Monday, May 23, 2016

Flutie DUI and other links

Natick Police arrested and charged BC WR Troy Flutie with DUI. Based on the report, it doesn't appear that anyone was hurt. While this is serious for Flutie, now that he is not part of the QB rotation, it is less of a big deal for BC Football. What will be interesting is to see how Addazio punishes Troy. My guess is he will miss the season opener in Ireland.

According to Jeff Goodman, Matt Milon is headed to William & Mary. Like all basketball transfers, I am trying not to overreact and hope that Christian's plans for replacing Milon's productivity work.

Villanova did not see a Flutie effect from winning the NCAA Tournament.

34 comments:

eagleboston said...

Sad about Trioy. I know I didn't always make the best choices when I was at BC, but I was never in the public eye. Hopefully, he recognizes the gravity of the situation and never makes that mistake again.

mod34b said...

I've got 2 Flutie comments: That's reality and that's not reality

As for the Flutie, Troy, a youthful error in judgment. Shit happens. No harm/no foul.

As for the Flutie Effect - it is an urban myth and completely unsupported by numerous factual studies. It does get repeated ad nauseam by a sports press at every possible opportunity, but it is not real.

CT said...

The 2013 Harvard study says it is real.

Anyway, not debating this because I don't care one way or the other, but I cannot in any way understand how in this country athletic success doesn't contribute to brand awareness. Esp with TV contracts as such. In 84, there were hugely fewer TV options. That's why, I think, sustained success is so important. Pretty easy to be a permanent player on ESPN 3.

dixieagle said...

Sad about Troy. Thank God no one was apparently hurt.

Also disagree about the Flutie effect. Not just a Harvard study: http://www.seattlepi.com/sports/article/Flutie-Effect-is-real-study-shows-1268039.php

mod34b said...

Flutie effect not true for BC

Bill McDonald, director of communications at Boston College’s Lynch School of Education determined that “Applications to BC did surge 16 percent in 1984 (from 12,414 to 14,398), and then another 12 percent (to 16,163) in 1985. But these jumps were not anomalous for BC, which in the previous decade had embarked on a program to build national enrollment using market research, a network of alumni volunteers, strategically allocated financial aid, and improvements to residence halls and academic facilities.” He also observed that “in 1997, one year after revelations about gambling resulted in a coach’s resignation, 13 student-athlete suspensions, an investigation by the NCAA, and hundreds of embarrassing media reports, applications for admission came in at 16,455, virtually unchanged from the previous year. Two years later, when applications jumped by a record 17 percent to 19,746, the surge followed a 4-7 year for football.” Going further back in history, he reported that applications had increased 9 percent in 1978, a year when BC football had its worst year ever, with a 0-11 record.

Guido said...

Incredible research - Mod34B - but tell me how big Lindstrom is NOW CURRENTLY and THE THREE HEAVIEST INTERIOR LINEMAN (CURRENTLY) and I will be impressed. No one seems to know these facts !!!! YOU ARE "THE MAN FOR ALL AGES" if you can come up with this accurate information. I will buy you an ADDAZIO TEE SHIRT (Autographed ) !!!!! Thanks in advance !!!!

SaturdaysOnShea said...

The Flutie Effect is real, but fails to recognize the overall efforts of Father Monan to raise the national profile of the school. His work, coupled with the Flutie years, was a perfect storm for giving BC national recognition.

George Voegele said...

Re: the "Flutie effect" for Villanova: I'd argue they too had their Flutie effect after the '85 Championship. So this would be their second one, and it's too early to determine whether there will be another "Flutie effect" for Villanova this time around. One of the main components is an increase in applications, with the idea being that the increase leads to "better" students being admitted. And that can't manifest itself until the Fall, which will be the first application season after the championship. Also, Villanova says they made "a few hundred fewer offers" this Spring in anticipation of a higher yield. And they still got their full class. So it's already had some effect. Let's see how many more applications they get this Fall before determining the effects.

mod34b said...

Guido HERE is your ANSWER

mod34b said...

"In 2008, Rutgers University professor Randall Smith determined that “breakthrough seasons” in athletics sometimes produce small academic bumps, but not reliably or sustainably. That same year, Jaren and Devin Pope compared application and enrollment rates at 330 NCAA Division I schools between 1983 and 2002, and found that significant athletic victories increase applicants by 2-8 percent on average, depending on the sport and level of success. Harvard’s Doug Chung fanned the flame with a 2013 study reporting that when a university’s football team goes from mediocre to excellent, applications typically increase by 18 percent. Students with ­­­lower-than-average SAT scores place more importance on a school’s athletic success, he found, but victories also encourage applicants with higher SAT scores enough to raise the overall quality of the pool.

None of this, however, is easy to engineer. The NCAA commissioned two studies that determined there is no correlation between spending more on athletics and winning more. Nor does increasing coaches’ salaries demonstrably affect on-field success or yield increased revenue."

link to article

also a BC 2002 article debunking the myth.

I also read the Harvard article. It is very misleading, and is often cited for the wrong proposition by last sports 'journalists'. The author concludes there is a 18.6% increase in applications when a school goes from mediocre to very good (p.25 The Dynamics of Advertising effect of Collegiate Athletics; Working paper January 25, 2013). He defines mediocre as having two 4 wins seasons before having a 10 win season. That does not apply to BC, 1982 8-3-1; 1983 9-3; 1984 10-2. BC was not mediocre before the big Flutie Season. BC was very good. So this article by Chung is a lot of nonsense.

I think because Flutie is famous, the words 'Flutie Effect' are alliterative and fun to say, and sports 'journalists' are not journalists at all, but knuckleheads (no offense to our knucklehead) and people just want to believe nonsense, the myth continues

mod34b said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mod34b said...

not 'last" but "lazy sports journalists"

JBQ said...

Since Addazio resents the Flutie family legacy, he would recommend the death penalty not for Troy but for Doug.

dixieagle said...

SaturdaysonShea - Agree; Fr. Monan was an absolute gift for BC, a Godsend after Fr. Joyce, who was (an historically awful) President when I arrived on campus in '70. "Perfect storm" is exactly right.

CT said...

It's certainly debatable. There is no debate about that. Unless our resident Pol Pot decrees otherwise.

mod34b said...

comparing any one on a blog to PolPot is odious and disgusting.

Do you even know who PolPot was?

Will you be sharing some Hitler, Mao, Manson, Bundy, Castro and Stalin jokes next?

Guido said...

Mod34 - thanks for the info , but it can not be close to accurate. Chris Lindstrom is still listed at 260lbs (his weight upon arriving at the Heights) and others from last year have added no lbs. If Lindstrom is still 260 ,then he can not be on the Offensive Line. But I know that it can not be accurate.

On another topic , Troy Flutie gets arrested for DUI and the news is everywhere and his photograph is FULL SCREEN on Channel 7. What a joke - he is 19 yrs. old and made an error in judgement and thank GOD , no one got hurt. BC plays Clemson etc and almost no word is uttered by the press. VERY SAD COMMENTARY ON OUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS as it relates to Boston College !!!!!!!

mod34b said...

guido, I've seen talk that lindstrom is now 290 . .. but never saw that in print. I guess u have seen the same tidbit


poor young flutie -- nasty press. remember when the globe trashed BC hockey player freshman as being drunk in a car/T accident.. and it was all wrong. BC bashing is a favorite sport..

Tim said...

The "Flutie Effect" is mostly myth. Applications to BC were actually lower in 1991 (11,516) than they were in 1981 (12,748). There was a small, temporary surge in applications from 1983 to 1985, but then they tapered off.

The real permanent surge in applications to BC started around 1992. Judge for yourselves. Here is the complete list of historical application data from www.bc.edu/factbook:

1980 12,640
1981 12,748
1982 12,110
1983 12,414
1984 14,398
1985 16,163
1986 14,986
1987 15,593
1988 15,523
1989 13,526
1990 12,403
1991 11,516
1992 12,283
1993 13,112
1994 15,522
1995 16,680
1996 16,501
1997 16,455
1998 16,373
1999 19,746
2000 20,743
2001 19,059
2002 21,133
2003 22,424
2004 22,451
2005 23,823
2006 26,584
2007 28,850
2008 30,845
2009 29,290
2010 29,933
2011 32,974
2012 34,061
2013 24,538
2014 23,223
2015 29,486

NEDofSavinHill said...

The best effort in ESPN history was it's show Fantastic Lies regarding the Duke Lacrosse hoax. What a portrayal of vile prosecutors, cops and media. No one waited for the evidence. They just presumed guilt. Unless Flutie has privately admitted to Daz wrongdoing he should not have been punished. An arrest or charge is not a conviction. If Daz punished him based on only an arrest Daz should be suspended.

CT said...

The whole point is that one dramatic moment actually does increase apps for a bit. Sustained success, from 99 to 09, after the betting scandal and with TOB winning 8 or 9 consistently(beating ND), dramatically improves app numbers and selectivity.

Ppl don't apply based on libraries. You want to be a national brand? Go stage a philosophy debate or print your vitals in US News, it won't matter. Go on TV and win in the Fall-alums start giving. Cash that TV contract.

A myth? BC was parochial and important only to northeasterners when I got there in 92. Now, ppl in the Southeast actually know about the school, even as they laugh at the athletic program. May not be progress to some, but I'm quite certain the admissions dept sees the change. Football/basketball is Advertising. Simple.

Wrt to Pol Pot. Yes I know. And yes that Mod must have really sucked.

Knucklehead said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Knucklehead said...

It is the David Gordon, Billy Curley effect. Look at jump in quantity between 92, 93 and 94. The win at ND and win over UNC obviously had a bigger effect. Also, Cable tv was not a given in every house, espn had dead air after midnight in the 80's for god sake. There were no "instant classics." That all changed between 84 and 92. My point is not that Doug did not have as big an effect on BC as Gordon/Curley but Gordon/Curley were seen by more people and caused applications. Doug had a greater impact on alumni and students up to and before 84 as evidenced by the increased donation rates that Monan was able to achieve.

eagleboston said...

I'm living proof of the "Flutie effect". I never heard of BC until 1983 when I was watching the halftime show and they mentioned Flutie throwing for 300 yards (back then, there were very few highlights. They literally had a guy in a chair reading off the scores and stats that were flashed on a monitor behind him). Every week, they would read the scores and talk about this Flutie guy throwing for a ridiculous number of yards (this was also back in the "3 yards and a cloud of dust" and wishbone offense era. No one threw the ball back then). Then, in '84 someone from BC wandered over to my Catholic high school and dropped off a brochure. I applied in early '85 and was accepted to the class of '89 (if you look at the chart above, our class had the most applicants in the history of BC up to that time). I matriculated to BC site unseen (good thing I loved the campus). I made a ton of friends, traveled the East Coast and 3 years later, met my wife, BC 1990. I often wonder how different my life would be had I not watched the 1983 halftime show and learned about Doug Flutie from BC.

Tim said...

CT said: "Sustained success, from 99 to 09, after the betting scandal and with TOB winning 8 or 9 consistently(beating ND), dramatically improves app numbers and selectivity"

Knucklehead said: "It is the David Gordon, Billy Curley effect. Look at jump in quantity between 92, 93 and 94. The win at ND and win over UNC obviously had a bigger effect."

Guys,
The rise in applications at BC from 1992 onward was caused primarily by (1) BC starting to accept the Common Application, which made it easier for kids to apply to multiple schools at once; and (2) the rise of the Internet, which also made it easier for kids to apply to more schools. Along those same lines, look at the huge drop-off in applications between 2012 and 2013: it's because that's when BC added a new unique essay requirement for the specific purpose of lowering the number of kids who apply. The point is, these applications statistics are much more driven by how easy (or cumbersome) it is to apply to a certain school, as opposed to a school's athletics accomplishments. Sorry, guys, but 34,000 kids did not apply to BC in 2012 because of a basketball game against UNC that happened the year the were born or a string of 9-win football seasons that happened when they were in elementary/middle school.

mod34b said...

after reading some interesting points above, I wondered if one of the supposed rationales for BC joining the ACC - increasing it southern footprint - occurred.

It did not.

I looked that the BC factbook from 1983 and 2014. of course this is quick and dirty google-based research, so let me know if there is better info.

Here it is

State-1983Enrollees-2014Enrollees

FL-22-77
AL-2-2
MS-1-1
GA-12-15
LA-11-5
TN-3-6
SC-0-1
NC-1-12

West coast
CA-27-165
OR-1-7
WA-5-13
AZ-1-5

MA-988-472
NY-266-309
CT-196-165
NJ-172-199
Ill-27-63

mod34b said...

oops

GA-6-15

Tim said...

mod-
That's an interesting question. I found different information using the Geographic Distribution of Undergraduate Students (1976-2015) interactive map at http://www.bc.edu/publications/factbook/. I also used 2004 (the year before BC joined the ACC) as a baseline rather than 1983.

# of undergrad students, 2004/2015
Florida: 251/324
Georgia: 49/72
South Car.: 13/14
North Car. 42/56

Total: 355 in 2004, 466 in 2015, an increase of 31%

mod34b said...

Tim - I was looking at Freshmen. you map is for all undergrads

mod34b said...

rest of the south

# of undergrad students, 2004/2015
AL 12/7
MS 3/3
LA 21/14
TN 15/27

total 51/51

excluding FL (not really the south in my view), the total southern 2004/2015 is 155/193 -- an increase of 25%.. with Florida an increase in 27%.

Decent, but overall actual enrollment numbers seem pretty low. 10 people in all 4 years at BC form AL and MS??

Hoib said...

Hope you guys are all wrong about the various good play eras increasing enrollment. If your right the school will have to shut down pretty soon!

Knucklehead said...

Tim,
There was no internet in 1992. I applied in 1996 and there was no fucking internet.

CT said...

Internet in '92? Say what?

The rise in interest for BC in the South is, I think, mostly attributable to the mass migration of Northerners- carpet baggers-down here. The increase in Catholic elem/high schools here in the Atlanta area is pretty significant over the last 20 yrs or so. When I went to HS there were two Catholic high schools in the city.

But being in the ACC and on TV every week down here is substantively impactful wrt brand awareness. BC was hardly mentioned in this market, if ever, prior to 05. That has changed a bit even in light of the dismal athletic program.

Tim said...

"College application volume has been rapidly increasing.... As a growing number of colleges and universities adopt the Common Application, or otherwise transition to an online admissions process, it has never been easier to apply to a half dozen or more schools with the click of a mouse."

http://www.usnews.com/education/blogs/college-admissions-playbook/2015/09/09/what-rising-college-application-volume-means-for-the-class-of-2020

"the college-bound population has grown, and so, too, has the number of applications students file, thanks in part to online technology"

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/07/education/edlife/07HOOVER-t.html

CT / Knuckle,
Re-read my post. I said "rise" of the internet. I did not mean to suggest that someone flipped a switch in 1992, the internet went live, and applications to BC immediately soared. I was referring first to the use of the Common Application, and second to the GRADUAL "rise" of the internet in American life throughout the 1990's and into the 2000's. This led to an increase in applications to colleges everywhere, not just at BC. Don't take my word for it; this phenomenon has been well documented. The two articles liked above are just a couple examples.