Thursday, November 05, 2015

BC-NC State preview

Outside of the dark days of the Spaz era, I always pick BC to win. It is not a gimmick. I genuinely talk myself into the idea that we can win if a few things happen. Last week I didn't really feel it. This week, I am back believing! The Fadule showing gave me a boost of confidence. I don't think he is the savior. I don't even know if he will be our only QB this week (Smith is practicing again). But I saw enough movement from the Offense to believe that we can beat this mediocre NC State team.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I think this is Dave Doeren's last season at NC State. Based on what I learned when he was a candidate for the BC job, I think the guy is fairly ambitious and looking for his next spot. He didn't get the Wisconsin job last year but now there are so many openings, I could see him jumping at a Big Ten job (Minnesota?) Maybe Illinois. While his work in Raleigh has not been overly impressive, he can sell it as rebuilding and heading in the right direction. Plus what other Power 5 coaches are lining up for a lower level Big Ten job? As for why he would leave NC State...I think that is one of those jobs that is not all it is cracked up to be. Just look at what TOB found out. It is not easy to win there. You are stuck in a division with Clemson and Florida State and have second fiddle status in the state to UNC. Could someone make it work? Sure, but I don't think Doeren is that sort of guy. The Big Ten schools could offer more money, more short-term stability and a chance to return to the Midwest. As for what this means for BC, I think coaching turnover in the conference is very good for us. It shifts the balance, hurts a recruiting cycle or two and more than one of these schools will make a bad hire. Right now Miami and Virginia Tech are looking. Virginia is probably close behind. Add in one or two leaving for different jobs and you have a nice shakeup that can hopefully benefit out team.

Three Simple Keys
1.  Rush for 200 yards. I don't care if it is with Smith or Fadule. It doesn't really matter. Someone has to open up something and the running backs have to make plays too. We are not beating anyone through the air. If we rush for 200 yards, we win this game easily.
2. Get a big passing TD. Even the threat of running opened up some passing last week. Now we need one of those passes to break for a TD.  
3. Sack Brissett five times. Like the 200 yard mark, this might seem like an arbirtary number, but I think that many sacks would kill enough drives to keep their score low.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 2-0 vs Doeren
-- Doeren is 6-7 on the road as NC State's coach
-- Addazio is 7-8 after a loss while at BC
The current line is BC+4

NC State has yet to win at Alumni in an ACC game.

Scoreboard Watching
I am keeping hope alive that we run the table and get bowl eligible at 6-6 (with an exemption). But to get that exemption there needs to be multiple seven loss ACC teams that cannot jump us. Wake and Georgia Tech are off this week, so we have to hope Syracuse gets one step closer to seven by losing to Louisville.

I hope to see...
Gowins get a big play. His first fumble was not his fault. Last week was. I would hate to see his season come down to that. Let's hope he gets more playing time, holds onto the ball and makes a big contribution.

BC is in trouble if...
Neither QB gets in a rhythm. One of my biggest problems with QB rotations (going back to the TOB days) is that it too often wastes possessions. And those wasted possessions are killers in low scoring games. Yanking guys in and out is rarely productive. I hope one guy looks good and one looks terrible just so Addazio can stop wasting time.

I think we move the ball this week. Whoever turns out to be QB gets the read option going with some power runs behind Baker and we eat clock and score points. That puts NC State in catch up mode and they never get enough TDs to match us.
Final Score: BC 21, NC State 13


Teej said...

will you also pick us to beat ND? Love the enthusiasm, but 21 points!

Sal said...

Do I think BC has a shot at beating NC State? Sure do. Them and Syracuse we can beat. However, do I think we're going to score over 20 points in any game the rest of the way? Absolutely not. 13-7, Eagles. Missed XP.

campy said...

Bad guys win, 17–10

mod34b said...

BC stats post VT against FBS competition, out of 128 teams

The D is still "statistically" excellent

The Offense is Historically Bad. There has never been a worse offense at BC. There probably has never been a worse offense in the ACC.

Scoring O: Dead last
Avg. yards per play: Dead last
Total First Downs gained: Dead last
RedZone success: Second worst
Total O : Dead last
3rd down conversion - dead last
FGs: 124/128
Yards per Rush 119/128
Rushing O - 100/128 (down 10 spots! )
Passing O - 124/128 +1 Go FAN DUEL!!!!
Tackles per Loss allowed: BC is 124/128
Plays from scrimmage over 10 yards : Second to last
Total offensive plays: BC is 116/128

Anyone up for blaming Dumb and Dumber (Daz and Fitch)? I am

dixieagle said...

I love your enthusiasm, but I just don't see us scoring enough to beat NC State or ND (Syracuse, maybe.) They can score, too, putting up 41 against Clemson. Fadule provided a spark, but it's all relative.

I hope you're right.

NC State 21 - BC 10

CT said...

Wonder if even you get tired of saying the same thing over and over?


Ok, feeling fairly optimistic about this week. Had us losing 20-10 to VT, but can see a reversal here. I like VT's defensive talent. Not so high on NCSU.

And not to look ahead but unless ND's bus crashes...there is a bosonic chance of an upset there. But first things first.

mod34b said...
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Danny Boy said...

I agree with ATL. I can see a pathway to victory most weeks, and this one is no different.

I'm not sure that Fadule is the savior of the season, but the play calling that was employed during his successful drives certainly is. Screen passes, quick slants and short seam routes open up the running lanes (like we've all been saying all year). I want Daz to stick with a single QB.

We're trying a new holder this week. Maybe having a kicker as the holder will help some things (this is a first in Daz's tenure as far as I'm aware). We need every point we can get, and the special teams need to start doing us some favors. I'd even like to see Walker back on punt returns. The kid is explosive.

Big Jack Krack said...

When was the last time BC started a Walk-on QB?

Good luck, all.

Go BC.

Knucklehead said...

23- 21 Eagles. Kicker wins the game.

mod34b said...
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mod34b said...

BC 6