6th best program, combined football and basketball in the USA. BC was the best combined program in the ACC (see Espn report using the Sagarin computer)Now BC is the worst combined in the ACC. Madoff couldn't be worse.

 
At 12:25 PM, Blogger Pearl Washington said...

So we are going to rely on Hanlan (offered by Dayton, Rice, TCU) and and Rahon (San Diego, SDSU, LMU, St Mary's) , 2 freshman point guards who were not recruited by any successful BCS schools to save the basketball program.

We have a coach who lost for 7 years in the Ivy League. Got an NBA player's kid and a 7 foot transfer who was 21 years old and he had a 3 year run.

So he didn't recruit well there, didn't developed any players and Gene Springfield College Phys Ed Major hired him instead of Cooley or Coen because he wanted to make his stamp.

He alienated all of Skinner's players and recruits. Gave 9 schollies away (his quote - "Never had schollies it is like Candy." I guess he likes the crappy Brach's Butterscotch Candy because his eye for talent is horrible)and every single one of them is timid or unqualified>

The next 2 years minimally at Conte is going to be baren so recruiting will be harder. We will get no TV on the real ESPN and Pitt and Syracuse are coming. We have 2 scholarships left.

So my question is this? Why didn't Gene ask him why it took him 7 years? Why didn't Gene ask him why he never developed any players? Why didn't Gene require he get an experience Real Division 1 assistant like Gene Keady (like Lavin did) to help him in the process? Why didn't he hire recruiters from real Division 1 programs?

Donahue is incompetent to coach at this level. Way over his head. Would you hire a COO who had a track level like Donahue to run your company?

And this can be blamed on the Gene and Gene only. Here is his pattern. I get to hire 3 coaches. I hired Jags, Spaz Donahue.

Nice job. Get Trump in there to fire him .

 
At 12:37 PM, Blogger Jimmy said...

NED -- Good point contrasting GDF's present 24/7 claim with what was said in the Annual report:

Q. You started out as a football coach and
there’s an impression among some BC fans that you must be very involved with the football program. How involved are you?


A. Not nearly as much as one might imagine.

Spaz and I talk about everything, but Spaz makes the decisions on who we recruit, who plays, his staff, who’s going to be redshirted, etc. In the last coaching staff search, Spaz made a phenomenal hire in Kevin Rogers. I think Spaz interviewed seven or eight men for that position. I did not interview any of them, and I never spoke to Kevin Rogers prior to his arrival here on campus.

I sometimes receive too much credit when things go well or too much blame when they go badly, but ... that credit goes to our coaches and to our student-athletes, because they’re the ones who do it.

…..

During football season, Spaz and I walktogether every Thursday, and he updates me on who’s injured, and who’s healthy, and that’s our 45 minutes of peace and quiet, our time together to talk about football and other things.

During the season, he’s running a hundred miles an hour in one direction and I’m running a hundred miles an hour in another direction. We might talk for a few minutes on the phone here and there, but we rarely talk about the upcoming game until Thursday

 
At 1:00 PM, Blogger I'm copping two... said...

This is how I responded to my latest BC solicitation for donations:

Unfortunately, I cannot willingly give any more money back to BC until Gene deFillipo and/or Frank Spaziani are fired. Thanks and Happy Holidays.

 
At 1:19 PM, Blogger Bravesbill said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 1:20 PM, Blogger Bravesbill said...

@tim--I read his comments to mean that he would have had better success with the same players Donahue had. This claim would be preposterous. Based on your interpretation, of course you would be correct with your claim. The bottom line is that BC is much better off without Skinner in the picture. Skinner has a TOB retread and had no business coaching after his wonderful 2009 class.

Pearl--SDSU may not be a BCS school but it has one hell of a basketball program. Just look at their success this season after having 4 starters (including Leonard) leave. The SDSU Rahon is a good shooter and contributor. If BC's Rahon is anything like his brother, he will be pretty good.

 
At 1:31 PM, Blogger harrow said...

It doesn't matter how good donahue is as a coach. You can be the best jockey in the world, but you need decent horses. Donahue can't recruit in the access. Look what we have thus year and next year. Ivy and mid major guys. Unless he gets better players bc bball is over, I don't understand how nobody sees this. I think you will all wake up once acc play begins. Coach k couldn't win with these guys. 60% of the equation is recruiting. The talent dropoff between skinner recruits and donahue recruits is stunning. Take off the blinders.

 
At 1:52 PM, Blogger Joseph said...

Drop off? Not d1 level? How can you judge them when they are all playing with people as inexperienced as they are. This anti-Donahue stuff is really weird. He has not even had any chance to prove anything yet, good or bad.

 
At 1:58 PM, Blogger harrow said...

Ravanel played some nice minutes for osu against duke. Heslip is the point at baylor. Some of our guys who start would be walking on at best at those schools. We are the 4th best team in Boston, lol.

 
At 2:12 PM, Blogger harrow said...

When has bball been about developing players. This is not football. 75% of these recruits have no business being in the acc. Are you blind? Can these guys win when they are seniors, sure. It's not about waiting 4 years in bball though. When they are gone will we have anyone? Donahue is a good guy and coach, I just don't think he will get the players to win in the acc. He had one run at Cornell, look at all the other years. The administration was sick of skinner bringing guys who were committing crimes and getting bad press. Thus we have donahue. It's interesting he had no other job offers other than us after the sweet 16. If we can't get access caliber recruits we can't win. Look at the offers this current team had, one or two guys had decent offers. The rest ivy and mid majors. Maybe when we lose by 50 to Carolina, a team we recently beat, people will realize. You can be a bc fan and criticize what is happening, you don't have to follow blindly. This team couldn't beat a top 5 ranked in country hs team. If you can't see this you are blind.

 
At 2:18 PM, Blogger mod34b said...

Donahue needs a chance, but, to me, the recruits seem very weak. Does anyone think the recruits are ACC level guys (at this point) given that no other ACC team recruited any one them (is that right?)

But is that weakness a result of years of decline/mismanagement of BC hoops? is that what happens when the last guy does not recruit? And how did GDF miss the ships sailing past each year?

Also curious that Heslip bailed. I had the impression that Donahue did not want him (not quick enough, someone said), and now, shockingly, Heslip is the starting guard on a serious team!

As to Noreen and Papa Ndao (sp??) it is perfectly understandable that each unsigned recruit would be reluctant to join a team without a foundation.

NO ACC WINS seems probable at this point.

 
At 2:26 PM, Blogger Pearl Washington said...

Here is why the anti-Donahue stuff exists:

Other freshman are playing all over this country without fear. Our guys are scared s-less and not only look overwhelmed but are inferior physically and mentally.

For godsakes Kentucky had 4 freshman play 30 minutes against UNC committed only 4 turnovers and got into the offense easily. That is not about being physically gifted it is about court sense and knowing how to play. These guys look like a bunch of 5th graders playing for the first time. This is the anti-Donahue stuff. Then add in he has never been a successful recruiter anywhere or developed any players

What is so hard to see or not see?

Rahon is a 2 guard. Not a point guard he will never get loose without a creator.

Dark days ahead. Fire Gene give Captain Butterscotch one more year and then rebuild the rebuild. Get rid of Moton, Odio, Rubin, Daniels and free up 4 schollies

 
At 2:27 PM, Blogger harrow said...

Mod, you are the only one who sees the truth. I hope I am wrong, but I don't think that will be the case. These are not acc players, one or two will do ok, the rest have little chance. The guys next year are nothing special either.

 
At 2:29 PM, Blogger harrow said...

Thank you pearl. You sum it all up perfectly.

 
At 2:52 PM, Blogger EL MIZ said...

some of this stuff is comical.

A) kentucky has 4 freshman -- all of whom will be gone at season's end, into the NBA. kentucky gets a handful of the best high school players every year. tyreke evans, john wall, derrick rose -- coach cal has had 2 #1 picks and a bunch of lottery guys in the last 5 years. BC has NEVER had (and likely never will) players of that caliber. comparing the 2 is ridiculous.
B) since when is "he was recruited by this other team" a good indicator of how good a guy is? ever? BC got craig smith, jared dudley, sean williams, and other players that were the foundation of the team in the 00s because they weren't recruited by anyone else. thats what skinner was so good at; finding guys that nobody else wanted and putting a good team together. football is the same thing -- we got kuechly because ohio state DIDN"T want him, and we got montel because florida state DIDNT want him. by the logic of pearl and others, those guys should stink because those mighty schools did not offer a schollie. well, they have been the 2 best BC football players of the last decade, arguably. (and hallinan turned down offers from ND and va tech; so he was recruited by both BE and ACC schools, not that it matters)
C) donahue's early record at cornell -- LOL, he should have really turned things around fast, right? since it is so easy to get good high school basketball players to commit to play in ithaca NY; oh and you have no scholarships. oh and two teams have absolutely dominated your conference for decades (penn and princeton). i'm not wiling to give him 7 years to get the program going but to imply that he should've or could've had success at cornell is ridiculous.

i liked ed cooley too and would've been happy with him here, instead we got donahue. i'm not ready to write him off because a team of 7 freshman, a transfer, and a walkon are struggling.

did anyone miss donahue's first season, when he took skinner's team (minus rakim) and won 21 games (and got screwed out of the NCAAs)? or did you guys miss that?

heslip starts on baylor. the other guys are bench players, ravenel for a good squad at ohio state. oh how things would be different! maybe we would be good enough to finish 3rd in the ACC and flame out in round 1 of the NCAAs!

i like what i see from heckmann; he looks like he is ACC caliber. we have 2 7-footers, both of whom are coordinated and can catch, which is saying a lot with a 7 footer. i have high hopes for both of them. we also got mr. CA in basketball (anderson), although it appears that he's playing timid and will need time in the weight room. regardless, there is some talent there. i am more than willing to give donahue the benefit of the doubt and watch to see if this squad develops. not to mention we have a coach that engages with the student body, tries to get kids to come to games, and seems to like coaching at BC.

 
At 3:03 PM, Blogger Legal Eagle said...

Wholeheartedly agree with El Miz. There is talent on this squad. Right now, they look horrible because there is no one to carry the load and they have never played together. If any of these guys was being asked to get some minutes on an established team like we had 5 or 6 years ago they would look very different.
This year will be ugly, there is no doubt about that. But give them a little time to gel and gain confidence and I think we will all be pleasantly surprised by what this group can accomplish.

 
At 3:07 PM, Blogger Joseph said...

What is this stuff about can't recruit? Is recruiting at Cornell anything remotely like in the ACC? What has he had to sell at BC so far? He had nothing so started from a very, very low level. Kentucky has not had the rock bottom level that BC has had in the past two years so selling the program has been a lot easier. So you think that every kid who plays for an ACC team never was developed. You must be naive, blind or kidding. You seriously think that they arrive as good as they will get and that coaching doesn't help? Then tell me all about the success at Harvard. Why is it that freshman rarely get as many minutes as upper classmen? Totally illogical. Are you sure that you graduated form BC?

 
At 3:10 PM, Blogger Big Jack Krack said...

Shouldn't be too difficult to improve upon these numbers.

"Currently we are 254th in adjusted offense and 296th in adjusted defense."

 
At 3:40 PM, Blogger EL MIZ said...

harvard starts 3 juniors and 2 seniors. they bring 3 freshmen off the bench. that seems like the donahue plan to me -- build up a core of guys so that you can start seniors and juniors, and work in a few freshmen every year off the bench. for programs like BC where you are not getting 1-and-done players year-in, year-out; that is the way to go. unfortunately you get kicked in the stomach the year that you have to go with 7 freshman, and the 1 upper classmen is a transfer who has never played in this system, or in this conference, and who isn't great to begin with.

kentucky routinely sells 25,000+ tickets for their midnight madness game (glorified exhibition) to start the season. "The NCAA’s recently compiled attendance figures from this past season reveal that in 2010-11, for the 15th time in 16 years, UK’s average crowd of 23,603 led all of Division I men’s basketball." all the entire state of kentucky has is their men's hoops team. BC basketball probably doesn't even slot into the top 10 of interests for greater boston, and we had like 5,000 fans at our season opener.

 
At 3:56 PM, Blogger harrow said...

Amaker is a great recruiter, always had been. Harvard has outrecruited bc the last few years, look it up. Donahue is not in the ivy league anymore. If you think these kids are acc caliber you are nuts. If he keeps recruiting like this, we will not compete. Why people can't understand this I can't fathom. These guys have nothing to develop.

 
At 3:57 PM, Blogger harrow said...

I hate this damn auto fill on a handheld. Sorry for the grammar.

 
At 4:21 PM, Blogger Pearl Washington said...

Time will tell on Donahue but these 2 recruiting classes (sans a real true above 6 foot point guard)are really pitiful.

The next one is 2 guards with only one true point who is surounded by studs at New Hampton. Auguste, Vonleh, Terrell

Crowd support will be awful the next 2 years. No TV.

He better be a good salesman and he has not proven yet that he is because we wouldn't be losing by double digits to mid major and winning games by 3 and 4 points in overtime.

This could go down as one of the worst Div 1 big conference teams ever. That is the reality

 
At 8:33 PM, Blogger BlockParty said...

bottom line-- our defensive prowess and statistics need to improve exponentially. we are pathetic, and we havent seen a talented offensive team yet. it will get old quickly giving up 80-120 points per game with the swiss cheese defense we play.

buy into defense. the rest will come with more practice. defense is effort and can be corrected now.

 
At 9:53 PM, Blogger hsk said...

I don't get it.... the simple fact that we are completely irrelevant on the national scene in all of the major sports, aside from hockey which has its' niche, should be enough to have an AD canned.

 
At 9:21 PM, Blogger Mr. Tambourine MAn said...

Wouldn't have guessed that it would be our offense that regressed, while our defense has markedly improved. The Don took offense before the year when a reporter (I think AroundtheRes) suggested that he was mainly an offensive coach, perhaps he was right, saying that his Cornell teams consistently led the league in D and that last years team just didn't show a commitment to defense.

 

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