Thursday, November 01, 2012

BC-Wake Forest preview

I feel like we are due for a crazy BC-Wake Forest game. The last two have been fairly ho-hum events. But all the BC-Wake games between 2003 and 2009 were filled with drama or last second wins. Wake Forest has a better record and is favored, but they are a flawed team also. They've lost three out of their last four and like us looked bad against Clemson and Florida State. I think both teams' styles will also lend to an even matchup. Let's just hope BC comes out ahead.

Hot Seat Thermometer
I don't think last week's win did much to change the perception on Spaz. It might have even hurt it as BC squandered a lead and didn't seem to rattle Maryland's fourth string QB. I don't think the Wake outcome will change anything either, but I hope the Spaz and the staff try to build off of the emotion and momentum of the Maryland win.
Temperature: a pizza oven

Overlooked Storyline: BC and Wake Forest have a very similar schedule
The transitive property is pretty flawed in sports. Who you beat and who I beat doesn't always follow logic when both teams take the field. However it you ever wanted to apply it to college football, you could probably start with BC and Wake. Obviously there are the shared division opponents but this year Wake also scheduled Army and Notre Dame. As a frame of reference they beat Army in a shootout and play the Irish the two weeks after we do.

Three Simple Keys
1. Pick off Price. Last week our INTs made the difference. It felt like BC football of old. Tanner Price is a solid QB, so we need to keep him in the pocket and force him to throw into coverage.
2. Change field position with Special Teams. Spiffy was aggressive and productive last week in the return game. BC couldn't always capitalize  We need him to continue that aggressiveness and shorten the field for the offense. We also need a consistent day from Levano. Maybe he should do more rugby style punts.
3. No big plays. BC's plan against Maryland was working until Diggs finally took one all the way. If we are going to be a classic Spaz D, the key is bending, not breaking. Davis is Wake's most explosive player. We need to keep him in front of our DBs.

Gambling Notes
-- BC has won their last two games in Winston-Salem
-- Spaz is 2-1 vs Jim Grobe
-- Grobe is 33-32 coming off of a loss while at Wake Forest
The current line is BC+3.5

Chase Rettig has two starts against Wake Forest, but he has yet to match Dave Shinskie's success against the Deacons. In 2009, Shinskie threw for 228 yards and three TDs. Rettig's best was 188 yards and one TD in last season's loss.

Scoreboard Watching
How can you not be watching Notre Dame-Pitt? Not only does it impact the start time of our game next week, but the game will also determine if the Irish remain undefeated. During normal years I would play down the Notre Dame series. This year we need the hope of an unbeaten ND team. Being a spoiler to their latest "Return to Glory" would be the highlight of the season and probably the Spaz era.

I hope to see...
Rettig light it up. Other ACC QBs have put up huge numbers on Wake's pass defense. There is no reason we cannot. Rettig struggled last week but played really well when it mattered most. This week I want to see him click from the first snap to the final whistle.

BC is in trouble if...
We cannot stop the run. Wake is not a particularly efficient passing team. We need to them to throw and throw a lot. It will force mistakes and get us the ball back. If they establish the run early, it could be a lot like the Georgia Tech game where our offense cannot get on the field.

Bottom Line
I don't think Wake Forest is very good and I think we are better than our record. But things are never that easy. I expect BC to come out early trying to establish the run (when we should be passing). I think we will struggle and the game will be close. In the second half we finally open it up and pull away.
Final Score: BC 28, Wake Forest 20


Big Jack Krack said...

I hope we can put a bunch of points on the board.

Once again, I feel as though we can score 4 TDs and a couple of FGs. And we will probably need that.

Defensively, our depleted DL is playing hard, but I have a few questions.

Will we ever see Ramsey again? What is really going on there? What about Quinn - really?

You'd think that those two veterans could be very effective against Wake.

Wujciak is playing hard, but he's undersized for an interior DL. I think he was recruited as DE.

Ricci is slow with no push. He can clog up the run some, but can't pressure the QB as far as I can see.

Murray has been around, so I'm glad he's getting a chance.

Appiah doesn't seem as effective this year.

What about Bryan Davis - didn't he play DL last week? Why isn't he listed? Oh that's right, it's Spaziani Depth Chart games!

I think Murray and Davis can get some pressure on the QB.

We need fresh legs, so Rudolph, Ramsey and Quinn should be shuffled in and out.

It's November boys! Now or never.

Go BC! Beat Wake Forest!

Big Jack Krack said...

On the offense, let's give CL Jr. a crack at it - for crying out loud. He's a 3 year letterman and our most experienced WR - who has overcome a brutal knee injury.

Bury the hatchet, Spaziani and get him back into the game at some point!

I'm excited about Amidon, Coleman and Swigert - and Pantale. Let's go hurry up all day long on these guys in Winston-Salem.

Don't forget the backs circling out - including the fullback.

Go BC - don't just win - blow them out!

We need our Freshman and Sophomore DEs to come up BIG TIME. Give the LBs and DBs a chance to excel.

EL MIZ said...

BJK -- Quinn withdrew from BC earlier today, per Twitter.

i think the O can score over 30 if we let Rettig air it out.

mod34b said...

BC and Wake have had 4 common opponents his year.

Clemson: BC>31-45; WF>13-42
Maryland: BC>20-17; WF>14-19
Army: BC>31-34; WF>49-37
FLorida St. BC>7-51; WF>0-52

Remarkable how both BC and WF defenses yielded almost the same amount of points in each game. So the defense are about the same on this basis. BC had better offense agaisnt the commion opponents. Advantage BC.

Here are some CFB stats (FBS schools only)

Total O BC: 92; WF: 111
Total D BC 122; WF: 79

BC O #92 vs WF D #79
WF O #111 vs BC D #122

slight edge to Wake

BC Pass O #27 vs WF pass D # 71
WF Pass 0 #89 vs BC Pass D #82

BC has got the edge passing.

Rushing BC D stinks (#122) but so does WF O (#105)

But Tanner did well against BC last year -- the ghost of Riley Skinner. WF passed for a 100 yards over average vs BC.

I am thinking WF is going to be tough with our horrible DL and bad DBs. But I think BC will win.

mod10aeagle said...

On kick returns: I would like to see "the wall", the three or four guys in front of Spiffy, actually release and go hit someone before Spiffy is only one yard behind them. They always just stand there and then Spiffy is on their heels and they're getting hit (rather than doing the hitting). It blows and should've been fixed in August, at least.

I'll know we're in for a good day offensively, if I see Rettig's heels actually touch the ground after he drops back. If he's worried about having to scramble before he even finishes his drop, his timing and accuracy suffer badly.

dixieagle said...

I'm hoping that Rettig and the O can score enough to pull this one out; I have a pretty good feeling.

On another note, while waiting today to pick up my absentee ballot, I happened to run into a scout for the Kansas City Chiefs. He works with Ryan Poles who used to play with BC. When he found out I was a BC alum, he said "So the clock is ticking on Spaz..." Gosh, I hope he's right.