Outside of the dark days of the Spaz era, I always pick BC to win. It is not a gimmick. I genuinely talk myself into the idea that we can win if a few things happen. Last week I didn't really feel it. This week, I am back believing! The Fadule showing gave me a boost of confidence. I don't think he is the savior. I don't even know if he will be our only QB this week (Smith is practicing again). But I saw enough movement from the Offense to believe that we can beat this mediocre NC State team.
What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I think this is Dave Doeren's last season at NC State. Based on what I learned when he was a candidate for the BC job, I think the guy is fairly ambitious and looking for his next spot. He didn't get the Wisconsin job last year but now there are so many openings, I could see him jumping at a Big Ten job (Minnesota?) Maybe Illinois. While his work in Raleigh has not been overly impressive, he can sell it as rebuilding and heading in the right direction. Plus what other Power 5 coaches are lining up for a lower level Big Ten job? As for why he would leave NC State...I think that is one of those jobs that is not all it is cracked up to be. Just look at what TOB found out. It is not easy to win there. You are stuck in a division with Clemson and Florida State and have second fiddle status in the state to UNC. Could someone make it work? Sure, but I don't think Doeren is that sort of guy. The Big Ten schools could offer more money, more short-term stability and a chance to return to the Midwest. As for what this means for BC, I think coaching turnover in the conference is very good for us. It shifts the balance, hurts a recruiting cycle or two and more than one of these schools will make a bad hire. Right now Miami and Virginia Tech are looking. Virginia is probably close behind. Add in one or two leaving for different jobs and you have a nice shakeup that can hopefully benefit out team.
Three Simple Keys
1. Rush for 200 yards. I don't care if it is with Smith or Fadule. It doesn't really matter. Someone has to open up something and the running backs have to make plays too. We are not beating anyone through the air. If we rush for 200 yards, we win this game easily.
2. Get a big passing TD. Even the threat of running opened up some passing last week. Now we need one of those passes to break for a TD.
3. Sack Brissett five times. Like the 200 yard mark, this might seem like an arbirtary number, but I think that many sacks would kill enough drives to keep their score low.
-- Addazio is 2-0 vs Doeren
-- Doeren is 6-7 on the road as NC State's coach
-- Addazio is 7-8 after a loss while at BC
The current line is BC+4
NC State has yet to win at Alumni in an ACC game.
I am keeping hope alive that we run the table and get bowl eligible at 6-6 (with an exemption). But to get that exemption there needs to be multiple seven loss ACC teams that cannot jump us. Wake and Georgia Tech are off this week, so we have to hope Syracuse gets one step closer to seven by losing to Louisville.
I hope to see...
Gowins get a big play. His first fumble was not his fault. Last week was. I would hate to see his season come down to that. Let's hope he gets more playing time, holds onto the ball and makes a big contribution.
BC is in trouble if...
Neither QB gets in a rhythm. One of my biggest problems with QB rotations (going back to the TOB days) is that it too often wastes possessions. And those wasted possessions are killers in low scoring games. Yanking guys in and out is rarely productive. I hope one guy looks good and one looks terrible just so Addazio can stop wasting time.
I think we move the ball this week. Whoever turns out to be QB gets the read option going with some power runs behind Baker and we eat clock and score points. That puts NC State in catch up mode and they never get enough TDs to match us.
Final Score: BC 21, NC State 13