Wednesday, September 26, 2012

One bad unknown recruit doesn't spoil the whole roster

When BC picked up a commitment from another player off our radar, the Spaz critics came out in force. They fear that by loading up on lower-level talent, Spaz is leaving his replacement with huge roster issues. I don't think it will be a problem. While we will lack some depth and leadership, I think a new coach will look at the inherited roster as a chance to get his own players into his system that much faster. Regardless of how Spaz's final recruiting class comes together, there will be plenty of open scholarships in the next three years.

Here are some things to consider...

1. Spaz's first full class uses up their five years in time for the new coach's first full class. They were originally 21 scholarships. Because some played as true freshman, their churn will be up even faster. But 21 is still a close enough place holder for a baseline for the class. For purposes of this exercise, call the 21 spots Class 1 for the new coach.
2. Spaz's second full class was 23 scholarships. By the same churn rate, every player from this class should open up a recruiting slot in our new coach's second full class. For purposes of this exercise, call the 23 spots Class 2 for the new coach.
3. Spaz has underrecruited each year and backfilled with scholarships to walkons. Fortunately most of those walkons were and are upper classmen. Right now there are four scholarships that fall into this category. Those extra spots will probably be used in this transitional class, but even if they are spread out, that still provide plenty of flexibility for the new coach.
4. A coaching change will mean accelerated attrition. This number is less predictable put on average BC loses five players over the course of a football season to some sort of attrition (permanent injury, transfer out or kicked off of the team). Assuming we get to six annually for the first two years (because of the coaching change), that once again gives the new coach plenty of flexibility to shape his recruiting classes.
5. The NCAA allows for 85 scholarships for football and only 25 at most per recruiting class. 
6. According to the recruiting sites, BC plans on keeping this Transitional Class small and will only add a few more players. For purposes of this exercise, estimate it at 21 commitments.

Transitional Class: 21 commitments
Class 1: 21 commitments
Class 2: 23 commitments
Walkons graduating out of our system: 4
Estimated attrition over the first three seasons: 18

Even in the worst case scenario where our new coach comes in and dislikes nearly all of Spaz's incoming recruits, this one class won't be a long-term issue. And even if someone like Marquis Little is lacking ACC talent, he is just one player. At worst all of these recruits in the transitional class are just depth and warm bodies. By Year 3 more than half of the players on the roster will be the new coach's. If he's aggressive in his roster management, he could have as many as 50 players in his first two full classes. That's a lot of talent and a reminder of how quickly rosters can turn in college football.  

I know that the classes don't line up perfectly as they graduate but the point of this was to demonstrate how the rosters churn and anticipate the flexibility the new coach should have. We will be young in his third year, but we will be his team.


Mr X 2.0 said...

ATL, what is BC's practice with respect to honoring scholarships for a 5th year after a marginal athlete graduates?

For example, if a player redshirts his frosh year, but then goes on to be reserve player (not a starter; not on 2-deep), will BC allow the person to stay a 5th year?

I seem to recall that BC lets this type of 5th year marginal player walk. Is that right?

If so, it is really only 4 years of classes the new coach will deal with?

ATL_eagle said...

BC honors four years. A fifth year is the coach's call.

ATL_eagle said...

BC honors four years. A fifth year is the coach's call.

Jeff said...

I just hope we have some success this year, so Spaz can retire on a (relatively) high note, and we'll have a little momentum for the new coach to build on. If we let this season fall apart like last year, it'll be a tough job to come into.

JBQ said...

Just to remind everyone how Nebraska recruited in the past. First of all, each recruit had his own individual weight station. They would have something like twenty-five "walk-ons". Secretly, each walk-on was having his scholarship paid for. Each thus player was assigned to a different county in Nebraska. That county was responsible for raising the money for their assigned player. BC "goes by the rules" but very few others do. "Ever to Excel" has always worked when all the other parameters were working as well. The "Spaz syndrome" has ruined the calculus involved.

EL MIZ said...

recruiting is such an inexact science that it cracks me up when people complain about guys not being "known" as 12th graders. former players who were "not ranked" by ESPN who wound up starting:

alex albright (made NFL roster)
justin jarvis
rich lapham
deleon gause
dominique davis (made NFL roster)
dominic legrande
ryan quigley (made NFL roster)
ian white
nate freese

point is -- this OLB Little could wind up being a contributor.

otherwise, not much more to say -- schollies are just another thing Spaz mismanaged, like timeouts and game strategy. at least this one will help us out for next year. the new coach will also have a senior QB and seniors on D, which i imagine will help competitiveness.