Thursday, October 25, 2012

BC-Maryland preview

I've covered BC's relationship with Randy Edsall in the past. I still hold the opinion that I have no regrets about not hiring him at various times over the years. But he should be a lesson to our new coach. Edsall took over a mediocre Maryland team and wasn't afraid of ruffling feathers. He had huge attrition and a terrible first season. But he regrouped, ramped up his recruiting efforts and has doubled his win total so far. A turnaround at BC can happen as quickly even if we have a rough season in 2013.


Hot Seat Thermometer
Although his interactions with the press are getting testy, I think things have cooled a bit for Spaz. It's over. He knows it and we know it. But as I wrote, Spaz is very likely to finish out the season. That's got to be a little relief. Now he can stop worrying about what is going to happen and focus on winning a few more games.
Temperature: a sizzling fajita plate

Overlooked Storyline: This is probably the last time BC will be favored this season
I am still amazed by the point spread in this game. It remains at BC-1.5. Most of that can be rationalized by Maryland's QB issues, but this team has still accomplished more than BC. After Maryland, the rest of BC's opponents are at or above .500. The only way BC is favored again is if we win this weekend and Wake Forest looks really bad. We will be heavy underdogs against Notre Dame and get at least three points each against NC State and Virginia Tech.

Three Simple Keys
1. Rettig distributing the ball. He's been looking at Swigert as much as he focused on Amidon earlier in the year. If we are going to start scoring again and keep Maryland on their toes, we need Chase to work all his progressions and get multiple people involved in the offense.
2. Stop them on third down. Our offense cannot score if they cannot get on the field. Last week was pathetic. This week we need to be creative and apply pressure on third down.
3. Stop Diggs. He's their best reciever and will be the primary target of either QB. WRs have been getting open on us all year. Maybe this week we should try some double coverage.

Gambling Notes
-- The home team in this series has lost three straight
-- Edsall is 2-9 after a loss while head coach at Maryland
-- Spaz is 0-6 against the spread when facing an FBS team this year
The current line is BC-1.5

Factoid
As most know BC will be wearing uniforms to honor the Wounded Warrior Project. This will be the first time BC has used white as a base color for our jerseys during a home game in 27 years. [UPDATE: Reid Oslin checked in to alert me to the fact that BC was the "home team" when we played Ohio State in the 1995 Kickoff Classic at the Meadowlands. Dan Henning elected to have us in whites because of the heat.]

Scoreboard Watching
I'll be watching Notre Dame and Oklahoma. No disrespect to Pitt, but if the Irish win, they will be undefeated when we face them. Under normal years, I would say that is right where we want them. This year, I fear an ass kicking worse than the Florida State game.

I hope to see...
The defense make some big plays. Not only is it frustrating to watch them get picked apart, it is maddening that they rarely make game changing plays. Where are the turnovers? Where are the tackles behind the line of scrimmage? That needs to change this weekend.

BC is in trouble if...
Maryland completes more than 50% of their passes. They are untested and we need to disrupt their rhythm, force bad throws and get pressure.

Bottom Line
The point spread on this game surprised me because of public perception. I think most casual fans view BC as terrible and Spaz as a lame duck. But I do understand why we are favored. We've underachieved but still have enough pieces to be competitive. Maryland doesn't know what they have at QB and we are at home.  All of that leans towards BC. I also think a little dumb luck and some guys having big games gives us another win over the Terps.
Final Score: BC 24, Maryland 14

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11 Comments:

At 10:39 AM, Blogger mod34b said...

A point spread is not a prediction on the outcome of a game. It is a prediction by the gaming house of the point where 50% of the betters will go with BC and 50% will go with MD.

In truth, most people think BC will lose. I do.


 
At 10:59 AM, Blogger mod34b said...

The stats from CFB (for FBS teams only)

MD Total D #11 (nationally)
BC Total O #84

BC Total D #123
MD Total O #115

When BC is on O, its Bad O vs Great D

When MD is on O, its Bad O vs Bad D.

Advantage MD

Plus we have the Spaz factor.

 
At 11:10 AM, Blogger I'm Keith said...

Remember how in 2007 we were ranked No. 2 in the nation and erased a 10-0 lead against VT with like two minutes left? That was legit.

 
At 11:29 AM, Blogger WI_Eagle said...

A point spread is the collective (i.e. market's) prediction on the outcome of the game.

 
At 11:41 AM, Blogger Jeff said...

@WI_Eagle:

Not exactly. If by "market", you mean the gambling community then yes.

The goal of the casino is to balance betting on both sides, so that it doesn't lose much money regardless of the game's outcome. So if the line opened at BC +1 and moved to BC -1, that means that a lot of people were betting on BC, so they moved the line to encourage more betting on Maryland.

So yeah it kind of makes me wonder where all these pro-BC bettors are coming from and what games they have been watching??

 
At 12:42 PM, Blogger Bill Nealon said...

I watched the Maryland - NC St game last week. Maryland has a pretty good D. The #3 and 4 QBs actually rallied the team after #2 went down. As a BC fan I hate to say it, but Maryland should be easy $ unless they lay an egg.

 
At 6:42 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

I've said it before and I'll say it again, we are not going to win another game with this head coach. Even with the cool uniforms, which I like - too bad I won't see them as the game is on ESPN3...whatever that is...?

 
At 9:08 PM, Blogger Knucklehead said...

BC lines are always incorrect.

Based on the way Wake is getting speedbagged at home tonight I think that we have a CHANCE against them. They are MUCH better coached than us however.

 
At 9:25 PM, Blogger Erik said...

Wake Forest looks awful.

 
At 2:14 PM, Blogger Big Jack Krack said...

Until they were recently exposed, Maryland played the best game against WVU.

If Martin gives Chase a good plan, I think we can put up 4 scores - maybe more.

The problem is, we can't stop anybody.

We have to give our offense a chance by getting them on the field so they can find some rythmn.

 
At 3:04 PM, Blogger mod10aeagle said...

I think the offense needs to win the time of possession battle for us to have any chance of winning the game. Score, yes, by all means, but please take your time doing it. I know, it's stupid -- like telling your starting pitcher to try to increase his pitch count without giving up any more runs. But, that's where we are with this defense.

 

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