Thursday, October 19, 2017

BC-Virginia preview

Last week I asked for something unexpected. We got it. Beyond shaking up the doldrums of the season, it also gave BC and Addazio new life. A much needed bowl berth is still on the table. But to get there, BC needs to finish 3-2 at the worst. Virginia is a favorite, but this is a winnable game. As we know, winning a winnable game doesn't come easy.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Virginia's hiring of Bronco Mendenhall is an interesting test case for BC. Although there are geographic and religious differences, I think BC and Virginia share a similar sports culture, leadership perspective and philosophy. Prior to Mendenhall, Virginia Football had made a lot of hires based on fit and ties to the school. Mendenhall was a true outsider. His first year was rough on and off the field. This year, there seems to be improvement. (I don't know how donors are reacting.) BC has made a lot of recent hires based on fit and ties. The last guy you might call an outsider was Dan Henning. Now as we potentially approach another search, maybe we look to UVA's example and hire someone totally new to BC. Perhaps the risk of the coach not fitting in is worth the upside of being something greater than you've been.

Three Simple Keys
1. Continue to exploit play action. After last week, Virginia will likely load up to stop the run. BC needs to hit the short play action passes to make them pay regardless of whether it is Brown or Wade.
2. Better tackling. I know it is silly and simple, but it has been an issue all season. Virginia lacks some of the game breakers we've seen in other games. No one they have is as elusive as Lamar Jackson, so everyone needs to wrap up.
3. Don't give the ball away. Virginia is not a bunch of ball hawks and don't generate many turnovers. We need to protect and be careful. Don't help them out.

Gambling Notes
-- BC won on it only previous trip to Charlottesville
-- Addazio is 10-12 on the road
-- BC leads the all-time series 5-0
The current line is BC+7

Factoid
As has been mentioned by Blauds and will probably be worked into the broadcast, Spaz's son is a walk-on at UVA. I have no ill will toward the kid. I just wish his dad had never been our head coach.

Scoreboard Watching
Can one win get us back to watching scoreboards or should I focus on the coaching carousel? How about a little of both? The game I will pay attention to is Penn State vs Michigan. Beyond the interest in two Big Ten powers, I am also interested to see how Moorhead does against Don Brown's defense.

I hope to see...
BC stop the big plays. If we are going to truly be a bend but don't break, then let's start seeing some results.

BC is in trouble if...
We keep missing field goals. They won't all be chip shots like the end of last week. We need to convert some or else the offense will continue to sputter.

Overall
I know Virginia is 5-1. I know they have some respectable wins. I know it is on the road. Yet with even all those factors to consider, I think BC can match up well with them. I think it will be a close game where BC's Defense makes the difference. Maybe a late stop to kill a UVA drive. BC sneaks out with renewed vigor and two game win streak.
Final Score: BC 21, Virginia 20

32 comments:

STL_eagle said...

FSU and NC State will be difficult games. UConn should be a win. This season is going to come down to UVA and Syracuse. I think UVA is the more likely win so let's hope that they deliver.

A win against UVA and a 5-7 record will mean a new coach but won't mean that we need to rebuild the entire team and it will benefit recruiting. This would be a pretty good outcome for this season. Going 4-8 would be depressing. Going 6-6 puts us in purgatory. Going 7-5 is unlikely but if Daz pulls that off he deserves another year with some emerging talent.

I predict 5-7 with a new coach and high hopes for 2018.

Section D said...

UVA seems beatable. I've seen parts of a few games. Nothing special, but still a solid squad.

UVA is #1 is ACC is total defense and #1 in pass D. But #9 in Rush D.

So if good OL play against L'ville was not a fluke, BC has a good chance running the ball. Add some dink-n-dunk passing and it will be close.

STL - sadly, i think at 5-7 Daz gets another year, particularly if 5-7 gets them a bowl.

Georgia Eagle said...

Teams with losing records should NOT be bowling. It's a total travesty.

CvegasEagle said...

Cvegas (my username) stands for Charlottesville. I am a BC alum from Cville. Will be there tailgating in EastA if anyone else makes the trip. Happy to have you. Uva has played no one. @ Boise State is a decent win, but its a down year for them. Cheers!

Erik said...

I don't like or dislike UVA, but I am going to enjoy watching BC play them just because it is rare in our current divisional setup. I believe we won't play them again for 6 years and won't play in Charlottesville for 12 years. I'm bored of playing Wake, NC State, and Virginia Tech every year.

JBQ said...

I think that 5-7 and the Dazzler dances again at Alumni with a smirky grin on his face. Riverdance he is not.

Eagle Esquire said...

UVA was lucky to beat UNC. Refs missed a blatant 15 yard face mask on 4th down on their last drive that would have put UNC near the red zone.

notfadeaway said...

Nothing Daz does at this point should get him another year. The verdict is in and he is not acceptable and will never lead a consistent team. Time to move on. I hate that one win and everyone forgets about all the BS.

Georgia Eagle said...

Exactly.

Danny Boy said...

I just hope that, regardless of our QB, we get play calling like we did in the 2nd half of the Louisville game. That is the type of offense we should be running. Play actions, roll-outs, off-tackle runs, these should all be a standard part of our gameplan, along with deeper routes. I loved the wheel route out of the slot to T. Smith. It was great to put him on the field and not run him in the jet sweep.

I don't think anyone has forgotten who Daz is, but last week gave us a better picture of who our players could be. I'd like to think that everyone here wants our players to play to their fullest capabilities.

John said...

UVA has held both UNC and Duke to less than 300 yards total offense. I don't know what they have done earlier. Their Defensive backs are stellar, and they are tough on 3rd down, allowing less than 30% conversions.

We have our work cut out for us, but we can move the chains with proper and good play calling.

As far as stopping their offense, I hope Reid puts our guys in a position to win. I'm scared to death thinking about the big plays our defense gives up.

Perhaps less risk taking might be the way to go this week.

canttakeit said...

5 and 7 gets him another year. They are not going to eat this contract off a non dumpster fire season There have been no blow outs yet. They are expecting to eat both bball contracts. Bball means head coach plus 2 high paid assistants
Does anyone really think that this administration is going to pay out over 4.5 million for fired coaches. It will take a lose out for Addazzio to gone.

knucklehead said...

Line is down to 4.5.

knucklehead said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
knucklehead said...

How does 5-7 win one of the future wins against UConn get us into a bowl. That would be 2 conference wins and last place.

STL_eagle said...

There are 80 bowl spots to fill and 130 schools to choose from. Evitably a handful of 5-7 schools get invited. Since Academic Progress Rate is one of the factors for which 5-7 teams qualify BC could be near the top of the list particularly with a signature win against the current Heisman winner.

I am not a big fan of sub-.500 invites but it is a nice perk for the players especially the Seniors. Daz will be praying for a bowl if they finish 5-7 since it gives him a shot for redemption.

Unlike some posters I am quite confident that Daz will be let go at 5-7 unless they go to a bowl and win and improve to 6-7. They have plenty of money, board support, a 5 year track record and a new AD. You can't ask for a stronger mandate for change short of another winless ACC season which thankfully we have avoided.

Anne Marie Gahring said...

Holy Cross had guts DO WE ?

The time has long pat to stop SCREWING AROUND !!!!!!!!

The OH WELL CROWD can live with 5-7. What a shocking revelation .

knucklehead said...

5-7 it is. Thanks for the info.

Napolean Bonaparte said...

The fact that someone here uses the tag "canttakeit" pretty much sums up the state of things!

Georgia Eagle said...

Any tv coverage?

Eagle Esquire said...

I’m pretty sure it’s on tv in Atlanta. I think fox sports is airing it. Channel 848 if you have xfinity.

Georgia Eagle said...

Thanks, Eagle. I think I have the FSN.

BCAlum2000 said...

he last guy you might call an outsider was Dan Henning.

Huh? How was Adazzio not an "outsider"?

NEDofSavinHill said...

Half of BC's endowment is in the market. Stocks are up almost 30% since election day. That translates into almost 300 million in growth. The buyout for a coach would be less than 2% of the increase. Money should be no object.

BCAlum2000 said...

Half of BC's endowment is in the market. Stocks are up almost 30% since election day. That translates into almost 300 million in growth. The buyout for a coach would be less than 2% of the increase. Money should be no object.

I love the arbitrary timeline reference. Can you also please add how the market is up since the market bottomed in March 2008 and how that translates versus the endowment? Here's a hint, its north of 250% ...

BTW, no school uses its endowment to buy-out bad coaches contracts.

BCAlum2000 said...

Oh and you are actually off by nearly 50%. The S&P 500 is actually up 20.5% since election day (i.e. November 8, 2016). But if we have learned anything since that date, its to never let facts stand in the way of good BS.

BCAlum2000 said...

And that should have said March 2009 not 2008 for the market bottom.

Georgia Eagle said...

Funny how the media, or anyone for that matter, mention how the market are soaring since Trump was elected. Just saying.

knucklehead said...

BCAlumn2000, You missed the point. Money is no object to a buyout.

BCAlum2000 said...

I agree knucklehead. I think if BC wants him gone, he will be gone. However, its harder these days due to decade of suck, to get donors to cough up the funds ... which is usually how these pay-offs are made.

Danny Boy said...

I think the donors will be absolutely overjoyed to reach into the pockets for the right hire. Hiring someone with promise and excitement around them will result in energy amongst the donors.

BCAlum2000 said...

yes, if Chip Kelly is waiting in the wings, there is no issue getting $2.5mm to rid us of Adazzio. More likely, if there is no one in ready waiting to go, then Im not so sure ...