As I tweeted when Syracuse won, BC controls its own destiny. Win out and we are in the ACC Championship. Win that and we have a pretty good argument for the Playoffs. Seems simple, right? If you are on social media, you will see lots of people are playing the "what if" game. Let's break it down and also look at other things on the table.
Beat Virginia Tech...
If BC wins this weekend and Clemson holds their own against Louisville, the BC-Clemson matchup would likely be a primetime game on an ESPN network and also have an outside chance as being the location for Gameday! It would be one of the few battles of ranked teams that weekend. It would be a chance to have an ACC location for Gameday and return to BC after a long absence. Gameday remains an incredible tool for selling the program and would be another validation of the season. It would also provide energy to the home atmosphere that has been lacking in the years since our last Gameday.
Then beat Clemson...
At 8-2 and having just knocked out an elite team, BC would probably get close to Top 10 in the rankings. There is still a lot of bottlenecking in the polls, but more teams will lose in the next two weeks and very few two-loss teams would have such a win. Beating Clemson would also give BC the head-to-head tiebreaker in the division standings.
Win out the regular season...
Once you've knocked off Clemson and won in Blacksburg, you've done the hard part. BC would be a heavy favorite over FSU. Then it is Syracuse at home Thanksgiving Weekend with everything on the line. What could go wrong there?
Win the ACC Championship...
If BC really does run the table, we would also be a favorite in the ACC Championship. Win that and we are guaranteed a major bowl -- the first since Flutie. But at this point, we would also be in the playoff discussion. If you are following the Playoff release and the computer projections, you will see BC is in the low 20s. That basically means it could happen, but would be the longest of long shots. Because of the human element, I don't think a two-loss BC team would ever be included. But there is only one way to find out!
Now the first step is winning this weekend.
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44 comments:
ATL, love the optimism and no question the team has talent. Last week was definitely a step in the right direction. But do we have the head coach to pull this off?
We saw what happened last time we were ranked and went on the road — we got distracted by it. Winning at Va Tech is always a tall order. Rankings and what ifs mean nothing if we don’t execute as we should.
This team can do it. Let’s just hope Daz keeps cool, stays prepared and has them focused to play one game at a time right now. Getting by the Hokies at Lane Stadium this weekend can provide a huge boost — for the team, the fans, and our coaching staff.
The huge swings between any win or loss you see on these blogs is comical. Miami was a good solid win - but as usual everyone gets carried away. Par for the course for BC will be to go down to Lane Stadium and get blown out - we all know that. Then everything will be back to the sky is falling normality mode. If things do not go according to script, then VT must really be bad or maybe, just maybe Addazio has gotten it figured out. All I'm saying is keep on your seatbelts. Seeing is believing.
We haven’t won a road game in a hostile environment this year (no, Wake Forest on a Thursday afternoon was not a hostile environment). Let’s hope our guys have learned something since the Purdue debacle and the NC State loss.
There’s a good chance we’re favored in every game with the exception of Clemson. Going 3-1 is not outrageous and if by some miracle we knock off Clemson we’d probably get a New Years 6 bowl. Clemson usually has one dud game a year. Why not on the road in a chilly Chestnut Hill? This is the latest Clemson has ever played AT BC in the time we’ve been a member of the ACC
ATL believes in the tooth fairy.
If the Cuse won their next three, Wake, Louisville and ND they would be in the top 10. They are currently #19. The Saturday after Thanksgiving could pit two top 10 teams vying for the ACC title assuming your scenario. But let's wait and beat VT this weekend. Then we can start dreaming. There were 5 ACC teams ranked in the top 25. Four in the Atlantic division. Three normal powerhouses Miami, VT and FSU were mot there.
I like optimism and always have.
But, although fun, my problem with this post is that it takes away the focus on what's at hand - the next game, and the next game only.
Like the players and coaching staff, we fans need to stay focused on the Virginia Tech Hokies - period.
And like a golfer who is shooting a great round, maybe even his/her best ever - don't tell me what my score is. I don't want to know - I'm in my zone and I'm in my focus.
Let's go get a big win, Coach Addazio and staff. Give these guys a game plan to win!!!!
Go BC - beat Virginia Tech!
Ned, wouldn't it be something if Syracuse ruined ND's season in Yankee Stadium?
BC can't beat Clemson.I believe Syracuse is a toss up, but I can envision Eric Dunghe eating the BC secondary alive. VT is a WTF loss in the making as Addazio goes turtle up in a hostile stadium. That leaves FSU who look like they've mailed it in. That brings us back to the Addazio ceiling of 7-6 and another undeserved extension. Book it. We are what we are under Addazio, which is underachievers once again.
BJK
Bingo. We are 4-7 at Lane Stadium. The wins have been nail biters. The losses have mostly been blowouts. One game at a time.
Exciting week to see Eagles in Playoff race. Let’s enjoy it and have fun with it
VT tough matchup but seems team will be ready. Dillon & Allen are two best players in stadium so you have a good chance anytime you have the best players
Brown feeling more confident with knee and starting to use his legs have made a huge difference to offense. Loeffler wants this one bad so I am sure he has some tricks up his sleeve.
Can’t wait to settle in late Saturday afternoon for what should be (hope) is a great game and win!
Do you have a point Mod?
If 4-7 is correct it is not bad.
Look for a home job NC State style.
Eagle Tix you may want to give David Hale of ESPN a follow on Twitter. According to the disrupted dropbacks stat (INT, Pass break up, tipped/batted ball, sack)/total pass plays BC is number 2 in the NATION behind Michigan. Enough with the self-hate please, especially when it’s not even based in any kind of factual evidence
BC D is good this year, play in Patriots mold
Good in red zone and create turnovers. Yards against don’t matter. Points do. Some horrible special teams play early in year (and vs Miami kickoffs) and bad turnovers have had them given up points because of terrible field position. Even vs NC State they only gave up 28 and offense was a joke in 1st half
BC D is good enough this year to win big games. They have NFL players (Allen, Ray, Cheevers, Harris, Denis) and okay depth. LB’s are playing better recently which has resulted in much better play.
Have said this every week, every game. BC ability to win comes down to Brown’s play and aggressive offensive play calling. Simple as that
According to 538, BC has a 3% chance of winning out. If they do win out, they have a 45% chance of making the CFP. Meaning overall BC currently has close to a 1.5% chance of making the CFP.
I was stupid enough to play the Mega Millions, that means I'm stupid enough to think there's a chance!
It's as simple as ABC. The key is AB. So far, he is just not consistent enough to "climb the Heights". Some of his throws are major league as evidenced with a low throw near the ground for an important first down. He needs to throw over the top and watch some Aaron Rodgers films. The dropping of his arm and "slingin hash" just won't cut it against the big boys from Clemson.
NYC eagle
BC ranks 49th nationally in pass defense efficiency and 6th best in ACC allowing over 214 yards passing per game. They are no where near 2nd nationally in pass defense or scoring defense for that matter. Against Clemson and Syracuse, they will have to play solid pass defense or be on the field all day....we'll see. But I love the lengths you went to paint that lipstick on a pig.
In all seriousness, I think eagletix has it right. Miami wasn't going to play that well in the cold. Clemson is talented enough to survive. I think Addazio will blow it at VT. I do think BC will beat FSU.
'Cuse might have trouble in the cold as a dome team, but they're well equipped to exploit BC's D if they handle the weather.
This doesn't feel like the Coughlin teams, nor like 2007. 7-6 is Addazio's sweet spot.
The point is BC’s defense is producing disruptive plays at an elite level. You can’t do that without exceptional talent. We’re 15th in the nation at Defense Disrupted Play Rate (int/def + PBU + batted/tipped pass + sack/tfl/no gain)/total plays. The top teams in that category are Miami Clemson Michigan West Virginia and Auburn, which all meet the eye test. BC gave up big plays sporadically early on, mostly as a result of young players in the secondary getting exposed (Sebastian) and issues up the middle due to a lack of depth on the DLine (Karafa and the underclassmen). Our defense has really started to gel the last several weeks, giving up no points in the second half to Louisville or Miami. NC State scored only 28 on us with a first round pick at QB and that was even with our incompetent offense not being able to stay on the field for 3 quarters. The play of Cheevers, Harris, Torres, and even Sebastian have improved noticeably. The same goes for Richardson, Strachan, and especially McDuffie at linebacker. Allen and Ray seem to have kicked it up a gear as well. Addazio hinted that perhaps some players were thinking too much early on instead of playing fast and with aggression. I think he may be right. Long story short, this defense has the potential to be significantly better than the stats you threw out there would suggest
And the other point is that “fans” like you and ObserverCollege have been pessimistic about BC football for so long you’re actually on the verge of delusion in the opposite direction of ATL. And you’re depriving yourself of enjoying a team that actually has the talent to compete at the top levels of CFB. Sure they’ve had to work out some kinks, but this is not a 7-6 roster. This team has 5-7 projected draft picks. You have to go back to the mid 80s to find the last BC team that had 5 draft picks in one class.
LOL
YOU FREAKING JINX!!!!!!!
kidding atl, we all love you, and we all know that you cant jinx something that will never happen
But it's still BC under Daz, much will be revealed after the Hokies game. Win that and the outsized optimism and dreaming can start.
Mod, a shit bowl and maybe 8 wins. Maybe.
BC is having a good year and have kids that make it easy to cheer for
We have 4 great games to end the season and 2 at home. #2 team in country and our football rival that is very good. Both games should have Alumni jumping.
Enjoy it while it lasts and stop being so pessimistic. We have all been BC fans for a long time and pretty sure know what’s coming but going to try to enjoy being ranked and in national conversation this late in year as long as possible
Hey Mod 34, shut the F&*^ up you racist, ignorant piece of sh*t.
Nice prediction on the Miami game, moron.
Yo, you crushing it?
Shabby1011 is killin' it!!!
I know this team has some very good talent and a lot of heart, but Addazio is a wild card. I've been at this way too long to get my hopes up too much, though I believe that they could and should win at least a couple of the upcoming games. Right now, I'm concentrating only on VT, which always scares me. I would so love to hear "And Lane Stadium goes silent!" again.
Mod - Did you watch BC - Syracuse last game of 2017? 42-14 and wasn’t that close. Barbers totally overrated, look at their schedule, haven’t beaten anyone minus State which was at home.
Look at my posts in past. I’m as critical as anyone on Daz when warranted. Purdue was embarrassing and I went to NCSt, first half play calling was fireable.
That said, BC is 6-2, 22 in country and a bunch of fun games ahead. We have studs on team we get to enjoy, watch and cheer for : Dillon, Allen, Ray, Cheevers, Denis, Harris etc. Further have a bunch of local kids Dillon, Denis, Strachan, Lindstrom etc that are great. Let’s enjoy it for half a week.
If they lose out or even 2 or 3 then I’ll be with everyone else to be critical. That said I think they can win 3 and Clemson game is going to be great. Trevor Lawrence has never PLAYED in a football game in weather colder then 55-60 degrees. It’s gonna come into play.
However all that matters is VT. VT HAS to win and BC HAS to win. Fuente is superior coach but struggling currently and BC has better players. Brown’s recent refound ability to run and Loeffler desire to win are two big keys to watch closely.
Go Eagles
great column
I can assure you Shabby, Lawrence has played in plenty of games colder than 55 degrees.
What planet do our fans come from?
It’s actually kind of funny to read these comments after a win. Maybe they follow the tone of the post. I think ATL was through a bottle of wine when he wrote this one.
Mod’s stupid probabilities have been that for a long time. Nobody invites him to parties. He’s too busy checking updates on this blog to see if he’s gained any other fan other than Georgia Eagle, who chimes in pretty consistently right after him. Don’t know who that guy is, but I can assure you that I am the only Georgia Eagle whose opinion matters. The original ATL Eagle.
And look! BCBCBC loves Mod! Does he remember the glory days when Mod wasn’t posting? Maybe he got paroled.
At the end of the day, Brown is a one-read dude who cannot excel without Dillon. Brown is the ceiling, not Dillon.
As usual most commenters on this blog shift from Addazio blew the game if we lose to the team played well if we win. I am not fan of Daz as a game day coach. He doesn’t seem to be very creative, he becomes ultra conservative if we get a lead and his clock management is baffling. Our best performance seems to come when he lets his coordinators have more autonomy.
That said, a big part of being a head coach is motivating the team, creating a positive culture, recruiting, fundraising and dealing with the media. In these areas I think Daz has more ability.
VT is a huge game and should be the only focus right now. If we win we can start talking about how good the season might be. If we lose then there is not much to talk about. Go Eagles!
A bit of exaggeration but he grew up in Clarksville GA, it’s 70 there today. It may snow next Saturday at Alumni. It will be a factor
But again who cares, this Saturday is all that matters
STL_Eagle said it well GET OUT OF THE WAY let coordinators run game day !!!!!!!
Yes. If Dazoshit gets a lead and turtles, werew screwed.
Mod knows nothing, has no intuition, has a thing for Ryan Day and went to Rutgers.
Love the weather talk. The primary Miami receiver dropped 3 passes in the first half it he had gloves on. The cold had nothing to do with it.
The defensive coaches started rotating LBs last week. Good change in strategy and shift away from pigheaded useage of the same people. That was the difference defensively last week.
Would like to see a clean game for once. Even against Miami the FG kickers missed and the offense didn't score a TD in the second half on a drive starting on the Miami side of the 50.
Despite that they win. Will need a clean game against Clemson to win in a couple weeks.
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