Thursday, November 06, 2014

BC-Louisville preview

Now we are playing with house money. We are going bowling and have exceeded most people's expectations. But I don't want to stop. I don't think Addazio is content to stop either. With that in mind, BC needs to come out fired up Saturday night. This isn't a must win, but a win would be one more big boost to the program.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
In one of my spitballing posts years ago I thought BC might have been a good landing spot for Bobby Petrino after his Arkansas fiasco. I knew then that it would never happen, but I still don't know if we should ever write off any coach (in any sport) due to baggage. All hires have their issues. The nice thing about people with baggage, is that most of us know the issues up front. If you can manage around them and the coach is willing to adapt to BC, it can work.

Three Simple Keys
1. Don't abandon the power runs. With Hilliman dinged up, BC might try to do more on the edges or even pass. That's a mistake. The OL handles the power stuff well. It also sucks in the defense and creates other things. Let Willis and Outlow run between the tackles if necessary.
2. Bring more pressure than ever. In both their road losses (UVA and Clemson) Louisville's QBs were flustered and sacked. That's how you slow them down. BC cannot ease off or play back.
3. A big game from Keyes. It feels like feast or famine with him. We need a big game and no missed tackles and no bad penalties.

Gambling Notes
-- Petrino is 29-21 all-time on the road
-- Addazio is 2-3 as a home underdog while at BC
-- Addazio is 7-6 in ACC games
The current line is BC+3

BC and Louisville played three times when both were independent. The teams played twice when Louisville was an independent and BC was part of the Big East. During the last matchup, Louisville was a member of Conference USA and BC was still in the Big East. This is the first game when both are in the same conference.

Scoreboard Watching
There is not one game that has huge consequences for BC. However, three of the ranked ACC teams (Clemson, Georgia Tech and Duke) all have conference games. From a ACC respectability standpoint, it would be best if none of them trip up this weekend.

I hope to see...
The defense dominate the 4th quarter. Do the other teams adjust to our blitz? Are our guys tired? Is it the offenses fault? It doesn't really matter. Too often the opponent is able to move the ball late and make these last few wins tight. I don't want that to happen this week.

BC is in trouble if...
Murphy is really hurt. After the limp at Lane, many commented and noted that he's been gimpy in the past and always managed to recover. I hope so. I hope I am just reading too much into it. If he cannot move well, BC will have trouble moving the ball.

Bottom Line
I am not comparing our talent to Florida State, but the Louisville-Florida State game was telling to me as the late 'Noles scores came on the ground. I think we will do the same thing. Like last week, Day needs to remain patient and the big plays will come. It will be a back and forth game, but a few long TD runs in the 4th seal it for BC.
Final Score: BC 28, Louisville 24


MUD said...

Let's go Eagles! Stomp those Cardinals, welcome them to East Coast ball. Get the ball in Sherm's hands. Harlem Stand Up. Happy Birthday to frequent poster, MIZ! 28 years of BC Fandom, born into it.

Hoib said...

Happy birthday El MIZ

I commented prior to Tech game that I liked our chances due our strength matching up against their weakness.

This week is different. Louisville has the #3 rush defense in the country. So this week it's strength on strength. This will really be a test for our young Eagles. Let's hope the Cardinals have a let down after their big game w/ FSU.

CT said...

Louisville's stats are a product of their schedule.

The only thing that matters as a fan of God's favorite football school is that The Dark Angel must not be allowed to conquer Good.

Hide your daughters and motorcycles, loyalty's Number One enemy has come.

eagle1331 said...

One of Louisville's starting LBs is out for the game...

Claver2010 said...

"Are our guys tired?"

Team is so thin the starting RB is on kickoff coverage and nearly the entire secondary is on the punt teams.

BCFBfan said...

One thing I'd like to see us get back to doing on offense is converting on 3rd down. Over our last 3 games we are 7-36 in 3rd down conversion. That is .194% conversion rate. That is well below our season average of .342% which is ranked 105 on offense nationally.

Compare that to the defense (which everyone likes to talk about) and they are 21-54 on 3rd down defense. That is .388%. Pretty much in line with their season average of .376%. Which is 48th nationally in 3rd down conversion defense.

We need this to improve in this area to give use a chance against Ville. I believe in Ryan Day, Steve Addazio, the entire coaching staff and most importantly the players. Hopefully, we can reverse this trend. And find a way against a great opponent. BC 28 - Ville 24. Go Eagles!

BCFBfan said...

Just noticed my final prediction was already taken. Howell has a great game. BC 31 - Ville 27.

mod34b said...

On paper, BC and L'v and pretty similar. We have had 3 common ACC opponents and had very similar results: Clemson (BC 13-17)(L'v 17-23); Wake (BC 23 -17)(L'v 20 -10); NCSU (BC 30-14)(L'v 30-18).

Total offense for each common opponent is about the same. L'v's defense is comparatively better.

But, leaving the stats aside, I was very impressed with L'v pass offense against FSU. I know FSU's defense is not a top D, but L'v was able to pass for 330 yards.

How good is BC's pass defense? Better than last year, yes! But this to me is the key: can we hold L'v to lower passing numbers, and keep them to maybe 20points?

BC 30 - L'v 20 (knocks on wood, throws salt over shoulder)

BCFBfan said...

Thought you guys might like this article posted on SB Nation by Louisville previewing our upcoming game.

It's a pretty accurate and well written article. Needless to say they believe they are superior athletically and to be honest, I don't disagree. But, I just have a strong feeling we are going to play a great TEAM game and find a way to get another big win at home. We need to play complementary football and click in all 3 phases (Offense, Defense and Special Teams). Looking forward to Saturday night.

JBQ said...

It was announced today that Louisville linebacker Lorenzo Mauldin is out for the game. He was hurt (hamstring) against NC St. and played against Florida St. He is a "beast" and led the team in sacks as a linebacker. This is significant in the chances for BC to win. I hope that he gets well soon enough to play against Notre Dame. I am also glad that BC does not have to face his talented play.