Monday, December 10, 2012

What should we expect next season?

In talking to various people the past week, I was surprised that two different BC employees shared their optimism for 2013. They think we will win next year and that the ability to win right away factored into the Addazio decision.

2-10 is the best indicator that BC was a bad team. Even if you think Spaz underachieved (like I do), that terrible record means that even with great coaching, this team didn't have the talent to win the ACC. Next year the majority of that team returns. They will be more experienced and presumably better coached, but can we expect much improvement? 4-8 would be doubling our win total. Getting to six wins and a bowl would be worthy of ACC Coach of the year consideration.

There are still many unknowns:

  • who will fill our open date? 
  • what sort of offense will he run with Rettig? 
  • what recruits will we land? 
  • will any of this year's injured players make a healthy return?

Assuming we schedule a cupcake to fill our open slot, four wins should be achievable. In my opinion six wins really depends on the strength of the ACC next season. What do you expect from our new coach next season?


Labels:

44 Comments:

At 12:02 AM, Blogger Matt said...

I believe Addazio will get at least 6 wins.

 
At 12:21 AM, Blogger mod34b said...

Home: Army, Stony Brook, Florida State, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Wake Forest

Road: USC, Clemson, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, [Easy Team]

Wins: 1 Army, 2 Easy Team, 3 Wake, 4 Stony Brook, 5. MD

Loss: 1 USC, 2 Clemson, 3 FSU,

Maybe/Maybe not: 1 GT, 2 NCSU, 3 VT, 4 UNC

We win 6. Hope is restored.

 
At 2:46 AM, Blogger TheFive said...

If Addazio was hired because we have some outside shot at six wins next year and he promised to deliver them, the shortsightedness of those in charge is shocking. We do have a chance to be decent next year, in relation, that is, to the following two years. Spaz's coaching killed the program in real time. His recruiting will be his legacy gift and really hurts the team in 2014 and 2015.

Thus is at least a five year rebuilding process with an oasis of hope next yr because of Rettig. If we hired Shrek because he promised big things next year over those better suited to rebuild the program... that's an indictment of all involved. And, frankly, embarrassing.

 
At 8:48 AM, Blogger blist said...

He'll win at least 7. I think this team was much more talented (granted, not deep in talent) than Spaz' coaching showed.
We can't have it both ways -- everyone was worried about BC becoming irrelevant if the losing continued. If winning now was a major factor, then it shouldn't bother us too much.

 
At 8:58 AM, Blogger Big Jack Krack said...

This year's team would have lost to Stony Brook.

 
At 9:11 AM, Blogger EL MIZ said...

what does "the ability to win right away factored into the Addazio decision" mean? that, plus Bates' comment that Addazio really impressed him with the knowledge of the team (when he had weeks to prepare because they didn't make a bowl AND more importantly he had former BC staffers on his staff!) are humongous red flags to me. i'm still not really sure if Bates' head is up his a$$ or not, only time will tell.

regardless, i am still hoping Addazio can turn things around. i agree with the consensus here for 6 wins -- if he can just incrementally improve the line play and motivate the team, i think the talent is there, especially with all of the seniors on offense.

 
At 9:37 AM, Blogger Lally said...

I wasn't that crazy about the hire (it was a meh in my book. The fact that our old assistants seem to be retaining/returning makes even more meh) but are people really complaining about the fact that our new coach may expect to win games next year?

People, come on. Isn't that the whole point? I could've been hired if the bar was 2 wins.

 
At 10:33 AM, Blogger NEDofSavinHill said...

The first year of a coaches tenure is almost irrelevant. The only question is he moving the program in the right direction. If he were to win 8 games with a veteran team and followed that with 3 losing seasons that would not be promising. All BC fans have to accept that DAZ is here for the next few years so it would appear to be a misplaced effort to focus on year one. Coughlin and TOB had losing first years but built the team into a national power over time. 2. Everyone assumes that Rettig will be the starter. Wouldn't it be smarter to give Boyle, Lowrie or Suntrup the experience in 2013 then have a veteran QB the following 3 years? The hope is that DAZ is a top notch salesman similar to Petino and Calipari in b-ball and brings in superior talent.

 
At 11:11 AM, Blogger Knucklehead said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 11:12 AM, Blogger Knucklehead said...

Addazio is a filler for Day who has ties to the UNH, Chip Kelly/ Oregon coahcing tree.

Long term key for BC will be timing. When do we get rid of Addazio and let Day take over? Do we have the ability/foresight/timing to make Day the head coach before someone else poaches him.

 
At 11:36 AM, Blogger mod34b said...

Oh, Knucklehead. I can't believe you think Day is some kind of "coach in waiting." hardly.

Stop and think: If Day was all THAT, and part of the Chip Kelley coaching tree, why hasn't Chip offered him a job?

Day was rotten at BC round #1 and rotten at Temple. he presided over the 92nd worst offense in FBS last year.

 
At 12:06 PM, Blogger EL MIZ said...

i don't know about Day as the future HC, but i do think a few things need to be straightened out since so often ppl just say random things that have no grounding in reality:

A) Day played QB for New Hampshire when Chip Kelly was NH's OC.
B) Day coached at New Hampshire for one year when Kelly was the OC.
C) in 05, Day and was a grad assistant at Florida (w/ Addazio as O-line coach and Meyer as HC).
D) in 06, Day was WR Coach at Temple for Al Golden.
E) in 07-10, Day coached at BC. he was not and never was a "Spaz" guy, he came to BC with Jags/Logan.
F) mod34b, he was "rotten at BC?" our offense in 07 was pretty damn good, I think Matt Ryan threw for over 4k yards. in 08 we had 2 of the top 10 receivers in the ACC (gunnell and robinson) with below average QB play. in 09 gunnell had another big year with Shinskie as QB.
G) i know firsthand the players who played under Day liked him and think he's a good coach.
H) According to this article, Day was recruited by Kelly to Oregon:
"In the Pacific Northwest, Chip Kelly is at the controls for high-powered University of Oregon. Manchester's Kelly, while offensive coordinator and QB coach at UNH from 1999-2006, recruited Day to Durham. The current Ducks head coach also attempted to bring Day aboard at Oregon a few years ago."

http://www.unionleader.com/article/20120214/SPORTS/702149981

i'm not sure about his time at Temple or whether he will be the future Head Coach, but i do think his track record is decent. the fact that he left the program while Spaz was HC should, if anything, be a positive and a sign that he knew spaz was garbage and would rather coach elsewhere.

 
At 1:02 PM, Blogger chicagofire1871 said...

Wins?...Nothing about this hire had anything to do with winning. Not now, not later.

This was a Fr. Leahy/BOT hire. And their #1 priority is graduating players and molding young minds. A noble pursuit to be sure.

Often times we, as fans, of the team root for the Eagles as if we were rooting for the Patriots. The Pats want to win. BC would only like to if it's convenient. It's not the same thing.

 
At 1:07 PM, Blogger JBQ said...

Four losses were by less than 10 points. Enthusiasm would have made the difference. If Daz brings it, they are already at 6 wins. Rettig is very good. If he plays with calmness instead of carrying the team on his "Beach Boy" back, everything will be fine. Spaz ran off a goodly number of defensive players for God knows what reason. If we get leadership, we will be there.

 
At 1:08 PM, Blogger Jeff said...

I can't believe how negative most of you guys are... it really doesn't help anything.

Back to Atl's original question, I do think we can win 6+ games next year. Heck, as bad as we were last year (reeaaaally bad) we still could have won 4 games with anyone other than Spaz managing the game.

I know it's been a tough few years, and a lot of you are not excited about the hire... but let's try to give Addazio a clean slate, and some cautious optimism.

 
At 1:37 PM, Blogger AA said...

I would be thrilled with a 6-6 season and that is assuming the missing game is a bodybag game. Year two 7 wins and perhaps 8 in year three. That is the clear goal. ACC is still a down league, though UL subbing in for UMd makes is slightly more challenging.

 
At 1:39 PM, Blogger Joseph said...

Way to say it Jeff.

 
At 2:11 PM, Blogger mod34b said...

El Miz - Yes, Day was rotten.

By the way, Ryan Day was the BC WR coach from 2007-2011. If we take the phenom Matt Ryan out of the picture and look at Day's recent results, perhaps you will agree with me.

National Passing Ranking at BC while Day was WR coach:

2009 #101
2010 #99
2011 #100
2012 (after Ryan Day left) #40.

So the pass/receiving game improved markedly when Ryan left.

Let's look at his work at Temple as OC.

2011 (before Ryan is OC) #68
2012 (Ryan is OC) # 112

Ryan made the Temple Offense much much worse.

When Ryan was a BC, the overall offense ranks:
2009: #101
2010: #111
2011: #111

Ryan Day has presided over 4 years of truly miserable offensive football at BC and then Temple.

Also, I think Day knew was going to be fired by Spaz in 2011. He was slated for launch and decided to get a another job.

So, yes, Ryan Day is rotten and I am unaware of any recent results showing success associated with Ryan Day.

By the way, Ryan does have incredibile associations with major coaches (Urban Meyer, Dan Mullins, Al Golden, Chip Kelley, TOB) but the only people that wanted him were Spaz and Addazio.

I hope Ryan Day is great, but I am not yet persuaded he was a good choice for BC in his third "Tour of Duty" at the Heights.

 
At 2:48 PM, Blogger EL MIZ said...

i'm confused mod. in a Ned of Savin Hill style response...

1. i know Day was at BC 07-11, which is why i talked about his time during those years.
2. you said the only people that want Day are Spaz and Addazio, and then say that Spaz wanted to fire him. which is it? also, for the millionth time, Day wasn't hired by Spaz, he returned to BC in 07. unless i am missing something, in january of 2007 BC hired jeff jagodzinski.
3. you also said chip kelly never wanted him, but Kelly did try to get him to Oregon according to at least one article about Day. ok...
4. lets discount 2007 (the only year BC had a QB during his tenure as WR coach) since it hurts your argument, OK....
5. you talk about total offense yards when Day was the WR coach, not the offensive coordinator.
6. in 2008 how did the WRs do? robinson had 42 catches/646 yards, gunnell had 49 catches/551 yards. they were 8th/11th respectively in yards, and 7th/10th in receptions. 2 top 10 ACC WRs. rotten!
6. in 2009 gunnell tied for 6th in receptions in the ACC and was 3rd in yards.
7. 10 and 11 were dismal years with the immortal Spaz at the helm, but those are definitely not years to put in Day's "career highlights."

its just hard to follow you -- you focus on the Offense when his WR #'s were actually good, you say Spaz wanted him and wanted to fire him, lets just discount 2007 b/c we had a good QB that year. whatever.

his offense at Temple stunk, but he was there for one year. maybe the players stunk?

i hope Day does well, too. 10-12 were not good years and if we can't produce next year with seniors at QB, RB, WR, and along the line, i'll be leading the charge to fire the guy. but like Jeff said, this is a new regime and i am going to look at the positives and not dwell on far fetched negatives.

 
At 3:27 PM, Blogger Joseph said...

Mod, have you spoken with any professionals about your unjustified anger? Listen to miz, you might learn something. Don't work to hard to justify your extremes. It really is not as bad now as you would believe it to be. There is hope. Seize it. Hold it. Enjoy it.

 
At 4:05 PM, Blogger mod34b said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 4:05 PM, Blogger mod34b said...

ps Joseph...you crack me up with your nonsense

 
At 4:11 PM, Blogger mod34b said...

Miz -- It's not really all that confusing. I preferred the 2009-12
data over the 2007-08 data because it was more current and better reflects who RD is today. Yes, the old data puts Day is a better light, but what happened afterward?

And, Yes, Spaz was for Day before he was against Day... or something like that.

I used passing stats for the period when RD was WR Coach and Overall O stats when RD was OC. is there a better metric?

Nothing confusing about it. Day's last last 4 years do NOT reflect success.

As to your # points

1. i know Day was at BC 07-11, which is why i talked about his time during those years.

you said above "in 07-10, Day coached at BC" -- leaving out 2011

2. you said the only people that want Day are Spaz and Addazio, and then say that Spaz wanted to fire him. which is it? also, for the millionth time, Day wasn't hired by Spaz, he returned to BC in 07. unless i am missing something, in january of 2007 BC hired jeff jagodzinski.

yes, and Spaz hired him by retaining him on his new staff; and, ok, a certifiable loony Jags liked him too

3. you also said chip kelly never wanted him, but Kelly did try to get him to Oregon according to at least one article about Day. ok...
article from a NH paper was 'homer" city and probably bullshit; nobody stays with Spaz if Chip Kelley is calling. c'mon now

4. lets discount 2007 (the only year BC had a QB during his tenure as WR coach) since it hurts your argument, OK....

see above

5. you talk about total offense yards when Day was the WR coach, not the offensive coordinator.

see above

6. in 2008 how did the WRs do? robinson had 42 catches/646 yards, gunnell had 49 catches/551 yards. they were 8th/11th respectively in yards, and 7th/10th in receptions. 2 top 10 ACC WRs. rotten!

see above

6. in 2009 gunnell tied for 6th in receptions in the ACC and was 3rd in yards.

So what?, overall the passing game stunk under Day in 2009

7. 10 and 11 were dismal years with the immortal Spaz at the helm, but those are definitely not years to put in Day's "career highlights."

are you really bringing ou the Spazoo Excuse train to absolve Day! Now that's lame

 
At 4:22 PM, Blogger nceaglefan said...

I learn something new on this board everyday, I never knew enthusiam wins games! I thought all along that talent and coaching were the reason.

 
At 4:52 PM, Blogger Joseph said...

yes enthusiasm wins games, not alone, but with talent and with good coaching. A talented, well coached athlete will always be beaten by an equally talented and well coached athlete who has the enthusiastic desire to excel and adds that extra bit of hunger to win.

So, now mod is blaming me for his crack up. Sorry Mod, it was really unintended. I wish you well in your recovery. Listen to miz it will speeds things along (jeff can help as well).

 
At 5:16 PM, Blogger mod10aeagle said...

Man, this is going to be the longest off-season in history.

 
At 5:53 PM, Blogger Scoop said...

To ATL's question, I expect the coach to implement a run-heavy offense to control the clock and shorten the games in order to keep our ultra-slow defense on the sidelines as much as possible. If he is successful in designing a ball control running game with an O-line that had little success run blocking, and the D shows some improvement (don't ask me how since no one can coach speed), we should win 5 or 6 games. If, on the other hand, Dazoo forces a spread option offense (as opposed to a more standard running game) on these players, I can see them winning 2 games or less, not unlike in 1979 when Ed Chlebek imposed the Veer on a Power-I team and went winless with .500 talent.

Re: Mod on Day. I'm not sold on the guy and don't like him being brought back, but how much credit or blame do you give to Tranquil and his offensive philosophy for the team's passing/receiving performance in 2009 and 2010? How do we parse Day's impact in 2011 when Roger's started out as OC and Brock & Day picked up the pieces during the season? The passing numbers aren't very good in 09-11, granted, but it's not clear cut how much of the responsibility rests with Day.

 
At 5:53 PM, Blogger nceaglefan said...

The point made above was that if we had more enthusiasm last year we would have won more games. Joseph I bet you gotta a lot of trophies for just being on the team back in your day!

 
At 5:54 PM, Blogger Big Jack Krack said...

Too funny, Mod10

 
At 6:00 PM, Blogger mod34b said...

Scoop: Parsing is tough, but bottom line is that there is nothing in the Day's last 4-5 years of work that is predictive of success at BC in 2013-16.

Day has not been a success. So why did BC hire him? even with Addazio in charge, BC should ahve done better at OC....

 
At 6:36 PM, Blogger SAMOFSAVINHILL said...

Moderator:
I'm confused. Dazio was hire because people wanted to win right away? What does that mean?
Were there coaches out there they could hire who weren't going to win right away?
Does it mean he'll win next year but lose after that?
Does it mean a good coach would lose next year and then begin to win?
Anyway, it seemed like a poor reason to give to support a hire.
My other point is that I'd rather have BC as a 2 win team aiming for 10 wins rather than what everyone else here seems to want is a stupid six win season and a bowl in North Dakota. I've never seen so many people settling for mediocrity.
BC felt into that trap where it kept saying it had gone to bowls for 12 straight years as if that was important. Bowls are nothing since there are 70 or more teams that get to go to them.
I want BC to be a winner like it once was. You've already set a low margin for Dazio which I'm sure he'll meet. How can you all be so satisfied with such poor hopes?

 
At 8:10 PM, Blogger Joseph said...

Sorry NCE that I took what you said as what you meant. Probably have as many trophies as you, but fail to get the point. Something to do with enthusiasm and winning? MAybe talent and coaching? Who knows.

 
At 8:18 PM, Blogger eagleboston said...

My Gosh, ATL, it is only December. Who in the hell knows how many games BC will win? There are so many factors such as the recruiting class, injuries, what kind of offense and defense will be run, the level of competition including who leaves early for the NFL, how well off-season conditioning goes. . Ask us this question in August.

 
At 8:32 PM, Blogger EL MIZ said...

do we know who the Defensive Coordinator or the rest of the coaching staff is yet?

all we know is that Day is the OC, Frye is the O-Line coach, so presumably Martin and Bollman are out.

please tell me McGovern is out as well.

mod34b -- we can end our debate there. if you can't see the relevance of WR production when assessing the WR coach, then that's as much time as i'll spend on it. i have no idea what Day is going to give us as a coach, but i do think there are some positives in his resume, that's all i'm saying.

 
At 8:58 PM, Blogger mod10aeagle said...

ATL - I think this would be a good time to post pictures of UA's proposed changes to the uniform for next season. Seriously. Responses would be 100% subjective, unencumbered by impure data and yet equally meaningless.

 
At 9:11 PM, Blogger mod34b said...

El Miz - total passing yards = team receiver production. Team passing yards is the best statistic to gauge WR coach's results.

2009-2011Day gets a D-/F

OC @Temple Day gets D-/F

The facts are clear.

The rationality we choose apply to those facts differs.

:-)

 
At 9:17 PM, Blogger Brett said...

A quick thought - watched Bobby Petrino's press conference at WKU. The man is Catholic and came cheap ($850k). Would the "forgiveness/second chance" narrative not fly at BC? This would definitely be a game-changer (for better or for worse). People on the comments section are often critical of Fr. Leahy, but he is certainly a man of great faith.

 
At 9:25 PM, Blogger Knucklehead said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 9:26 PM, Blogger Knucklehead said...

The over arching issue with this team is the offensive line.

The line is not going to be very good next season, if history is any indicator and it ususally is.

The next issue, with the team, is the utter lack of talent at the skill positions.

Addazio is a step from Spaz simply because HE GIVES A SHIT.

After onr full recruiting class , two yeara from now, the team will be .500/ competitive again.

Miz mentioned Rich Gunnel and Brandon Robinson. I remember when they were at BC I thought they overrated. I WISH that we had players like now.

Screw Spaz. Screw Jags.

Two FRAUDS.

 
At 9:45 PM, Blogger EL MIZ said...

OC at temple i'm fine with giving Day a D.

WR coach and WR production should not be measured by Passing Yards. more goes into Passing yards than whether the WRs are good -- can the o-line block? is there a run game? how good is the quarterback? how good are the TEs? etc

if you give the WR coach who coached the WR who is the all-time leader in yards at BC, and who had two WRs in the top 10 in the ACC in yards and receptions a 'D', then I wonder what he would need to do to merit a C+ or even a B? perhaps coach a WR who wins the Heisman trophy? And an A? beyond setting the single season touchdown record and winning the Heisman, I'd guess get drafted #1 overall?

 
At 1:12 AM, Blogger Bravesbill said...

I'd agree with what Brett said. The whole forgiveness/redemption/second chance meme would have been great for BC, plus they would have gotten a legitimate college football coach. Let's not forget that he was run out of Arkansas, not because of any NCAA or coaching violations, but because of an extra-marital affair.

 
At 8:43 PM, Blogger Knucklehead said...

You just gave the reason why he would NEVER be hired by Boston College.

Ae there real people out there who think that Bobby Petrino was or should have been on BC's radar.

He douched his way out of every job he has ever had. If you get busted in Arkansas for scumbag behavior then you are a true degenerate. Just ask Matt Jones

 
At 11:18 PM, Blogger Bravesbill said...

He douched his way out of every job? Really? You're blaming him for leaving Louisville for an upgrade just like every other coach would in America? Did Meyer douche his way out of Utah to go to Florida? Did Kelley douche his way out of Cincy to go to ND? Petrino did douche his way out of Atlanta and he should be held accountable for that, but your other claims are ridiculous.

 
At 10:20 PM, Blogger city said...

thanks for sharing.

 

Post a Comment

<< Home