Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Where is the next win coming?

To turn the corner, Addazio will have to start winning. He is quick to point out how tough the schedule has been. He doesn't mention that the remaining schedule is not that favorable to BC. Of the six games left, BC is only favored in one (UConn). What's interesting based on the ESPN ratings is that although the predicted point spreads have shrunk against UVA and Syracuse, the probability of BC winning hasn't moved all that much. BC currently has a 30.8% against Virginia and a 27.8% against Syracuse. If Addazio wants to keep his job, he has to win all three. Would those five combined wins be enough for Jarmond?

At 5-7 with a new AD and a shrinking fanbase, Addazio's future would be a hot topic among those who still care. If he gets to six wins, then BC goes to a bowl game and he is safe for another year. But where would that sixth win come from?

Louisville looks to be BC's toughest remaining opponent. The game is on the road and Louisville's weakness -- pass defense -- is the area where BC is least capable of exploiting something. ESPN only gives BC a 10.8% chance of the upset.

Florida State might be the best chance of an upset. They are struggling and trying to break in their backups. The game is also at Alumni.

Addazio has a good record against NC State, but they look much improved.

Last year, Addazio stopped the bleeding long enough to get to a bowl. This year, I think he has enough talent to do so again. Let's see if he has the team's belief and a game plan sound enough to do it.


35 comments:

Georgia Eagle said...

ATL,
Not many people share your eternal optimism. I fear your love of your Alma mater clouds your good judgement. I sincerely hope I'm wrong but doubt it.

Jazzyg said...

I can't envision bc winning 3 of 6 and I dam sure don't want daz back.

Section D said...

in 2 weeks we play UVA.

UVA has beaten a bunch of chumps, including beating UConn by only a few scores - Not a blow out.

If BC beats UVa, there is major hope. UConn is a gimmee. Now up to 5 wins.

Then it comes down to the last game against Syracuse in the dome. Not a great place for BC.

Heck, the season might prove to be exciting. There is some talent on the team and they really are young in many sports...

I'd rather root for success, hope than think about Daz and his demise.

Then again getting rewarded for a sad 6 wins with a crap bowl and Daz for another year is awful to think about.

TheFive said...

We've won 2 ACC games in 2 1/2 years. Expecting us to equal or exceed that total over the rest of the season is laughable.

Georgia Eagle said...

Precisely. Section D, you and ATL are drinking too much cool aid. I prefer scotch.

JBQ said...

UConn is a very lousy team. However, they have a hot quarterback and BC better be careful in an away game. It looks like 3-9 and not 5-7. If he makes it to five, then he will be back. Florida State should have beaten Miami. They didn't milk the clock. BC has no chance.---So, who pays off the extension? They should send the bill for 7.8M to BB and let him pay if off at 50.00 a month for the next 13,000 years.

STL_eagle said...

I was at BC for parents weekend and there seems to be strong indications that BC needs to go 7-6 (i.e. 6-6 season and win bowl or 7-5 and lose bowl) for Daz to keep his job. Personally I don't see that happening.

More likely is that BC beats UVA and UConn and goes 4-8. A win against Syracuse is possible so 5-7 is within reach but that still gets Daz a pink slip.

Jarmond will have a decision to make after the NC State game when we are likely 3-7. Does he drop Daz, signal change is coming and hope that an interim face can create some excitement or does he stick with Daz, who will be a dead man walking, and risk stumbling to a 3-9 finish.

I think that choice will come down to whether Daz still has backing of the players and despite all the outside criticism he still seems to have player support from what I hear. I think that support will wear out if they lose 3 of the next 4 games.

My prediction is that Daz gets let go at the end of the season unless he loses to UConn and if so he gets canned and we have one game with an interim coach and we get an early start on the search.

knucklehead said...

Section D,
You are a loser and hypocrite.

knucklehead said...

It depends on who is available and wants the BC job. There will plenty of douchebags knocking on the door asking for the job but the doors AD needs to hire the right person. He cannot afford to fuck this up. The sole criteria he SHOULD be judged on is the success of his hires. We have money, we have TV time when we deserve it and we have the potential to be good again. He needs to make the right hire. I don't care if it is after this season or after next. He needs to look at who will be available the next two off seasons and make a judge ment.

knucklehead said...

What is accuracy rate of the ESPN tool?

knucklehead said...

Butch Jones would be good for BC. He is intense which would be good for our blue collar recruits.

Brian Kelly is the best fit for BC but he won't be available unless ND falls apart this season.

Georgia Eagle said...

I agree with all of the above. No one, except rah-rah Atl, will accept dazoshit back.

curranac said...

We're taking our family down to the Louisville game, so I'll share an update. Worth noting, tickets were $13 apiece online for those who think BC is unique in attendance issues or soft ticket demand. Plus, the Cardinals are the only game in town.

Lamar Jackson will put up 500 yards of offense and personally score 5-7 TDs. We know our offense can't score more than 10 points, so going 3 and out every possession is going to give Jackson too many chances. Landry and crew will make some plays, but not enough. I'm glad Reid has decided that Landry doesn't need to take half the snaps off in the first half, so he's rested when we're down 20 points in the 4th qtr.

The fact that possibly beating UVA might give our coach one more year, speaks to how far things have fallen. Perhaps our debate team beating the Cavaliers would be a respectable victory, but in football???

CT said...

Butch Jones? No, no, and no.

Georgia Eagle said...

The rah-rahs are in denial and still refuse to admit spaz and Daz have driven this program into rock bottom. We are the laughing stock of the nation and only a complete purge and reboot are in order.
Talk of a 6-6 season is total, fucking insanity.

TGS said...

Some stats even Khead can understand.
From 1901 - 2008, BC win had a respectable winning percentage of .594.
Since the beginning of the Spaz/Daz era in 2009, the winning percentage is a putrid .414.
It truly has been a lost decade.

knucklehead said...

The library is open late eh TGS.

Section D said...

Georgia,

everyone wants Daz gone. EVERYONE. ATL just posted a few days ago to Fire Daz.


i'm just looking to salvage anything out of this season - which in truth is 99% lost....the 1% is could we go 5-7 and maybe get a shit bowl . i'd just like to see a few ACC wins .. that whole fan thing...ya' know hope

knucklehead said...

You have any input CT? Or just going to be a critic. Another big mouth with zero contribution.

knucklehead said...

(S)T(D)GS, I understand what you wrote. I don't trust it to be accurate.

dtrain1234 said...

5-7 will get us a bowl game. Daz will be back for one more make or break year

CT said...

This topic has already been talked about in previous threads. Jones has improved recruiting but that's coming off of Derek Dooley. Not hard. His press conferences this year give Daz a run for his money. He's had some issues with recruits, but you'll have those at UT. He's 14-20 in the SEC. And his division is poop.

I mentioned Moorhead (PSU) and Elliott out of Clemson, who has a great story. His bio would get players to fight ISIS barehanded if he asked them to.

Teddy Errico said...

I'm not sure why in the last day or so we go from talking about firing The Bully, to what is he doing to win and save his job. My perspective is simple. He should be fired. I'm not rehashing the reasons. I've been for 5 years, since he the day he was hired, doing this futile exercise. There are 100 reasons to fire him. Now, I am going to trust the AD and his experience. A firing now, outside of getting caught doing lines, aka Miami Dolphins Line Coach, is not realistic. We have a new AD. Lets trust him and why he was hired. If on December 1, Addazio is still in residence at Chestnut Hill, regardless of the outcome of the remaining games, we can all clear Fall Saturdays forever. Thank God I am a Jets fan, cause both weekend days will be free of bad football!

knucklehead said...

Moorehead is a stiff. Nobody from Clemson is taking the BC job.

knucklehead said...

I don't trust anyone hired by Father Leahy when it comes to job performance.

Bravesbill said...

Why does everyone think BC actually has a shot against UVA? UVA absolutely crushed Boise St on the blue turf earlier this year.

Anne Marie Gahring said...

There is no scenario in which one of the five worst coaches in I A should continue to

BEFOUL the HEIGHTS. The time has long past when this LOSER should DEPART.

Even Meta and Pete can't dull the pain of listening to this travesty.

Insanity doing the same thin over and over and expecting a different outcome.

ANY NEWS ON CHRISTIAN and Basket ball ?

Napolean Bonaparte said...

Basketball won two ACC games last year out of 18 And 6 out of 54 over the last three years. They are doing a great job keeping pace with football's 6 ACC wins over three years. And they did this in spite of having to play so many more games. Keep the faith Anne Marie.

BCAlum2000 said...

What about Brent Venables from Clemson? The guy is not going to be head coach at Clemson due to Sweeney's age. I am sure he will get other calls (I have to imagine he has already received plenty), but getting a head coaching job at a school like BC, that was recently the best defense in the country, and could afford him a bump of salary from $1.7mm to $2.5-$3mm, could be intriguing to him. I think he could be a great hire.

CT said...

I'm guessing when Saban retires, Swinney will be up for that job, leaving Venables for CU. Just my $.02.

But I'm sure Knuckle can chime in here with another classy response. Really looking forward to that. The blog suffers without his ubiquitous presence.

knucklehead said...

No CT. You are an asshole. You get as classy as you give.

Tony Abardo said...

BC has such a loser fan base. There are some people that are hoping to get to 6 wins so they can get to a crap bowl game.

working rich said...

I've been a BC FOOTBALL fan since my freshmen year in HS 1964 .
One of the teachers ran a trip to West Point. I asked how could you get tickets for the army BC game ?
His answer was simple - BC is not that good so they don't fill up the stadium. . But we went to the game.

Opening game 1968 BC -NAVY . UNDER NEW COACH Yukica BC kicked butt49-15 Joe Marzetti at QB. SEEMED A NEW ERA.
Enthusiastic assistants like Carmichael and the computer guy.
Tremendous spirit.
Tom Obrien solid coach, winning coach.
Had to deal with GDF and was lowest paid coach in ACC

NOW THIS MORASS

Never met daz, seems ok except for boring offense , BORING
Can't believe they lost gane to GT in Dublin last year.
Probably not the greatest coach but all you kids better stop hoping that he will ever open up the offense.
Never, never, never gonna happen.
Program can hope for mediocrity at best

Big Jack Krack said...

Working Rich - Do you remember much about that game at West Point? That was my Freshman year at BC (can't believe this is my 50th Reunion Year - how did it get here so fast?)

We had beaten Syracuse (recent National Champ and with All Americans Jim Nance and Floyd Little in the same backfield) on a last second Hail Mary type pass at Alumni;

lost at Tennessee 16 to 14 (27 first downs to 7 for UT) and traveled to West Point to play a perennially tough Army Team.

Down 19 to 0, Glenn Foley's Dad, Ed Foley came in for Larry Marzetti (Joe's older brother) and rallied the Eagles for 2 quick touchdowns. He was driving the team for a third winning TD through his passing prowess, but time ran out. Perhaps BC could have managed the clock a little better. But we scared the hell out of Army - and it was obvious to me that a strong passer was an asset for sure.

But listening to that game on the radio was so exciting for me (disappointing result for sure) that I was proud to be Maroon and Gold forever.

We could play with the big boys. That was the beginning of BC's slow progress up the ladder in major Eastern football.

And now we are lower than whale sh$t, and that's on the bottom of the ocean.

But I can still hope and I'm still Maroon and Gold - but I'm quiet and embarrassed - and far from proud.

working rich said...

Thanks jack knack.
Roots run deep.