Sunday, December 23, 2018

BC-Boise State preview

It feels like forever since BC last played. Since the Syracuse loss, we had the non-firing (despite the media speculation) and the luke-warm extension, plus the Early Signing Day. That's a lot of BC Football stuff without any games. Addazio has spent the majority of his time talking about development and the game being a reward, but let's not fool ourselves. He needs this win. It would give him the ever allusive 8th "W" and beating Boise would probably be one of his better wins in his BC tenure.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Playoff expansion talk is bound to become actual expansion. And that will likely kill or greatly reduce the number of bowl games. I think coaches and schools will still want them, but will it make sense to the TV partners? If the gravy train ends, that means BC will be home most holidays and the season will end in November. I guess I am fine with that. I like more football, but I don't think we can buy into the precious "development time" that comes with these bowl games. There is little evidence that any of these bowl practices ever made a difference for any of these BC teams the following year. The trade off for BC and fans like us, is that BC loses that development time and one more game, but we will probably make up for it with gobs and gobs of money (which will hopefully get to the players).

Three Simple Keys
1. Establish the jet sweeps early. BC got away from it in the second half of the season, but I think they are critical to helping open up things for Dillon between the tackles. If they are crowding the line, we need to spread them out one way or another.
2. Shut down their running game. This will be on our DTs and LBs. If Boise can't run, we got this.
3. No Special Teams problems. When we have bad Special Teams (fumbles and missed FGs) it all falls apart. When we play well, we win.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 1-3 in bowl games at BC
-- Harsin is 3-1 in bowl games at Boise
-- Boise State is 9-4 against Power 5 teams in bowl games
The current line is BC+2.5

Factoid
Boise won their only previous bowl game in Texas. BC is 1-1 in Texas-based bowls.

Scoreboard Watching
It is all about Clemson. It seems like every season is a search for conference validation, so that makes the Tigers the ACC's standard bearer. I don't dislike Dabo or Clemson, so I would probably be rooting for them anyway, but it helps BC's cause to be attached to the National Champion.

I hope to see...
Zach Allen have a big game. This will be his last as an Eagle and he deserves to go out with a bang. It seems like he will probably be a very high draft pick and he was part of numerous winning teams, but he doesn't have a true signature moment like some past BC greats. Why not have one against Boise?

BC is in trouble if...
There is defensive confusion. The Syracuse game was a mess. I can't remember that many defensive mistakes since Daz took over. If Boise creates the same confusion, this won't be close.

Overall
I don't feel great about this matchup. I didn't even like Addazio's body language addressing the media this week. I don't know if he doesn't like what he sees on tape or didn't like how the extension played out, but it doesn't scream confidence. I think we have more than enough talent to win, but we cannot get behind early. Begrudgingly, I will predict a BC win (because I always do), but this game won't be close. Whoever gets up early will run away with it.
Final Score: BC 31, Boise 14

26 comments:

Texmexeagle said...

I'm sorry, but I cannot bring myself to root for Clemson. I just can't root for anyone in the ACC that isn't named BC unless they play a school that I hate. I'll be pulling for Alabama since I hate Oklahoma as well.

BCNavy89 said...

Ever the optimist, BC wins but it ain’t easy and with a few WTFs

CT said...

Imagine if you did feel good about the game. BC by 54!

bceagle91 said...

ATL doesn't like this game, but he picks the Eagles to win by 17? We're slight underdogs and Addazio struggles in bowl games.

Tex, I can root for Clemson because if they get to the championship game, it's more money for the conference and therefore BC. Something tells me we'll need the extra money to fund a buyout for the coach that MJ inexplicably extended.

JBQ said...

@bceagle91: There have been reports that part of the extension is a "buyout clause". There are two years left on the original three year extension at 2.5 mill per. The heart of the team will be gone with the notables being Allen, Ray, and Harris plus a number of offensive linemen. I don't see the Dazzler surviving. --- The new qb signee may be very good as a four star recruit. I just don't think that he will be ready to take over as a freshman. Brown is horrible after his injury. The "handwriting is on the wall" and it sure looks like graffiti.

bceagle91 said...

@JBQ, I hope you're right about the buyout clause. With the 2 years left on the original contract and the 2 year extension, that's about $10 million BC would be otherwise responsible for. Between graduation losses and a more difficult out of conference schedule next year (that's not saying much), he'll be hard pressed to go 7-5 next year. Brown can't throw and doesn't run. Not a great combination for a QB.

To ATL and all the commenters here, Merry Christmas!

Georgia Eagle said...

Merry Christmas, my fellow Eagles.

mod34b said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Heights said...

Let’s crush it, my fellow Eagles!

dixieagle said...

I'll be pulling hard for BC, but don't feel good about this game.

Merry Christmas and a happy and healthy 2019 to all Eagles.

JBQ said...

Merry Christmas to the "jarheads" among us in the name of TOB and those that wanna be. I would encourage everyone to listen to Enya's "One Toy Soldier" at least once. With a bow to the "forum creator" who made something out of nothing with a smile for the hilarity of "mod" v "knucklehead".

Big Jack Krack said...

Merry Christmas everyone. To tell you the truth, I am torn between watching g this game a d rooting on our team, or playing golf and watching it later. Such a decision would never have had to be made in my days as a BC fan.

TEHC has really squashed my enjoyment of BC Football this year - a year with so much potential and expectation, with his STUPID offensive game plan and calls.

I am trying hard to get over it, but watching TEHC insanely leading our players to defeat has really gotten old.
Go BC players and coaching staff - throw off the shackles of TEHC (The Extended Head Coach).

Beat Boise State in the rain.

Big Jack Krack said...

I thought we had a chance to get to the Fiesta Bowl this year, or the Gator Bowl, or the Sun Bowl or the Belk Bowl.

Although TEHC tried to sell us on the idea of 5 bowls in 6 years, it's all bull sh!t.

We are better than the second lowest ACC Bowl tie in on Dec. 26th at 1:30pm Eastern. This is no slam on our opponent, who will kick our butt if we are not ready, playing with one hand tied behind our back and all.

5 bowls in 6 years, never getting past Dec. 27th.

TEHC thinks we're all suckers. We underachieved this year because of him.

40 to 5p runs up the middle and 10 passes short of the first down marker on 3rd down doesn't leave much chance to win from behind.

But that's our EHC.

Georgia Eagle said...

Guys, you are being way too polite referring to DAZOSHIT as TEHC.

Big Jack Krack said...

DAZOSHIT, SPAZADUFUS, DEFILDICKO, TRANYQUILL - We have had our share over 10 years.

We thought it would be beautiful this year. But, Oh Boy, we didn't know how STUPID our play calling could be.

Georgia Eagle said...

I hear you, Jack. This team had so much potential this year and Dazoshit just squandered it. But I'm being redundant.

Eagle Esquire said...

Books can be written on what Dazoshit doesn’t know.

DosBC said...

Zach Allen is not playing.

Eagle Esquire said...

How’d you hear that?

Big Jack Krack said...

If true, it doesn't surprise me. I'm not happy about this trend, but maybe his ankle isn't 100% yet.

Big Jack Krack said...

The Globe also reported that the ankle injury that has hampered AJ Dillon will be an issue into the spring - but he was able to take his normal reps in preparation for this game.

That tells you about all you need to know. He is not 100%. As long as AJ is willing, TEHC will run him up the middle 40 times on a bad foot.

I said when he was hurt in the Temple game how outrageous it was to leave him sitting on the bench for the entire 2nd half with that injury.

These things take a long time, yet some here thought he could shake it off quickly.

NOT!

This game will show us what kind of "BC Man" our EHC is.

Georgia Eagle said...

Enough of the EHC BS. The proper, accurate and appropriate designation is DAZOSHIT !!! The moron deserves nothing but our scorn.

DosBC said...
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DosBC said...

AJ “The Sauce” Dillon
AJ “The Sauce” Dillon
@ajdillon7
Haven’t felt this good since week 4 ... I’m back! Merry Christmas 🎄
11:59 AM · Dec 25, 2018 · Twitter Lite

DosBC said...

Coach Loeffler will call the plays tomorrow.

Big Jack Krack said...

The game is in 2 hours and there is zero buildup on Eagle in Atlanta blog.

Since we can expect AJ to run the rock 40 times up the middle today, I'd like to see us play at normal pace. It does not make sense to run a speed offense when you get 3 and out so often. If you look at the stats in the games we lost, the amount of 1 minute possessions is pitiful. 1st down run; 2nd down run; 3rd down short pass; 4th down punt.

It's no wonder our defense was something like 72nd in the nation. They are always on the field.

Even when the play calling was slightly different, the result was the same.

So I'm going to watch the play calling very closely today to see if we run the same STUPID offense, or if we add a few new wrinkles.

Any further word on Zach Allen?