Monday, February 20, 2012

We've been doing it all wrong [UPDATED]

[WARNING: Wonky football analysis post] [UPDATED: I had the percentages transposed for BC. Thanks to Mod34b for the heads up.]

Mgoblog has a contributor who does a lot of interesting work on football analysis. His latest post explains how the traditional down and distance philosophy is outdated. Wisconsin -- with their very successful QB and RB combo -- is the test case, but there is a lot that BC could apply. A quick summary is that a passing play from a QB has a better upside than one from an elite RB and that a premier running back is overrated.

Now even without great players like Russell Wilson and Montee Ball, balance on offense is outdated. BC needs to be more aggressive and make our passing game more explosive.

I know Spaz doesn't call the plays, but his selections of Coordinators and his endorsement of their approaches, shows he's more comfortable with a "balanced" attack. I would hope that Doug Martin would open things up, but his one year at New Mexico State was also very run heavy. Below are some reference points. And what does it say about BC, when Wisconsin -- the Big Ten team used as an example an of old school approach on offense -- looks pass happy compared to BC and New Mexico State.

Run/Pass mix
BC 2011 -- 57.42% run, 42.58% pass
BC 2010 -- 56.93% run, 43.07% pass
BC 2009 -- 57.35% run, 42.65% pass
New Mexico State 2011 -- 49.72% run, 50.28% pass
Wisconsin 2011 -- 35.01% run, 64.99% pass

Martin has said the right things about next season. He runs a West Coast, single back offense but is less about scheme and more about taking advantage of the team's best players. I don't know enough about New Mexico State to judge if a heavy dose of run made sense. Let's hope he does want to take advantage of our best players because that would mean plenty of passing from Rettig to Larmond and Pantale.


Big Jack Krack said...

With a healthy Montel Harris - watch out ACC. And he can catch a pass as well - with plenty of what they call YAC!

With Finch, Williams and Kimble, we have some potent options for 2012. Hopefully, we won't have to overuse any running back.

I'm actually getting excited.

I'm also starving for the first news out of "Spring" Football practice.

If Martin can use our inherent strengths by opening up the offense even a little - we will be much better this fall.

Big Jack Krack said...

Pantale was wide open a few times in the Miami game and it was great to see. Let's really build on that last game of the season.

Larmond was (wide) open a couple of times as well, but Rettig couldn't get the ball to him because he was getting pressured and smothered.

I swear, hit the TE over the middle a couple of times - and the RB and even the FB if we use one, coming out of the backfield - and we'll see Larmond, Swigert and Amidon - Evans , Coleman and Elliott, et al getting open much more often - in space even!

With our schedule, more offense and a stouter defense will put fannies in the seats and might add up to 3 or 4 more wins.

Can you imagine what an improvement in the OLine will do for us this year? Go hogs! :-)

I'm rooting for BC and holding the AD and HC responsible.

We have talent and experience.

If the excuse train starts up, I will absolutely hit the roof.

Go BC.

mod34b said...

Yes, BC is way out of step in its offense. We must pass to win. And pass for yards.

As Chad Morris of Clemson knows, a team that runs more plays has a better chance of winning. To run more plays, you must increase your average gain per play. To do that you must pass more.

And a team's defense will do better too the more its offense stays in the field.

Look at these BC offensive stats

1 2007 - 1081 plays (61% pass)
2 2008 - 965 plays (46% pass)
3 2009 - 823 plays (43% pass)
4 2010 - 814 plays (43% pass)
5 2011 - 761 plays (43% pass)

yard per play
1 2007 - 1st in ACC
2 2008 - 8th
3 2009 - 9th
4 2010 - 12th
5 2011 - 12th


1 2007 - 10
2 2008 - 9
3 2009 - 8
4 2010 - 7
5 2011 - 4

who sees a trend?????

mod34b said...

ATL - I think you might have mixed up the run/pass ratios

You have:

Run/Pass mix
BC 2011 -- 42.58% run, 57.42% pass
BC 2010 -- 43.07% run, 56.93% pass
BC 2009 -- 42.65% run, 57.35% pass

should be the other way around.

~ 43% pass; 57% run (quite consistent ratios under Spaz)

Jeff said...

Thanks mod, now that the percentages are fixed it looks a lot better.

Look at how run-heavy we've been! Those New Mexico state figures look like heaven by comparison! Can you imagine having an offense that's actually balanced?! One can only dream...