Thursday, October 27, 2016

BC-NC State preview

It is amazing that we are such underdogs to a team that only has one good win (I am counting their win over Wake, not the Notre Dame hurricane game). But we can't score and we haven't won a conference game in two years. I guess we deserve that sort of disrespect. If Addazio is ever going to dig out of this hole, this would be a good time to start shoveling.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Former BC Defensive End Max Holloway died in a car accident Thursday morning. My prayers go out to his friends, family and former teammates. Because of social media, I do pick up on the friendships and clicks among some of the more recent BC sports grads. Holloway was part of that huge Jags recruiting class that had a very unique BC experience. (Recruited by one coach, playing for another, still winning, but seeing the signs of discord, etc.). I am glad that despite their uncertain times, those guys genuinely seemed to like each other and support each other. I feel for those guys now that they've lost one of their own.

Three Simple Keys
1. Bring the pressure over and over. I wrote something similar last week and the way things played out just reinforced my belief that BC needs to blitz 2/3s of the time like the Don Brown days. It plays to our best players' strengths (Milano and Landry) and might create big plays. It will also help our DBs.
2. Use play action a lot. I predict NC State will load up the box and dare Wade to beat them in the air. It is somewhat easy to predict since that is what every opponent has done. We need to punish them for that with big plays off of play action.
3. More game changers from Special Teams. We need Rouse and Willis to help change field position with good runbacks.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 7-10 while on the road at BC
-- BC leads the series 8-5
-- NC State has never won two in a row in this series
-- The current line is BC+15.5

Factoid
Not that it matters now and not that I can reveal how I know, but Dave Doeren had real interest in the BC job and never got anywhere in the process. I don't know if he preferred BC to NC State or if we would have gotten into a bidding war, but his reps certainly wanted BC to offer. We didn't and he went to Raleigh. I don't know if we would be in a better place now, but there is that aspect to this all.

Scoreboard Watching
Last week I ditched scoreboard watching in favor of highlighting a perspective candidate to be BC's next head coach. This week I introduce you to LSU Defensive Coordinator Dave Aranda. What I like about Aranda is that prior to LSU, he was the Defensive Coordinator at Wisconsin. Badger Coordinators have done very well when given a shot to run their own team. I also like that Wisconsin coaches need to recruit like BC coaches in that they have to travel beyond their local footprint and have to successfully scout and mold three stars. Because of the shake up at LSU, Aranda might not get many interviews this offseason. If BC makes a change, they should at least talk to him.

I hope to see...
an early lead. Even last week, when the game was relatively close, we were still playing catch-up. With Addazio's game management, that doesn't work to our favor. If we got an early lead in this game, then it becomes a matter of holding on instead of trying to comeback.

BC is in trouble if...
We have too many QB turnovers. Assuming Wade starts, but even if Towles plays, we can't have drive killing INTs and fumbles. We are just not that good on Offense to get away with those sorts of mistakes.

Overall
Call me crazy, but I don't feel bad about this game. The pressure and expectations for the Syracuse game were high. Now Addazio has nothing to lose. Why not go crazy and see what happens? I don't know if that will lead to a win, but we've seen a lot of crazy stuff over the last two years. I say NC State chokes this one away and BC somehow comes out with a victory.
Final Score: BC 20, NC State 17

42 comments:

EL MIZ said...

"call me crazy" you are crazy ATL. BC getting 15.5 is a lot, but NC State is a better team. went into Death Valley and lost by a score but hung with Clemson all game (and really should have won). Clemson steamrolled us in our house.

maybe the change up to Wade will help (which it should since Towles is terrible), but I don't see Wade covering up the numerous weaknesses this team has, the biggest of which is bald, mustachioed, and stands on the sideline alternatively pouting like a child and screaming at his own players and the referees like a man possessed.

NC State 28, BC 14

sad to hear the Holloway news.

CT said...

I agree with one fundamental aspect of this post...the title.

It is, indeed, a preview.

The good news: there seems to be an emerging scientific consensus that optimistic people live longer. The bad news: the deluded don't.

blist said...

let's end the ACC slide so the next coach doesn't have that hanging over his head.

Guido said...

Just looking at the NC State defense and they certainly are large up front and are pretty good against the run. BC will have to deviate from their pattern of predictability on running the ball. Looking forward to see who starts at QB and also to see if BC can keep this game close , maybe eking out a win , but I doubt it.

Back to an earlier post by me relating to BC basketball (AND TO MOD34 ), there were 3 transfers to the BC team , the third being a guard from BYU - Jordan Chatman 6'5" about 195lbs. I know that transfers are probably the new thing in college sports, but 3 TRANFERS in 1 year to a basketball team is indeed RATHER UNUSUAL and to me shows that there is a problem in recruiting . Christian is in his 3rd year , but nuff said !!!!!

Bravesbill said...

Absolute insanity.

Danny Boy said...

Guido, I responded to you in the other thread. Agreed that 3 transfers in a year is unusual. However, we had 9 open scholarships two years ago, and i believe 7 last year. That is extremely bad for roster management. There are 3 ways to fix that. Not bring in scholarship athletes, and wait to balance out the roster, bring in scholarship freshman, and try to force them out later, or bring in transfers to delay the process and spread out the graduating years a bit. None are ideal, but the last route is clearly the best. If the practice continues once we balance out the roster, then I agree, a definite warning sign.

Back to NC State this weekend. The scary thing is that I'm not sure Daz knows how to bring the crazy. Once he got desperate he could either double down, or throw everything out and start over. He doubled down. At this point, he'd be quadrupling down. In an ideal world, we'd let Wade throw the ball around, and Daz would let all of the guys out of his dog house. I'd love to see both Smiths line up wide and dare the safeties to keep up with both of them, and let a TE and slot receiver wreak havoc underneath. Let Willis create in the backfield (not just on sweeps).

Our defense went from bend but don't break to cause untold mayhem under Brown. Now we're somehow utilizing the worst of both approaches. We should Blitz early and often, create confusion, and not let their QB pick apart our D.

BCMike said...

If any team can lose to BC, it's NC State. They're the only ones who can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory even better than we can.

That being said...and I hate to say this...but NC State is just a much better team. There's zero chance Daz gets creative and, if anything, with Darius gets *EVEN MORE* conservative.

NCST 27
BC 13

Tony Abard said...
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Tony Abard said...

This idiot has picked BC to win every game this year but one.

Guido said...

Thanks , Danny Boy for the info - As I said earlier that I did not follow basketball - I never realized that the situation had deteriorated to such dire levels. I will have to go back and review the history of this program. As I now recall , there were young men who just decided to leave the program since it was in a state of flux (to say the least) leaving gaps that you mention etc. Again ,thanks and I will "Hit the books" to better understand. Well, just another reconstruction project for BC !!

Napolean Bonaparte said...

Despite the comments on how best to use our skill positions - can we really do anything "crazy" or otherwise effectively with our OL against an NC State defensive front that must have been competitive against Clemson? On the other hand - I keep thinking about somebody's analysis on Towles' inability to deliver the ball on time and it makes you wonder whether our OL is as bad as it may seem. So maybe we have overlooked the QB play and the impact that has had on everything. If Wade can pass and be calm under pressure - maybe we'll find out.

knucklehead said...

There is no way on God's green earth that Boston College beats NC State.

Georgia Eagle said...

ATL, you almost continuously pick BC to win. What planet are you on?

John said...

ATL is a hopeful fan, like most of us. But we have been down so long, we don't know what up is.

It's okay to wish, as long as his other comments make sense.

Georgia Eagle said...

They do. He's just too optimistic. But I respect and admire his passion and dedication to BC and operating this blog.

mod34b said...

RIP Max too young so tragic

Some stats -- Bc and NCSU vs ACC competition

NCSU Rush D - 116 yds per game
BC offense - 149

BC rush d - 167 yards
ncsu Off - 114

BC pass D 271 yards
NCSU Pass 277

NCSU Pass D 350 yards
BC Pass O 96

NCSU Total D 466 yards
BC Total O 245

BC Total D 438 yards
NCSU Total O 391
------------------------

NCSU is tough on the run. But terrible vs pass. Worst in ACC. But BC Pass O is also the worst in the ACC.

So worst vs worst might determine the game...of course BC passing stinks...unless Wade has some unknown throwing skill

nceaglefan said...

Story on USA today online that BC will not renew Bates, shocker!

mod34b said...

Good catch nceagle. Great this is getting some ink.

Sad part is the "buzz from BC" suggests Daz could be retained

But Bates going

Excerpt from USA Today

According to multiple people with knowledge of the situation, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak publicly, the vibe coming out of Boston College is that Bates’ contract is not likely to be renewed when it expires next summer.
Bates has flirted with other openings in recent months, but at this point it seems almost certain he will be in place through the end of this season and into 2017. That sets up a scenario where the school, if it wanted to change football coaches this cycle, would do so with an athletics director who is perceived to be a lame duck.

In other words, there’s a school of thought at Boston College that it might just be better from a timing perspective to give Addazio one more chance to turn it around and start fresh with a new athletics director next year.

Georgia Eagle said...
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Flexman said...

I suggest if wherever you live and the weather is decent you go outside and enjoy the day and don't waste your time watching BC vs NCST. Not only is BC bad they are a boring team to watch.

Georgia Eagle said...

If dazoshit isn't fired, that will be the last straw.

Napolean Bonaparte said...

If its true that they have decided Bates will be canned - they should get him out of there immediately. Put someone else in on an interim basis and commence the search for another AD. If they do not do that - they have gone from dumb to fully retarded.

Keeping Daz another year is absurd. They should have him finish out the season and negotiate a settlement. Yes - its a lot of money to swallow and they can lay that on Bates and Leahy.

But first - the BOT needs to remove Leahy as the sole decision maker on any of this and put an athletics oversight committee in place. All of this has proven to be beyond Leahy's talent to manage.

This whole situation is the pits. Time to swallow hard and clean the mess.

Georgia Eagle said...

Fully agree.

Shabby1011 said...

NB completely agree..if they have already made decision and leaked to the press then Bates has no credibility. What should be done eventually must be done immediately. Bates not being on the field for Luke retirement spoke volumes. Allow Senior member of Department to handle the department till next hire.

Preaching to the choir but the most important job for a AD in a Power 5 conference is how they handle the football program. Hiring the right coach, providing the right resources and scheduling. Basketball and Hockey in BC case are a very far second place. Non-revenue sports can be handled by another member of the department.

If BC lets Bates play out his contract till the end of the year and then keep Daz for another year (which is probably a legit possibility) then it is just laughable and almost so stupid its hard to get mad.

Somebody has good inside sources, please tell us that Bates is done after the 85-10 loss to Louisville and Daz is fired on plane coming home from loss to Wake. Please...

Guido said...

Agree with NB !!! Why retain Bates ?? But this is the time that the BOD immediately select a new group to serve as a "Search Committee" for that critical task of finding the proper individual to serve as AD. Try to get people like Doug Flutie , DeOssie , Phelan who are knowledgeable on that team and have pride in their alma mater. If the process is haphazard and qualified, loyal BC personnel are not selected to be part of the "Group" , then we are doomed for many years to come.

mod34b said...

DeOssie should be nowhere near the BC BOT or sport committee. He is an idiot in my opinion. Let's just add Bill Romanowski too! Ha.

Phelan? why because he luckily caught a pass?

Flutie, yes.

how about Tony Thurman?

Maybe even Jared Dudley - not football guy but a fierce and smart competitor who knows about winning.

knucklehead said...

When does Bates contract end? If they aren't renewing him then that sounds like he is the AD until the contract ends. That ultimately determines if dazzler is coaching bc football next year.

They have to let the new AD hire the new football coach. Those two need to be in fucking lock step.

We need an aggressive coach with experience coaching second rate football successfully: 1) Don Brown or 2)Ken Niumatalolo. Ken can bring back Clint Kuboyama as a kick return coach.

Mike Mayock, Tom Waddle and Matt Ryan would be on my committee.

CT said...

If there were a more perfect way to teach the fair catch, Kuboyama would be the guy to teach it.

Bobinsky at GTech quit recently to go to Purdue-Purdue!-in part because a) hard to win at GT and b) he and Paul Johnson didn't get along and was too much to buyout given the bball coaches they're still paying not to coach.

First thing Bobinsky did: fired the football coach.

Guido said...

Mod34b - I was not promoting Flutie etc . , but merely trying to say - get some individuals on the Selection Committee that have knowledge of the sports arena and also would have loyalty to Boston College. There are plenty of BC grads that could be approached - from the various sports program ie BB , hockey . The selection of these individuals should not be based on the popularity of he / she by the public , but those who would do the proper research to get a QUALIFIED AD to steer the ship. As Knucklehead stated - certainly a Mike Mayock should have an incredible knowledge of the "Landscape" - however, some may say that they can't stand "Mayock" , but who cares if he can steer us to a great candidate.

mod34b said...

I get you Guido.... good points.... I just have a pronounced aversion to Deossie

mayock.... good too... agree what is needed are smart people who know sports and know what it takes to win .... BC needs some diversity of backgrounds and experience too on said committee

Shabby1011 said...

I'm with Knuckle...Don Brown or guy from Navy. We don't need to reinvent the wheel. Get a guy who knows the level and has been successful. I am very weary of up and coming young coaches even Fleck who I know is going to be highly regarded.

Michigan is going to be in the championship game. Hiring DC of best defense in country coming off National Championship game is a Home Run hire. The players would love it. I have friends who played for Brown in college in past and love him. Say he is best coach they ever had. His career record as HC is 95-45 and he coached at brutally hard places, Northeastern and UMass. If you can win at Northeastern then you can win anywhere. He knows the school, great coach, been a successful HC, is really demanding but loved by his players. Harbaugh loves him, you can say what you want about khaki pants but he is a great coach and knows other great coaches.

Guy from Navy is home run as well. Great coach, highly successful. Just don't know if he would come has a good job.

Speaking of great coaches, one thing I have never heard during Daz entire time at BC is him mentioning any interaction with Belichick. Wouldn't you think you have the greatest HC in the history of the sport in your backyard and you would try to form so sort of relationship with him? I would be at every single practice, film session, chalk talk etc that I could. Maybe he has done that but I have never heard him mention it. However Daz has such a misplaced ego he thinks he invented the game. Would be interested if anyone has some color on this dynamic?

Bravesbill said...

Pass on the Navy guy. While he has been successful, he's had to rely on a gimmick offense because of the athletic disparity. His teams are very disciplined (which should be expected from a service school), but does he have any experience coaching outside of a triple option offensive system? There's usually a big ceiling on the success of option based teams. I'd hate to see the triple option by implemented at BC, much like Paul Johnson implemented it at Ga Tech. Further, recruiting for a service school is vastly different than recruiting for a P5 school and even for a mid major. Does the Navy coach have any experience in recruiting and vying for top talent, or even a lot of mid tiered 3 star players? I guess the only good thing we know in this area is that he can recruit guys that fit his system and he can recruit with with stringent academic standards.

Georgia Eagle said...

Braves bill, dont we have strict academic standards, too? If this guy can succeed at Navy where they not only have strict academic standards, but also a five year ( waved to two) military commitment. This dude could be a super star at BC.

marcos said...

Love Don Brown but really don't want him as HC. I think being a great DC is his ceiling. He may have won as a HC but that wasn't at the FBS level. Also he is getting up there in age.

Tony Abard said...

Were there ever really any Super Fans?

nceaglefan said...

Great point about Belichick, probably because he knows Daz is a clueless clown. TOB was spotted in Foxboro quite often, I am sure partly because of the Navy connection. Leahy cannot be involved in any athletic decisions going forward, his record is a disaster(please feel free to drink if you are still playing debate drinking game) I personally think Coughlin needs to be part of the process. He is the reason BC football took off in the 90's, the program was a disaster when he took over, it is even worse now. Hey maybe he will pull a Bill Walsh and come back to the college game for a couple of years and mentor a future successor. Bates needs to go at season end and so does Daz, I think the fan base at this point will not accept anything else.

Bravesbill said...

GE, I mentioned that he can recruit for his system even with the stringent standards (mostly due to the fact he's not recruiting touted athletes and players). However, I'm not sure he can recruit the talent an ACC team needs to be competitive in the conference. Outside of Ga Tech, most triple offense schools (which usually are the three academy schools every year) employ that offense to mask the huge athletic disparity that exists between them and their opponents. Again, outside of Ga Tech, what other P5 school has utilized the triple option in recent memory? None that I can think of. If the Navy guy can coach outside of a triple offense system, I'd be more open to him. I just fear that he will be the next Paul Johnson.

Georgia Eagle said...

All he can do is win. But I agree there is a chance he could devolve into another Paul Johnson. ( Also a success at Navy).

EL MIZ said...

"I just fear that he will be the next Paul Johnson"

Johnson has won 58% of his games at Ga Tech, 57% winning percentage in the ACC. (for comparison, TOB was 62% of games, 52% of conference games) Johnson has won his division 4x and has won double-digit games in 2 of his 8 seasons at GT. he averages 7.6 wins per season. if the downside with the Navy coach is 7 wins per year and the upside is conference title games and maybe an Orange Bowl, sign me up.

#fireBatezio

CT said...

GT: the last team you want to play with a week to prepare, the first with a month to prep.

No thanks on Johnson. Guy is arrogant and thin-skinned. There's no Plan B with that offense. Unless you have Joe Hamilton.

Georgia Eagle said...

Who said anything about hiring Johnson? He's an arrogant, pompous jerk who has failed to deliver at GT. Does anyone, in his right mind, think he could do better at BC which refuses to throw away academic standards like they do at GT?

Bravesbill said...

Johnson had a few good years at first. Now the ACC has gotten accustomed to the triple option and it's been downhill ever since.