Thursday, September 26, 2013

BC-Florida State preview

We all knew this part of the schedule would be rough. But reading about it in March is one thing. Sitting through it in September is another. I guess I would feel better if we had kept the USC game closer. As is, this should be a severe test for Addazio. I hope he gets creative and plays to win instead of just keeping it close.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
On a day with a lot of exciting games, it is encouraging that we still got a national slot at 3:30. We are coming off a 2-10 season and are heavy underdogs, yet ESPN felt this was still one of their better matchups for the afternoon. I think it shows the resiliency of our TV product (partially based on market size). If or when the football factories split from the NCAA, I think BC can still have a seat at the table.

Three Simple Keys
1. Break tendency on offense.  Opponents don't have much tape on BC's new system yet, but I think everyone knows we want to run. This has enabled some surprise plays and deep balls, but I don't think it is a good idea to be that predictable early. I would love to see BC start the game passing. It might keep the 'Noles off balance for a bit. And it might keep our Offensive line from getting blown up.
2. Don't be afraid to blitz Winston. He's going to run but we may get a big play or some stops if we pressure him early.
3. Give Rettig some short passes. Against USC he was rushed constantly. A series of short passes and three-step drops might help the offense move and keep him upright.

Gambling Notes
-- Florida State has covered their last two double-digits spreads against BC
-- Addazio has yet to face a Top 10 team at Temple or BC
-- Fisher is 11-6 on the road
The current line is BC+21.5

BC has a winning record in Tallahassee but a losing record to Florida State in Chestnut Hill.

Scoreboard Watching
Saturday is filled with interesting matchups. Wake Forest at Clemson is something to keep an eye. I expect Clemson to blow them out, but a close game will be an indicator if we can hang with the Tigers. I am also interested to see how Army does against Louisiana Tech. Everyone (including me) assumes we will beat Army, but last year was a bit of a wake up call.

I hope to see...
Better Offensive Line play. As I said at the time, USC wasn't mistake filled. Our guys were just pushed around and too slow. I didn't expect miracles overnight, but Offensive Line is one of the areas where good position coaching can cover a lot of flaws. If we are every going to be great again, it will come from better line play and that comes from coaching. Last week the OL didn't look good. Last year against FSU, the line looked bad. Let's hope we start to see real improvement. It will bode well for the future.

BC is in trouble if...
We cannot get the ball to Amidon. Even in tight coverage, we need to find ways to get him the ball. If he is not getting the ball, it probably means we are struggling on offense.

Bottom Line
I made a habit of picking BC to win every game in these previews until things got really dark under Spaz. As I explained when I started picking against BC, I honestly couldn't talk myself into a win. I feel the same way this week. I am not off of the Addazio bandwagon at all. It is more a case of BC not having the pieces to win this type of game and FSU finally getting to the stage where they don't beat themselves. I think BC will try to establish the run early and when it doesn't work try to play catch up. I won't be discouraged as it is all part of the recovery process.
Final Score: Florida State 31, BC 10


mod34b said...

NOTE to Ryan Day: Please take some chances.

This is not the kind of game "to establish the run" and to "continue to try to establsih the run" until the 4Q arrives.

Try something new. It does not need to be trickeration (but it could be). Try things like quick TE slants and throw into traffic over the middle. Rettig can thread the needle. Do the fullback wheel route again. That was nice. Don't place Rettig under center. Shotgun type formations all day (also good for setting up some types of screens). Give Rettig a chance because the OL will be swiss cheese Saturday. Put those new freshman in for some action. Let them get some great exposure.

REPEAT -> Do not run Williams into the line again and again and again.

CT said...

Hopefully Daz can use a competitive game on Saturday to boost his recruiting profile, which, as ATL said, should start with both lines.

It'll also be interesting to see how Day adapts to the pool-table-dropped-on-your-head realization that BC's game speed, or lack thereof, needs to be compensated for by scratching out some chunk plays. As the post says above, that might require some creativity and/or some unscouted looks. The first couple of possessions will be interesting to watch to see how BC adjusts.

Interesting (fairly short) article in the Wall St. Journal about declining student attendance at college football games across the country. Thought it was a good piggyback off of a recent post about BC's troubles to put buns in the seats.

NEDofSavinHill said...

All BC fans should be hopeful. The team even last year, was competitive at home. Against ND, Miami and Clemson, all quality teams, BC was in the contest. So expect a similar entertaining match on Saturday. FSU looked potent vs Pitt but the Panthers surrendered 55 to Duke so the FSU offense may not have seen a capable defense yet. Will BC be that defense? Stuff the line, shut down the run and pressure the QB. On offense run the wildcat with Willis as QB and Rouse as RB. Pass more than 19 times in the game. Throw on first down run on third. Final score BC 20 FSU 16.

eagleboston said...

I just hope BC can stay within 4 touchdowns.

dixieagle said...

Perfect opportunity to be gutsy and creative; nothing to lose.

Big Jack Krack said...

Getting ready to jump my flight to BeanTown.

Go BC.

eagle1331 said...

I think this game comes down to 2 simple things:
1) The defense keeping its assignments. I don't care whether it is conservative or gutsy, just do what you're supposed to and they will give us a shot.

2) Ryan Day going past page 2 of his playbook and seeing the field beyond 7 years from the line of scrimmage. A game plan like USC will hurt us. Unwillingness to adapt like at USC will embarrass us on National TV. I wasn't a fan of Day during his first stay at BC, and 2 weeks ago re-emphasized that to me. I think he has proven why he fell off the Chip Kelly coaching tree in just 3 games. He has no creativity or cajones. He is all hype with the "best young minds in college football" crap.

Prove me wrong, Ryan Day, I dare you...

Joseph said...

Somewhere I seem to be missing something. We have no talent at the skill positions. Our o-line is slow and clumsy. We have no team speed. We have only one receiver. We have 1 running back. But, still we should have a game plan that makes us a winner against teams that that have speed, talent and experience.

So, design us a play or series, that uses the bad o-line, and always passes to the only decent receiver or hands off to our only RB. I suppose that we could really fool them and pass to the guys that can't get open and run our shifty QB on sneaks behind an o-line that can't get out of it's own way.

One year ago Spaz was in the final year of his destruction. For God's sake show some brains and understand that it will take a few years. A very clever game plan can't overcome, lack of talent, experience,speed and depth. It will get better. I Day is still around in three years and the recruits still are lined up and we still lose, THEN scream for his head. Not now.

eagle1331 said...

Joseph -

Where in there did I scream for his head? I don't like the man, I'll admit it, but I didn't say he should be fired.

Question, before I play on your jump to conclusions mat... did you watch all of the USC game? I obviously understand if you didn't, given the Pac10 network, but if you did, I'm not sure how you can support his play calling thus far.

Joseph said...

No, you did not scream for his head, but I think that you might like it if he were fired, Notice, I said might.

Didn't see the game,Listened to it all. Saw lots of highlights. It sure was not pretty, but with our talent level, speed, quickness, depth and experience, I can't imagine what might have made a gnats eyelash of difference. We are at least two and probably three years away from the point that play calling will make a big difference. using your talent effectively is the sign of a good plan. Notice I said "talent" No talent makes it hard to have a workable plan that wins games against FSU and Clemson and USC..

eagle1331 said...

I won't mince words. I don't like him. I didn't like the hire. I think he is incredibly overrated and has proven nothing in all of his stops. That being said, I am not calling for his head as he does deserve to create more of a sample size before jumping off that bridge. When I argue football, I like to be logical - to fire him now would be far from that.

That being said, I do think his track record elsewhere and the boring play calling at BC thus far, no matter what our talent level is, has shown a complete lack of creativity and ability to adapt - something Don Brown has shown an ability to do with the same talents, generally speaking. His "football genealogy" is from the most explosive, creative line of our time... even at UNH! You can't say our talent isn't better than that.

Also, I don't buy the talent level excuse. He was actually around when some of these kids were recruited, I believe. Not only should a good coach be able to adapt, but that really is not what I'm knocking him for. I'm "hating on" his play calling.

I watched the entire game, but since you didn't, just look at the stats. When you're down by 2, 3, 4 touchdowns.. a balanced office is not the best game plan, yet we ran the ball more than passed. We averaged less than 4 yards on rushing and passing plays. That shows running wasn't working and the deep ball was non-existent. If you don't throw deep, they're going to stack the box more, further hurting the run. I honestly don't remember us throwing greater than 10 yards more then 3 or 4 times. But what really got me is that the play calling was the same at 0-0 as it was at 14-0 at it was at 35-7... that is just awful, and that is why I wrote what I did.

Joseph said...

and our slow inept o-line would give our no-talent receivers plenty of time to get clear for the long ball.
Logical or emotional?