Thursday, October 10, 2013

BC-Clemson preview

Prior to the season, most identified the first half of the schedule as daunting. 3-2 was somewhat expected and predictably we are heavy underdogs against Clemson. Now that the game is here, I have a little hope. The Florida State game and USC games exposed BC's issues, but they didn't do anything to kill my belief that we can compete during the second half of the schedule. And I don't think the Clemson game is going to change that confidence in the team or the fanbase. It is a bit like playing with house money. If we lose big to the Tigers, it is not big deal since we were underdogs. If we hang with them but lose, it is a moral victory (acceptable only in 2013) and if we win, it is a huge statement game for Addazio and the team.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)For years I've been saying that if the Notre Dame series goes away, that the Clemson game should become the student road trip. The Notre Dame series didn't go away totally, but it seems like I wasn't the only one preaching about a Clemson trip. There are student RVs heading down to South Carolina this weekend. I don't know if the game will be great, but the tailgating and trip should be fun. Of course this will be the first BC game at Clemson that I will not see in person (dad stuff) and I will miss it. Current and future students: make the trip to Clemson if you can. You won't regret it.

Three Simple Keys
1. Get good field positioning on Special Teams. Our Special Teams have been much improved the past two weeks. We need to keep it up. If Willis and Evans can help flip the field, we may be able to hang in a shootout.
2. Get Williams involved in the passing game. This will help break tendency. The whole stadium is expecting him to run it. So use him on swing passes or delayed wheel routes.
3. Don't allow any big plays. Everyone's scored big plays on us. Villanova and Army included. I don't long for the bend but don't break days, but if we want to win, we have to cut down on the other team's explosive plays.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 5-6 on the road as a head coach
-- Swinney is 4-1 against the spread when facing BC
-- Swinney is 29-5 at home
The current line is BC+24.5

Even though Clemson has controlled this series lately, BC still holds the longer win streak between the two schools at four games (which included our first three matchups as ACC members).

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse at NC State is probably most relevant to BC fans. Both are future opponents and both have been inconsistent. Once we get out of this stretch our season will really be determined by how we perform against similar ACC teams. How they perform against each other might give us an idea what to expect.

I hope to see...
Amidon have a big game. Obviously that is a key to winning, but I think he personally needs a big day against an elite team if he wants to get drafted. There is always going to be a bias against his stats based on our record and our lack of other playmakers. If Amidon wants to become the first BC WR drafted in three decades, he needs to start showcasing his ability to get open and make plays against the best.

BC is in trouble if...
the Offensive Line cannot control the line of scrimmage. That was the biggest difference between the lopsided USC game and the respectable FSU game. If Clemson guys are blowing up or darting past our linemen, we won't score much.

Bottom Line
As much as I would love for Clemson to "pull a Clemson," I just don't see it happening. They're too tested at this point and there is too much film on us for them to be surprised. I think we try a similar grind it out approach like we used against USC. We'll be more effective moving the ball, but cannot keep pace with their explosive plays.
Final Score: Clemson 38, BC 20


mod34b said...

Clemson, Clemson, Clemson . . . .

As I watched Army rip through our defense last game, I thought 'Clemson, Clemson, Clemson.' And that crushing of the BC defesne was from a running game. Sammy Watkins and friends were not running uncoverable routes getting perfect passes from T. Boyd.

So, we have two very recent rough comparables to BC v Clemson. Clemson pounded Wake 56-7 and gained 573 yards. Clemson pounded Syr 49-14 and gained 624 yards.

We are next and should fare slightly better than those two.

Clemson will put up at least 40 points and gain 600 yards.

Yet, Syracuse was able to run for 323 yards. Maybe BC can "Ground and pound" to get a few points and eat up clock to keep Clemson off the field. Our offense will be our best defense. (very Spaz thinking here)

Prediction: Clemson 42 - BC 20

Ry said...

spotted on campus today:

GDF in full athletic department workout attire along with two others wearing similar outfits headed for a reservoir walk right around lunchtime. How does Bates let that slime onto campus?

eagleboston said...


How did you let him on campus?

Ry said...

Good question....I am still upset with myself.

JBQ said...

GDF is gone. Let him be gone. He served his time with some say well and some say not well. Let's move on and stop assassinating the past.

Ry said...

except he's not gone at all.

CT said...

I hope I'm wrong, but below average teams usually fare very poorly on the road against any team. Against Clemson...yikes. Covering the spread vs FSU (and giving up 48) came at home. I'd be impressed if we covered Saturday. Clemson has bigger fish to week...but I think Boyd won't let them slip up Saturday. Then again, I've always thought players get themselves up for big games, it's up to the coaches to get them up for the smaller ones.