Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Year 3 is the great indicator

Expectations will be low next year for BC. We have another new QB. We will be replacing most of our Oline and our playmakers will still be very young. Regardless of the obstacles and challenges, Year 3 will tell us a lot about Addazio's potential and ceiling. As Grantland's Matt Hinton has written many times, the good coaches win early, even when they take over troubled programs (this article covers it well -- skip past the Spurrier stuff to about halfway through the article). I know the counter arguments: "every situation is different" , "Spaz left the cupboard bare", "rebuilds take longer at BC." There is some validity to all of that. Yet historically, even at BC, Year 3 has been a great indicator of a coach's potential and tenure. Take a look all Year 3s of the modern era:

Joe Yukica, Year 3:   8-2
Ed Chlebek, Year 3:   7-4
Jack Bicknell, Year 3:   9-3
Tom Coughlin, Year 3:   9-3
Dan Henning, Year 3:   5-7
Tom O'Brien, Year 3:   8-4
Frank Spaziani, Year 3:   4-8

Context is everything and we have nine months to analyze what Addazio faces in Year 3. I hope he exceeds expectations again. Because if he doesn't it doesn't speak well to the future.


19 comments:

GP11 said...

The bowl game was our season in a nutshell. Inability to get stops when it counts most and our kicking issues leaving points on the board with both missed kicks and forced 4th down attempts from outside the 20. The kicking is easily solvable... the defense perhaps not. The third down conversions are brutal, especially when they are 8+ yards out. Dan Brown was on the hot seat at the beginning of the year but our late season run helped contain the talk. Maybe we don't have the right players yet for Brown's scheme, but it cost us 3 games this year at least. If there is a strong candidate available, I wouldn't mind seeing Daz pull the trigger on it. Brown shouldn't get let off the hook.

Hoib said...

Ed Chlebek, Year 3: 7-4 his best year. He was an awful coach. Spaz was good by comparison.

BarraCuda said...

Frankly, Bicknell was not a good coach either. He had one good season out of six post-Flutie.

mod34b said...

it is unfortunate that Daz used his post-bowl press conference to play politician and lower expectations. It is the wormiest behavior I've yet seen from Mr. Direct.

He should be talking about building on success. not setting up excuses that he really needs 5 years to rebuild.

Daz, we expect you to produce a wining season next year. Yes, you did great work reforming the team so far. Thanks to you there is much better team sprit and toughness.

But the coaching is lacking in certain big areas. We expect better.

Let's start with the kicking fiasco. you should have fixed that.

Second, the Brownie version of Spaz's bend-don't-break and play not to lose is on you too. That cost us Pitt, PSU and CSU games

Third, take the handcuffs of Day.

Fourth: execution on offense is lacking. should not be so many drops in game 13. On you Daz

with better coaching, 7-8 win in 2015 is possible

Easy wins: New Mexico St, Maine, N. Ill. ,Wake, Syracuse

Should win: NC State, VT

Toss up: Duke, ND

Tough; FSU, Clemson, Louisville

Be a Dude, Daz, not a weasel

JBQ said...

I agree with the previous. I watched ND beat LSU. Zaire will run over and through BC like "Little Red Riding Hood" on the way to grandmother's house. With Marlon Brando, BC "coulda bin a contender". Instead, poor coaching killed a potentially breakthrough season. Next year will be just more of the same mediocrity. Both coordinators have to go. The special teams coach should be shipped to Siberia. Addazio has the enthusiasm which is already dying in its contagion due to the mediocre Penn St. fiasco. As things look now, you can take it to the bank that there will be another Lou Holtz disrespect at Fenway of something like 54-7. BC is in deep trouble. There are holes springing up in the dike all over the place. The present level of talent is terrible. The entire offensive line was made up of graduate students. There is nothing in the cupboard. It was a big mistake to give Addazio an extension. He should have earned it with a good performance in season 3. Now, you have to know that he is "ready to jump ship".

Matt said...

I'm going to have to disagree with you here. Year 3 is important but doesn't define Addazio's ceiling.

That being said I think it will be telling. I consider 8+ wins (including bowl win) would be a success. We played good teams tough, which makes me optimistic.

eagleboston said...

The lack of college football knowledge on this blog never ceases to amaze me. Year 3 is no more meaningful than year 1 or year 4. BC is not a major college football program that can recover from a 2-10 season quickly. 1) We can't command the top coaches in the profession such as Jim Harbaugh. No one at that level is ever going to come coach at BC. 2) Because recruiting is so critical in college football, BC can't recover as fast as other programs. A Texas or a Michigan can get top talent immediately because of their tradition and the prominence of college football in their states. At BC, college football is barely a blip and the fan-base is really small. It takes much, much more effort to land great recruits. And it takes time. You don't turn around a 2-10 team at BC in just 2 years. It takes 4-5. Keep in mind, Addazio's first full recruiting class will only be sophomores next season.

College football experts will tell you it all starts up front. BC is replacing the ENTIRE offensive line. And they have to break in a new quarterback. If none of the qbs on the roster could beat out Murphy, that is a huge concern. They probably are not that good.

The only hope for another 7 win season is for BC to land some 5th year players for the line and perhaps pull out some magic with a 5th year qb that has eligibility (hopefully, a much better passer than Murphy).

We may only win 5 games next season. But, the entire Addazio era should not be judged on that. Give him time. Here's a stat for you. Frank Beamer went 2-8-1 in his SIXTH season at Va Tech. All he has done since is take them to 22 straight bowl games. Patience, my friends. Patience.

Hoib said...

EB

I agree w/ much of what you say, but w/ Murphy you are way off the mark. The guy was the MVP on a team that went to a bowl game. You are too one dimensional in your thinking. I also think you should get used to this style of QB , I think Murphy is the prototype for Daz ball.

mod10aeagle said...

Murphy ran for 1200 yards and completed 57% of his passes on a team without a notable receiver. The idea that the kids just out of high school who couldn't beat him out for the starting job must not be very good is moronic.

Thomas said...

Re: Transferring players... Braxton Miller would look great in maroon and gold and is reportedly looking to transfer(albeit with FSU at or near the top of the list).

Big Jack Krack said...

I think Year 4 will be more telling than Year 3.

Go BC.

CT said...

The 9:57 post contradicts itself.

It's precisely because BC isn't a football factory that year 3 is more important than year 1.

No offense. But the first sentence of that comment is one of the more ironic things I've read.

Walter said...

So this isn't apropos of the preceding discussion, but didn't want to keep this nugget to myself.

To contextualize just how bad BC's extra point game was this year: Only three Division 1 teams in the last seven years had a worse percentage of PAT completion.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2008/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category08/sort01.html

mod34b said...

[psst. 12:16: i agree with you about 9:57. shhhhh .... -- 4:44]

Walter. good nugget. actually, it appears that in the last 7 years only one FBS team (2010 South Miss) missed more than 8 PATS.

in other words the PAT fiasco is BAD and should never have happened.

Big question is what didn't Daz, or Day fix this?

Good news, BC was, surprisingly, not the worst FG% in ACC or NCAA. But had we tried more FGs instead of 'going for it 'on 4th down, I am sure we would be near the bottom of the FG% list.

CT said...

Psst....that makes my day.

EL MIZ said...

34B - take a breath with your Ryan Day vendetta. why in the world would he address the extra point situation? he's not the special teams coach. it definitely falls on Addazio - once it became a recurring issue it should have been addressed and fixed. have an open try out - there has to be a student who can kick extra points.

excited to see who emerges from the QB competition - Darius Wade was a storied high school QB, Flutie obviously shattered a bunch of MA records, and Jeff Smith from FL was apparently one of the better QBs in the state of FL this year. Murphy was an excellent runner (broke the ACC QB rushing record, but lets fire Day LOL) but one-dimensional and in my opinion left even more yards on the field in his running of the option. even if the floor will be lower with one of the new QBs, i think the ceiling will be higher.

mod34b said...

El MIz....you should go back to hoops posts.... this is obviously not your area.

The offense score points through a variety of means, such as FGs and PATs. The Offensive Coordinator is concerned with scoring points and the strategy of scoring points, which includes the kicking game. The OC, simply put, coordinates the scoring efforts.

Who do you think calls the plays? who decides to kick a FG or "go for it"? Who decides to go for a 1 point or 2 point conversion? Mr Day does. Mr Day should have been very interested in correcting BC's kicking game.

Are you, perhaps, employed by Day?

I would be delighted to see Day become a D-III coach.....

but i will say that the lack of imagination we see from Day in all too many games (mind you, not all games) might not be just Dull Ryan at work. the big paw of Daz might be making Day make stupid play calls.

shall we move on to Brownie?

Hoib said...

EL MIZ

Do you believe that Mod doesn't even know what an OC does! Too funny!

mod34b said...

Hoib, you silly old goat. Didn't you say good bye last week?