Sunday, December 24, 2017

BC-Iowa preview

As much as I want an expanded playoff, and as much as I think playing in empty stadiums in random small cities days before Christmas is silly, I have to say, I always get excited about a BC bowl game. I enjoy the fresh matchups against teams we don't often play. I am a sucker for the neutral site aspect and the bowls forcing some sort of local flavor on the game. Finally, it is our last glimpse of BC football for nine months. Even when things are not great, some BC Football is better than no BC Football.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
As of Friday, BC did not officially sellout its ticket allotment for this game, but the school came pretty close. I think the primary reason tickets sales went well is the location. Outside of Boston, the New York area is our largest alumni population. With the demise of the Big East and not playing Rutgers or Army on a regular basis, we don't have a ton of big sporting events in the area. Perhaps Jarmond should look into an occasional neutral site game at the Meadowlands. If it is against a desirable opponent (Notre Dame, Penn State, even Syracuse), I think the tickets would sell.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stop the run. This game will be very dependent or Merritt and Smith clogging up the middle. Iowa runs a lot of zones, so disrupting the line and stopping the cut backs is key.
2. Get big plays from someone other than Dillon. When the offense did explode, it wasn't just Dillon. Both Smiths had sweeps for scores. White had big plays. There are playmakers on the offense. We just need to get them the ball at the right time.
3. Don't waste drives with long field goals. We know how this goes on a cold, sloppy baseball field. I hope Addazio thinks of most possessions as 'four-down territory.'

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 1-2 in bowl games at BC
-- Ferentz is 6-8 in bowl games at Iowa
-- BC is 14-11 in bowl games
The current line is BC+2.5

Factoid
While BC has played all the Big Ten East schools, our history with the Big Ten West teams is limited. BC has not played games against Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue, Nebraska or Wisconsin.

Scoreboard Watching
During Bowl season, the most important game for all ACC teams is the Sugar Bowl. We need Clemson to win. I don't get any real satisfaction from watching our conference foes winning, but seeing ACC teams in the National Championship is a nice recruiting tool and point of validation.

I hope to see...
BC get up early and take Iowa out of the game mentally. Iowa fans don't want to be at this game and based on their body language, Iowa players don't want to be there either. Establishing an early lead could take away all momentum.

BC is in trouble if...
Wade doesn't get off the easy passes. As explosive as Dillon can be and as solid as the Oline has been, the offense only opens up if Wade is somewhat of a passing threat.

Bottom Line
I've been confident about this matchup since it was announced. I know the similar styles might make for boring football, but it was explosive teams that gave us trouble. If Iowa wants to grind it out, that will play to our strengths. I think BC will move the ball on the ground, force a few key turnovers and win this one with some cushion.
Final Score: BC 28, Iowa 17

12 comments:

dietmrfizz said...

I know I shouldn't be this confident, but I think we blow out Iowa. The team has gelled the second half of the season and we'd be in the Top 25 if Brown didn't get hurt against NC State.

Wade is plenty capable and will benefit from the extra practices.

Also Dillon.

Craig Yeaster said...

I'm expecting BC to blow them out too. Big question is if Iowa hits double digits

The Tall One said...

Out of curiosity - anyone know what the ticket sales have been like for BC compared to Iowa since the last blog post on the topic?

John said...

And to extend from the Tall One, how about all ticket sales? On a cold evening/night, will the attendance reach anything close to 30k?

Dixie -I will check out the St. Regis, but probably not for brunch. I'm playing Princeville Makai (Robert Trent Jones Course) on Thursday. 🙂

John said...

Just doodling and thinking that (as a Boston sportswriter used the say years ago ..... Gillooly?) We have come a long way since losses to ND, WF, Clemson and VT - so long that we are now (almost) cocky in thinking we will control and dominate Iowa, a team that put up 55 points on Ohio State.

I hope our fans who are confident in a victory are right! I am very optimistic, but I leave the confidence factor to the younger fans!

Go BC - beat Iowa.

Big Jack Krack aka John

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BC 86 said...

Can't wait to get to the game, nice to have BC football to cheer for this time of year. Merry Christmas and GO BC!

Georgia Eagle said...

Okay, kids. Finish opening up your presents then join me on the couch Wednesday for pizza, beer and BC football.

JBQ said...

Since this is a BC blog in Atlanta, let's mention the turmoils and troubles of our favorite Santa with a helmet. I am a big "Mattie Ice" fan and his success has really curtailed with the Falcons since their loss of their offensive coordinator. He was replaced by Steve Sarkisian of usc connection.---Last year, Matt had 12 drops for the entire season. This year going into Sunday's game, there were 26 drops. On Sunday, there were numerous drops which included the hilarious "butt interception".---This is quite a comedown for the MVP of the NFL who was within a whisker of a Super Bowl win. The extended entertainment halftime cooled them off and the "not so lovable" 41 year old won for the fifth time. He is throwing the same but the timing is way off.---This tells BC a lot. The Eagles have wonderful coordinators in Loeffler and Reid. They win if the Dazzler stays out of the way. He didn't do that at home with NC St and there is now a blot on an otherwise great season.

Georgia Eagle said...

JBQ, I live outside of Atlanta and I totally agree with you concerned the drop-off of Matt Ryan's production this year. He, and the team, have been quite disappointing.

Georgia Eagle said...

Concerning

dixieagle said...

GE and JBQ... I'm with you. I'm still not over the SB loss; that will take a few years.

I know that plenty of Falcons fans are really down on Ryan, but the drops and many of the INTs haven't been his fault. It's as if they all have butterfingers. Not sure if it's Sark, SB letdown, or what. I had a bad feeling during the pre-season, and it's proven accurate.

Jack - enjoy that golf game. We have several RTJ courses in Alabama, including here in Mobile.

I frankly have no idea what to expect against Iowa; the 55 pts. against OSU make me nervous, but I know we have some good talent. Let's hope they underestimate us and our guys are up for the game.

Go Eagles!!!