Monday, June 04, 2018

A look at win totals predictions

We know that Vegas is not real excited about BC's upcoming season. The over/under on wins is 5.5 at most sports books. Vegas Insider has all the ACC team's listed, so you can see how BC compares.

Boston College -- 5.5
Clemson -- 11
Duke -- 6.5
Florida State -- 7.5
Georgia Tech -- 5.5
Louisville -- 7
Miami -- 10
North Carolina -- 5
North Carolina State -- 7
Pitt -- 5.5
Syracuse -- 6
Virginia -- 5
Virginia Tech -- 8.5
Wake Forest -- 6

Basically this predicts a last place finish in the division and a losing record. I guess I am more optimistic than they are. Some might think the schedule is tough, but I see it as a typical BC schedule (so manageable). Let's hope they are wrong.

24 comments:

TheFive said...

Wow. We do not have an easy schedule, but this is the most complete team we've had in an awfully long time. Fewer than 7 wins would not be acceptable.

I would guess, though, that Vegas looks at our stats and says this is a poorly coached team that will be in a series of one possession games, the majority of which they will loose because they purposefully minimize their own odds through 1950s coaching tactics.

Knucklehead said...

They are looking at the loss of talent to the NFL, the question able QB and the season riding on one offensive player who undoubtedly will get cheapshotted in the Wake Forest game - dirty self righteous punks - as Montel Harris and setting a low line.

Vegas is wrong here as they are 7/10 times about BC season totals.

Worst case scenario with Dillon is 6 wins. Even if he only plays 10 games we will win 6.

John said...

It's all b.s. let's use it for motivation.

.... And we're going to hit you hard in the 1st quarter, and we're going to hit you hard in the 2nd quarter, and we're going to hit you hard in the 3rd quarter - and in the 4th quarter, we are going to hit you the hardest! We are going to hit you REALLY HARD! Head Coach Tom Coughlin.

Take a TC approach, HC Addazio, and change it up from the perceptions noted by The five.

Go BC in 2018!

mod34b said...

5.5, is within likely range.

here is my projection from last month.

odds of winning summed

Umass 1.0
Holy Cross 1.0
Temple .7

Purdue .6
Wake .5
Syra .7
NCSU .5

Lville .4
Miami .4
FSU .3
VT .2
Clem .2

early win projection = 6 wins +/- 1

Knucklehead said...

Change the Temple, Wake, NC State and Louisville numbers up.05 do the math and then you get the correct result. Idiot.

NEDofSavinHill said...

BC is a very solid bet for the over. They were 6-3 in their last nine games against talented teams i.e. Iowa, Nc St., FSU, Louisville and VT. They scored 30 a game. Miami is a good under wager. They lost their last three and won two games on the last play. 2. Wake and NC St. are the big games this year.

mod34b said...

knuckle, you know this is a rough estimate right?

mod34b said...

its not intended to be highly precise. Its not a math exercise.

And, yes, You can adjust any number you want based in your own estimates. . If you think BC well smash Purdue, change it to a .9 (90% chance of a win).

So settle down. nought with the insults - even though you are a dick, totally stupid a schmuck and a fool and everyone wishes you would disappear form this blog. Ok. chill dickhead.

Georgia Eagle said...

Don't forget. Dazoshit's coaching costs us two games every year.

BCEagles2014 said...

Not surprised by these predictions, but I firmly believe they are dead wrong here. I think Vegas is highly overestimating the sting of losing Landry. Landry barely played at all last season, so it's not like we're missing all that much year-to-year.

This will be the deepest BC team under Addazio. As a reminder, Strachan and Baker are both returning this year after being granted medical redshirts. My prediction is BC will win 8 games. Good enough for BC fans looking for a glimmer of hope, but not enough to make us relevant on the national stage.

Knucklehead said...

You are dumb. Get it.

Knucklehead said...

5.5, +/-. Seems like you are turning football into a math exercise. If you are going to do that then do it right.

NYCEagle said...

Bet the house on the over. UMASS, HC, Temple, and Syracuse are guaranteed wins. We should win at least 1 of 2 between Wake and Purdue on the road. I think NC State and Louisville will both take noticeable steps back this year based on the talent that left each program. I also think we steal 1 from FSU, Miami, Clemson, or VT. My best guess is either Miami at home or FSU on the road. That gets us to 8 wins

mod34b said...

I guess you just don’t understand the method or concepts of probability and estimating. If you went to BC you would know. You #%|#^*!#^#*€|!!

Knucklehead said...

Stupid.

mod34b said...

Yes you are

curranac said...

I blame title IX for this Vegas win projection. If we had more sweaty guys in spandex singlets on campus Vegas would definitely increase our projected win total.

Knucklehead said...

Use the lines for each game an then give a projection. Instead of using your own prediction on each game and providing and then reproviding your stupid math. Just say they are going to 5 games and maybe 6.

+/-. Stupid dork.

Tony Abardo said...

Amazing that people are so excited about the prospect of 8 wins.

mod34b said...

U just don’t get it. Can’t get it. If you were a bc grad you’d be able to comprehend. Brains matter.

Knucklehead said...

Tool.

Knucklehead said...

You would be amazed.

eagletix said...

So, it is Vegas so bet the mortgage on the over, if you are confident Sarge won't go chicken livered in two winnable games. Remember, no Pasqualoni to keep him from in game brain farts.

JBQ said...

If the Daz doesn't ride Dillon into the ground and has a diversified offense, then there could be big surprises in store. If McDonald is as good as I think that he is and Brown is healthy, then there could be "joy on the mountain".