Monday, September 05, 2016

Rehashing Addazio's decisions

I am going to try to let this go after this post, but I want to rebut Addazio's press conference logic. He said that attempting the field goal was the right call as was killing clock with six minutes. He also seems to put most of the blame on the D for allowing the 4 and 19 conversion. In my opinion, he's wrong on all counts.

Kicking vs going for it on 4th down

Prior to this season, Lichtenberg had only made 50% of his field goal attempts. His first attempt Saturday was blocked. It was drizzling and the field was slippery. Apply any logic you want, but given the kicker's history and the circumstances, it wasn't a high percentage play. However, in college football, 4th and 1 is (look at this or this). And who are the best conversion teams? Teams with strong running games and big OLines like Navy or Pitt or Stanford. And they tend to convert at a high percentage, or at least higher than Lichtenberg's career percentage. Addazio referenced the play as 4th and 2, not 4th and 1, but that still doesn't change the argument. The better play is going for it. And it has been studied to death by the analytics community, yet Addazio doesn't want to stray from his old school mentality.

Wanting the D on the field

Hoffses already picked this apart, but what is Addazio talking about when he says he wanted to get the ball back to Georgia Tech so his defense would be on the field? If your D is on the field, the other team's chance of scoring is high. You don't want them on the field scoring. You want to be on the field scoring. Forget statistics. That's just basic common sense. I think in an effort to defend how it played out, Addazio is twisting his argument. I don't really think he wanted to put it all on the Defense. I just think he trusted his D to do it.

4th and 19

I am actually not worked up about that play. It wasn't a strategic mistake. It was an execution issue. And I've watched a lot of Paul Johnson football over the years. Because you are so focused on the run, these sorts of plays happen (regardless of down and distance). It contributed to the loss, but it was out of Addazio's control. The other issues were all on him.

30 comments:

Unknown said...

Don't let it go. Keep taking him to task for that disaster.

Henry K said...

Talked to one of the "adults" associated with the team over the weekend, same party line, had nothing to do with decisions made, players didn't execute. So imagine playing for them.

Henry K said...

Talked to one of the "adults" associated with the team over the weekend, same party line, had nothing to do with decisions made, players didn't execute. So imagine playing for them.

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mod34b said...

If you look at CFBstats, you see the mean 4th down conversion rate in ACC is about 55%

Unsurprisingly, BC has been near the bottom for 4th down conversion under Daz (Spaz too). Daz at Temple in Big East was low too

I assume the Daz low percent is a function of his idiotic play calling: right up the middle.

So if you are Daz-minded, going for it yields a 40ish percent chance, while kicking might be 50 . Kicking at a 50% rate by a head case was in fact a rational choice by Daz

However keep in mind, lichtenberg's long kick in BC last scrimmage was from the 14 yard line. Otherwise, per Herald, he "struggled"

You can also see on both kicks that lighten erg is still a head case. He rushed the first one and kicked too low (a sure sign he was beyond his comfort range) and the second one he shanked. He was a head case last year.

#adzdaz

Eagle Esquire said...

I was listening to a sports radio show in Atlanta on my way to work today. Paul Johnson took sole responsibility for his team not playing to the level he thought they could. Something Daz would never do. Almost spit my coffee out.

BCAlum2000 said...

Adazzio blaming his players is beyond pathetic at this point. One simple point for anyone with any ability to think analytically or use statistics ... the chance of converting a 4th and 1 is HIGHER than our kicker's ability to hit field goals as he has proved throughout his horrible career to date (< 50%). Never mind all the other facts such as the fact that BC was dominating the line of scrimmage, etc. This makes the decision to kick on 4th and 1 a no-brainer.

When you continue to lose close game after close game, it stops being bad luck and clearly points to bad coaching. If this team loses another 4-5 games by a TD or less this year, Adazzio needs to be out. No more second chances.

Does no one wonder why a Jags was so successful at BC with all of TOB's players? Its because his mindset was the polar opposite of TOB ... i.e. he played to win, not to not lose. Adazzio is a more extreme version of TOB. Bring in an aggressive coach, and this team as it is currently constituted (subpar offense and all) wins 8-9 games.

mod34b said...

@bcalum2000

"the chance of converting a 4th and 1 is HIGHER than our kicker's ability to hit field goals as he has proved throughout his horrible career to date (< 50%)"

Not true from Daz's own experience at BC. See my comment above

BCAlum2000 said...

Yes, I was not referring to Adazzio/BC, but in general. My over-arching point, would you take your chances on 4th and 1 with a huge OLine that was dominating the defense and a stud power RB, or a terrible kicker who literally can not hit a FG beyond 30 yards? This was not even the worst of his decisions on Saturday. The offensive play calling on that drive with 5+ minutes to go was even worse as ATL pointed out. BC was the far superior team, yet lost. How many times is this going to continue to happen before people realize that Adazzio is the problem and needs to go ... and take Bates with you.

EL MIZ said...

Whether the strategy was right or wrong can be debated (although i, like almost all, think Addazio was wrong to kick the FG and essentially hand GT the ball back), but the public throwing of 18-20 yr olds under the bus is an embarrassment.

Addazio is guaranteed to make over $2 million for the next few seasons, he has "job security" in the sense that he's gonna get his money. A real coach and leader would have taken blame for his very questionable tactics. Blaming a bunch of kids is pathetic

Knucklehead said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Knucklehead said...

The overarching points don't have any bearing on the conversation at hand.

The decisions he made in the GT were rational and born out of statistics.

If you want him fired stop taking about the GT game and start talking about the Wake game last season. He should have been fired immediately upon the completion of that game for his antics and decisions. It was a national embarrassment - ESPN/FOX showed his meltdown over and over. I have been writing about it here for months.

He should be fired for negligence if he lets Lichtenstein kick in a real game ever again(Wager, UMASS or otherwise).

If he loses these three he is out(Syracuse, UCONN or Wake).

Good thing for him the Boston media doesn't care about Boston College football. Good thing for him Bates cannot read what the Boston media writes.

NEDofSavinHill said...

ESPN listed the best records all time for coaches in bowl games. TOB was 4th all time with an 8-2 record. But for an injury to Russel Wilson in a game they were leading at half he would have been 9-1 ( 90%), first all time. Critics of TOB show a lack of understanding of football. He took a four win program and made it a ten win one with the best graduation record in the land. Jags second year was worse than his first. His bowl record was 1-1. His team was on a downward spiral. Comparing him to TOB is comparable to comparing Cederchuk to York. 2. Flutie's performance at Duke was the best QB effort over the Daz era. Sixteen yards per attempt is unequaled. 3. What a sorry performance by the SEC. Where is the beef? 6-6 in non conference games. The Big 10 was 12-2. The ACC was 10-2. The PAC 12 and the BIG12 had better records. Of the SEC's six victories two were overtime home contests. Arkansas had a one point win at home and Fla. barely won. They are not dominant or superior. They are ordinary. They are no better than the other power 5 conferences and this weekend they were the worst. Ignore the hype and bluster. Their league consists of Bama and the thirteen dwarfs. 4. How good is the QB play in the ACC? Watson. Kaaya. Jackson. Francois. Add in ND's Kizer and you have five of the top ten QBs in the land. Very impressive. 5. Some observant type posted on this site last year that Bates should require Daz to be in the booth not on the sidelines. That is still a good idea.

dixieagle said...

As big a wuss as I think Addazio is with regard to play calling, the thing that makes me really angry is his refusal to take ultimate responsibility. He is forever throwing players under the bus (unlike Kelly of Notre Dame the other night after their loss.) Between that and signaling to his offense that he doesn't trust them to get it done, I wonder what players really think of him.

SaturdaysOnShea said...

Tom O'Brien never had a ten win season as a head coach at BC or NC State. I don't think your point is lost, but don't make up statistics. His ceiling was 9 wins and he rarely put his teams in a position to win more than that. The maddening thing about TOB is that Jagz proved the talent those teams had and what they could have done with better coaching.

Daz's ceiling appears to be 6-7 wins. His trademark in four years has been to have the team on the cusp of 8 only to lose.

BCAlum2000 said...

I never said Jags was a good coach. My point was, with a simple change in mentality, he was able to take the same players TOB recruited and coached, and turn them into 10 game winners and took them to back-to-back ACC title games.

As for Flutie, are we seriously still talking about this? The kid is only at BC because of his last name. He couldnt start at QB for UMass.

As yes, the Wake game was pathetic last year. As was a the Duke game. As were many others. my point is, we are now through 1 game of this season and its the same thing. Only way to fix this unfortunately is to once again bring in new coaches. Man, the days of coaching consistency (think TOB and Big Al) are LONG gone at The Heights.

BCAlum2000 said...

consistency = stability

BarraCuda said...

The reason TOB had such a good record in bowl games is that his teams always underachieved in the regular season, so BC was always playing a lesser team than they should have been playing.

BCAlum2000 said...

Correct regarding bowl record. His best bowl win was over Georgia in the Music City Bowl back in 2002 I think ... and that was not a great Georgia team.

I love TOB. He was exactly what the program needed coming off of the gambling debacle and Dan Henning. That said, he had a ceiling. His conservatism would never allow for more than 9 wins. That said, he was an automatic 8-9 wins annually. Never thought I would be clamoring for those days again, but I am after the past five years ...

Knucklehead said...

Tom would still be here if Genie poo gave him an extra $125k a year. All he wanted was middle of the pack ACC money.

Honestly though everyone on here was chirping about him too.

Jags was a fraud. I don't care about the record. Logan made those team what they were offensively not Jagodinski. Called it from Day 1. Tampa ran him out quick. God he was a fraud. I think he coaches WR's of all things at a D3 or he maybe he is fleecing some school in the Southeast now.

I know someone who was roommates with that DB from Maryland whose brother played for Florida(Browns). He was a total washout. Jags ace recruit. The kid was a real "BC Guy."

Knucklehead said...

Hayden

mod10aeagle said...

Re: 4th and 19 -- I'm not following your logic, ATL. We failed to call the obvious blitz because we were so focused on the run? It was out of Addazio's hands? How are you distinguishing between "strategic" errors and "executional" errors? Is the failure to make the right call strategic or executional?

Guido said...

Knucklehead - You are right on when you say that Jags was "A FRAUD" and the record of the team was TOTALLY MISLEADING !!!! He was nothing - Logan called the plays and the incredible talent was given to him by none other than TOB. And there is probably more to the story of his leaving than was stated in the press - believe me !! And where is this huge talent now ??? His record after leaving BC tells it all !!!

BCAlum2000 said...

I think everyone knows that Jags was not a good coach. Hiring Logan was his best move. That said, he still set the aggressive tone and hence my point, he took TOB's players and turned them into 10+ win teams. TOB could never exceed 9. Adazzio isnt even a poor mans TOB.

SaturdaysOnShea said...

Jagz is currently the OC for the Georgia State Panthers of the Sun Belt Conference. He joined the staff in 2012 under HC Trent Miles. 2012 was also the first year GSU played in the FBS. Since 2012, GSU has trended up going 0-12, 1-11, and 6-7 last year (which includes a bowl game loss).

In 2015, GSU ranked 11th among all FBS teams in passing offense.

CT said...

Jags does a weekly spot on one of the big sports talk shows here in Atlanta. It's the flagship for the Falcons, so U guess tgey wanted Ryan's old coach for added perspective. And he's a GSU guy now. Anyway, his candor is refreshing. Said last week that had he to do over again, he would not have gone on the interview. The grass isn't always greener, he said. Felt compelled because there are only 32 jobs at that level and if asked, you gotta go. But now he regrets it. Said he would probably still be at BC today and "winning." Disagree, personally, but honest nevertheless. You can tell that it's been a long road down from ACC championship games to GSU. As for Daz. Dude is Schembechler in the 1970s. If I wwre Wade, I'd transfer. Guy has Les Miles-like ability to develop QBs. I don't know how good Fla is, but UMass played them tough.

mod34b said...

CT. I know you'll hate this and say something shitty in return, but it is nice to read an interesting comment by you that lacks snark. Ok you and hoib can call me names now. ha!

Eagle Esquire said...

Additionally, due to BC fan's reputation for not traveling well they were passed over by a number of second tier bowls.

Sarum80 said...

BC should have hired Logan when Jags left

MattBC03 said...

Some great comments above, including the Jagz dialogue and TOB.

TOB did not leave for the money. I was told by a source a while ago that GDF and TOB did not speak for TWO years! GDF wanted the team run his own way and felt TOB was too loyal to certain players. TOB wanted out immediately and if you recall, he interviewed for the Washington job and didn't get it (I believe Tyrone Willingham got it). Then TOB left the next year.