Monday, November 19, 2012

Second viewing thoughts and grade report: Virginia Tech

It was pretty pathetic. We had some guys killing it out there, we didn't play all that well yet still had a chance to win. Only our Head Coach gave up. I will get into Spaz's flawed logic below, but this game was lost on many fronts. It was a sadly fitting end to this home slate.


Offense: C

Rettig was all over the place. He made some nice passes early that his teammates dropped. Then he started forcing things a bit and moving away from pressure that wasn't always there. He settled down enough and was good late. Statistically it was a horrible day. Reality it was okay. When you factor in the season and the circumstances, he played well enough.

Finch and Dudeck were the best part of the offense. They caught passes well. They found holes and both ran hard. They also both had the same negative: blitz pick up.

The WRs and Tight Ends killed the team on Saturday. Larmond dropped some easy passes. Amidon missed a TD. Evans missed a deep ball. Pantale had huge issues blocking. I don't know if the glares were bad from the sun or they are dejected, but if just a few of those guys make one more play, this might have been a different game.

The OLine had their best running blocking game in weeks. Gallik also had his best game. Vardaro was good. Both tackles were inconsistent. The pass blocking wasn't as sound, but there weren't as many breakdowns as you saw in the Notre Dame game.

Doug Martin has some brilliantly designed plays...that he doesn't use enough. The pass to Pantale out of the backfield with a play fake has worked all year (we used it with Kimble early) but we only used it once. There were some other plays that looked good too but weren't emphasized. I am glad the run game started clicking and credit him for faking to Amidon to hold the edge. Our redzone performance was also a mixed bag.

Defense: C

The broadcast team sung the praise of Ricci, but I thought he got pushed off the ball a lot. Credit him for sticking with the plays and making some tackles. Murray was okay. Edebali had his best game in a few weeks. He closed better and made some heads up plays throughout. Abdesmad got a lot of snaps but didn't do much.

Clancy played really well and made some played behind the line of scrimmage. He covered a lot of space and probably had his best game since Northwestern. Divitto was also improved and made some good tackles. VT's passing game was a mess, so they couldn't exploit him like other teams have. KPL made a few nice plays.

Jim Noel had his best game in weeks. Maybe it was because he spent more snaps at Corner. He made some nice tackles and was aggressive. Sylvia struggled a bit in pass coverage. Rositano played well. The batted ball off his teammate into a VT bomb was just unlucky. Simmons was fine. Asprilla was fine.

We substituted much less this week. I don't know if it was because of performance or because the 1st teams played well in the first half. We will never know if it impacted things, but you have to wonder if all the second half points allowed we in part because of fatigue.

Special Teams: C

The killer Special Teams mistake was allowing their long kick return. I still don't know what happened. There wasn't a big mistake. Just guys missing tackles and looking very very slow. It is like we handled the return in a fog.

Spiffy was good. One thing I tweeted about him is that he's our bravest punt returner in years. He's willing to return it even in heavy traffic when he is likely to get hit.

Levano and Freese both punted to mixed results. I did like the use of rugby style.


Overall: D

I wrote a draft of a longer post on the probability of OT but scrapped it. It was getting long-winded and missing the point. This is the summary:

-- The last possession in regulation has real value and is more valuable than an OT possession simply because Virginia Tech is not guaranteed an equal possession (like they would be in the "innings" format of College Football OT)
-- The probability of the worst outcome in regulation (a turnover leading to a VT score) was lower than the probability of best outcome (a BC score). The most probable outcome was a BC punt.
-- A BC punt may have allowed for a VT score and win, but the probability of that score after our possession was much worse than the probability of VT winning in Overtime.
-- Statistically -- using just winning scenarios probabilities -- BC made the mistake of giving up possession and not attempting a regulation win.

Spaz told the Heights that they had studied and practiced those situations. But in his whole explanation he never once mentions probability or advance statistics. I don't know, but I would bet it never even came up in his practice scenarios. I know their are smart guys on the staff, but do you think they want to explain to Spaz that things have changed and you have to approach things differently? Has he created that kind of culture where challenging thoughts and perspectives are welcome? What do you think? Based simply on his four years of misusing the clock, possessions and timeouts, I bet Spaz either hasn't read the data used by guys like Kelly, Belichick or god forbid the Football Outsiders.

These things are not foolproof or infallible. Smart teams and smart coaches lose games all the time. But what Spaz did was cowardly and ignorant and his impassioned and dismissive defense of his mistake shows he still doesn't get it. Thankfully we only have one more game of this nonsense.

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14 Comments:

At 10:03 AM, Blogger Big Jack Krack said...

Atl - you're pretty generous here - " Sylvia struggled a bit in pass coverage."

As soon as he stepped on the field, I said that there would be a TD pass over him. It didn't take long.

The guy plays and tries hard, but he's over his head. The coaches put him in a position to fail.

 
At 10:35 AM, Blogger JBQ said...

Rettig has done admirably well carrying an incompetant coach on his back without complaint. Hopefully, he will get a chance next year to shine with an entirely different staff.

 
At 10:40 AM, Blogger Erik said...

Can somebody confirm what yard line we were on when we took a knee on 3rd down with about 40 seconds and 2 TOs?

 
At 10:58 AM, Blogger morrina said...

17 yard line, but there were 59 seconds left.

 
At 11:41 AM, Blogger NEDofSavinHill said...

Rettig is improved but he is far from a good QB If BC falls to NC ST. his record as a starter against Div. 1 teams will be 9-22.If Shinskie had played those 31 games would the results be any worse? In overtime on 4th down while not under any pressure he dumps the ball off to the half back well short of the first down. He had ample time to throw it in the end zone and at least try for the victory. He did that on the last home game of the year . In the first home game of the year he was stopped on a QB sneak at one yard line when he forgot it was 4th down. Did he forget it was 4th down against VT when he dumped off the pass. 2. "ESPN told us what to do" Gdf. The latest expansion is about taking care of UConn and punishing the leftovers in the Big East. It was also done to avoid a collusion case by UConn and Rutgers. All that is left in the Big East is recent arrivals with a minimal claim of injury.3. Did anyone note that Gladchuk's coaches TOB, Johnson and Niematolo are all going to bowls. While Gdf's hires Jags and Spaz accumulated a staggering total of one Div. one win in 2012. Fresh blood and happy days are right around the corner.

 
At 1:42 PM, Blogger EL MIZ said...

BC's ATL grades this season:

Va Tech - D
ND -- D
Wake -- C-minus
Maryland -- B-minus
GA Tech -- D
FSU -- F
Army -- F
Northwestern -- D-plus
Maine -- B-minus
Miami -- C

what a joke of a season.

NED i agree with you on Rettig -- it really never seems like he improves overall. he'll make strides in one area while simultaneously regressing in another area on a week to week basis. with the new HC regime, i'd love for them to assess the other QBs, including Suntrup and perhaps the incoming freshman to see if there is someone more able.

 
At 2:21 PM, Blogger NEDofSavinHill said...

The ACC should not relent on the $5o mil exit fee. Maryland should be compelled to pay in full. There is an opportunity for UMass to get in the ACC. There isn't much difference between UConn and UMass in sports. A slight advantage in b-ball but both are non entities in football. UMass is from a larger state with more alums. If UMass would offer a $100mil entry fee the ACC might bite. In the MAC it would get a couple of million for tv rights . In the ACC it would get a $20 mil payout. Have Jack Welch and others put together the financing and outbid UConn. Each present team in the ACC would get an immediate $10 mil infusion from the exit fee and the UMass fee.

 
At 3:00 PM, Blogger CatabEagle said...

El Miz and Ned,

I couldn't agree more about Rettig. He has yet to convince me that he is a BCS-level QB. People love talking about his arm, but QBs need more than an arm (see Jeff George). They need vision, pocket presence, and timing. In those three areas Rettig is severely deficient. I hope the next coach has an open battle for QB1 next spring.

I also agree MD should pay pull freight for their exit. I disagree with NED for the next entrant. If I had my druthers, I'd try to get either (a) Vandy (b)Northwestern, or (c) Rice. These three universities all fit the ACC profile of D1-sports and top-20 academics. If we could get any one of these three I'd consider it a huge win.

 
At 4:40 PM, Blogger mod10aeagle said...

I agree that Rettig has not progressed as much as he should have, but I question whether he's gotten sufficient coaching. He's on his third or fourth OC since coming to BC. How many QB coaches has he had, then? Also, isn't Martin the QB coach? Is it really possible to implement a new offense AND coach technique?

 
At 9:12 PM, Blogger Knucklehead said...

Rettig is a first round draft pick if he makes it through next season alive. Remember when Matt Ryan played his senior year with broken bone in his foot. Rettig has been playing with a hurt back and knee issues since the Maine game. He is the only legitimate Division 1 player on the team.

Anyone who questions Rettig ought to be thrown off the island.

You all are PATHETIC and do not know anything about football let alone Boston College football. And I don't care about your credentials or experience or whatever BS you are going to come back with.

 
At 9:15 PM, Blogger Knucklehead said...

Go back and watch the games. There is NO OTHER quarterback in college football who has taken the hits, rushes, knockdowns and lack of talented teammates that Rettig has over the past three years.

Imagine if Shinksie were the QB in the Miami game this season, he would lined up under the guard and not the center.

 
At 9:48 PM, Blogger bc1900 said...

If he plays well next year maybe he gets drafted. He is ranked on avg the 25th best junior qb according to most draft sites and draft individuals. No offense but where are you getting this idea of first round?

 
At 8:55 AM, Blogger Knucklehead said...

What I see him doing on the field.
He has one receiver who went to Hotchkiss, no running backs, no offensive line and a revolving door of incompetent coaches. Put him on an average team and his stats go from being right now 3000 yards 17 and 10 to 3800 yards 24 and 12.

Bridgewater, Murray, Bray . . . Rettig.

Logan Thomas is terrible.

 
At 2:14 PM, Blogger mod10aeagle said...

He doesn't call himself Knuck for knuthin'.

 

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