Friday, September 06, 2019

Addazio as a game manager

At one point during the Virginia Tech game, the announce team referenced Addazio using a card to decide when to go for it on 4th or kick the field goal. Using a card is nothing revolutionary in football. I don't know if it is for Addazio. But as they were discussing it, they also shared that Addazio will sometimes ignore the card and go with his gut. This is pretty commonplace in football too...and it is part of the problem. If Addazio is ever going to break through, he is going to have to abandon the debunked football conventional wisdom and do what the numbers say.

A few years ago against Clemson, Addazio punted over and over again from Clemson territory as BC drives stalled. Some applauded, but it was the wrong move. Giving up on possessions, especially when he other team is favored and is explosive is a losing gameplan. BC lost that game. I never heard Addazio defend his strategy, but every once in a while you will hear him discuss stats and probability as if he is picking up new info. Some of his colleagues like Urban Meyer and Ryan Day were early adopters of bucking conventional wisdom, so maybe he is hearing it from people he trusts. Moving to tempo a few years ago was a sign that he could adapt. Now, he needs to take it one step further and not go with his gut when he should go for it.

Beyond the field goal issue, BC did go for it on 4th down against VT. It was unsuccessful, but that doesn't mean it was the wrong call. BC is more likely to convert 4th and short with Dillon than they are to make a FG and what ever field position they would pick up in a punt wouldn't be nearly as valuable as continuing their own drive.

Richmond is a perfect game to keep going with the numbers over the gut. I hope it works so that Addazio feels more comfortable with the numbers when the game is on the line against a real team.

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