Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Thoughts on Connelly's BC preview

SB Nation's Bill Connelly posted his annual, thorough and statistically based BC preview. It is well worth the read and he is pretty optimistic about BC's future. However, he doesn't see BC breaking through its seven-win ceiling this year. I agree with most of what Connelly writes with the exception of these few things.

His optimism about the Offense
I don't think the midseason explosion we saw in the offense last year was an aberration, but I also don't think it will be the new norm. If you look at what Addazio and Loeffler have accomplished together and apart, they are rarely producing elite, efficient offenses. There are a few spikes, but more often than not (including last year) they are in the lower third of college offenses. I think we be better with Dillon and an healthy line. I do expect more from Brown. Yet I don't think we will ever be a Top 30 offense. Talent can change things, but Addazio (and Loeffler's) track record says that the way they prepare, teach and manage has a clear ceiling.

His worries about depth
Connelly mentions a few times that if BC "stays healthy..." with an emphasis on the D. I am not worried about our depth. To his credit Addazio has upgraded the talent level and seemingly every replacement the past two years has been nearly as good as the guy who was starting. Avoiding injuries is important but I can't see any player changing the course of the season. We lost Landry for most of last year and still played well on that side of the ball.

His view of the schedule
He worries that BC could start out hot and play well but would still suffer due to the difficulty of the final stretch of the schedule. I don't share his fear. Only Clemson has established a consistency that makes their game a longshot. All the other teams have been beaten recently (Louisville, FSU) or have some significant new challenges (new coach, new coordinator, new QB). They are plenty of winnable games in the second portion of the schedule.

21 comments:

mod34b said...

Connelly also uses the sum of probabilities approach to predict (project?) BC’s win total

He projects BC at 5.7 wins. - More 6-6 crap we are lucky??


His break down


UMass. .73
hC .98
@wske .37
@purdue .46
Temple .69
@NCSU .37
LV .44
Miami.26
@VT .28
Clem .14
@FSU .27
Syr. .66

His wake prediction seems wrong. I think BC is .55 for that one

Miami LV and FSU seem to get big edges based on Reputation alone - all those game will be closer.

But who knows? 5? 6? 7? 8? Wins

Should be an exciting season

Georgia Eagle said...

7 wins and dazoshit is toast.

mod34b said...

I agree Georgia

but given BC has the Mouse for AD, don't bet on it

Daz at 6-6 with a bowl win (7-6) is coming back.. he's got a young team with promise.... Mouse won't take action.

BCBCBC said...

Mod34b hates Jarmond because he is African American. He has said as much.

mod34b said...

BCBCBC. you're a lying scumbag... you prove it once again. Go get your kicks elsewhere.. I suspect this is really you-know-who

and of course Mr Magoo/Wizard of Oz who runs this blog does not give a shit if there is outrageous defamation...

NYCEagle said...

I take issue with his chances for Wake, NC State, Louisville, Miami and VT. Wake wont have a starting QB for God’s sake. We will be in every one of those games. I think we go 3-2 in that stretch. Also we demolished FSU last year and they’re in the first year with a new coach. I think that’s more a 50/50 game than most realize

mod34b said...

Whoa guys, I need to apologize for my earlier comments - to BCBCBC and to Atl. I lost it there for a bit. I think we can all agree, go Eagles!

Knucklehead said...

Mod, stop crying. Nobody cares.

Joseph said...

Mod seems to lose it quite frequently. Why, Mod? This is just talk and means little in the grand scheme.

Georgia Eagle said...

BCBC , is Jarmond above criticism because he is black? I don't know where he came up with the Mouse nickname, but Mod is correct in predicting the AD won't fire Dazoshit if he goes 7-6 AGAIN.

downtown_resident said...

Connelly admits the projection may be too negative due to the way BC closed the season offensively and the number of players returning from injury.

I think we would be very disappointed if our offense ends up 82nd nationally, but that's where the S&P+ projects BC due to the horrendous start to 2017. The projection also apparently doesn't take into account the key injury returnees (Strachan, Richardson, Baker, and possibly E. Johnson).

mod34b said...

Knucle-douche is at it again. he made a fake mod34b (11:54) and a fake BCBCBC

WhAT a complete douche bag.... go to your own college board

Joseph. fuck you (for any reason)

Georgia Eagle said...

Brother Mod, let me recommend a good single malt scotch. Take a breath. You have friends on here.

mod34b said...

WTF Georgia Eagle! He's the fake Mod, not me! 4:17pm mod is fake! Probably the board puppetmaster, the absentee landlord Atl, trying to drive us out!

Georgia Eagle said...

I know. But as long as atl refuses to assert any leadership or administrative control and standards over his own site there is little we can do .

mod34b said...

Totally dude. You and I are on the same wavelength. That's why we're great jobuds.

JBQ said...

@mod: At least, he's a "field mouse". Don't forget that he came from Ohio State where his expertise was on creating schedules. The Dazzler has connections to Ohio State and Meyer. That is why a tie (6-6) will be decided in his favor. His dentist wife from Columbus agreed to fix the red head's teeth for free.---Nevertheless if the "Italian wonder" will let all of the coordinators and their support staff do their job, then everyone should have a happy New Year's. If he goes 6-6, he should be fired and if William P. Leahy won't fix the problem created by the extension, then he should go as well.--- This is year one of a three year extension after 5 lackluster seasons at 2.5 mill per. No one argues with letting the cards fall. However if a "Coconut Grove" emerges and probably not with Holy Cross, then he won't last the season.

mod34b said...

Good idea Georgia. Thank you

“Since December 2007”

Joseph said...

This has gone wierdsville. If you don't like the way the blog is run then run. As fast and as far as you can.

I am not as into all the importance of football as some, but I really like to watch games and go to alumni when possible.

So if you can contribute do so. If not silence is not so bad. Sports are great. Loyalty to BC is great. But, not quite as great as some would have it.

Knucklehead said...

Mod, You are a sick puppy.

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