Thursday, November 26, 2020

BC-Louisville preview

While BC has done everything right during the pandemic, this is the first true test of BC and Hafley's ability to juggle and change. This game was on, then rescheduled, then back on again but with a different time and date. In theory it should not be a big deal. The team had more than enough time to turn it back on mentally, but you never know. These are still young, immature players in an unprecedented time.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
There is lots of talk about BC's future uniform and shoe deal. If you don't follow this, Under Armour started breaking their current college deals and are not renewing others. It seems highly unlikely they will renew the BC deal and there is plenty of talk that the current deal might be cut short. Is this part of the college sports revenue model reset? Who knows? But taking one major bidder out of the process ultimately makes any deal (including BC's) less valuable. Hopefully Pat Kraft can make a deal that keeps the revenue close to its current levels. What I really hope for is that whatever partner we select, we see an improvement in the selection and options for BC merchandise. I also wouldn't mind seeing BC increase its presence with all potential licencing partners.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stop the run. Louisville's passing game is not particularly consistent. If we stop their run, we will control the tempo and probably keep them from scoring much.
2. Big plays from Zay. Louisville's D is ok. We probably can't chip away at them, so it will be up to get some big plays, which means Zay needs to break a few.
3. Aggressive game management. Hafley made some gutsy calls against Clemson and Notre Dame. We've been off two weeks and are coming off a loss. I think a few big plays could help the momentum and the confidence of the team.

Gambling Notes
-- Louisville leads the series 7-5
-- BC is 3-0 against the spread vs Louisville the last three years
-- Satterfield is 7-8 in ACC play
The current line is BC-1

This is technically Senior Day, but obviously no parents this year.

Scoreboard Watching
If Notre Dame beats UNC, they are probably headed to the ACC Championship Game. I know none of us want to see the Irish do well, but if they go undefeated in the regular season and then lose to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, both teams will likely make the playoffs. Two ACC playoff teams is good for the entire conference.

I hope to see...Jurkovec healthy. As we now know, he separated his shoulder towards the end of the Clemson game and that effected his accuracy against Cuse and Notre Dame. We need him healthy for this game and for the season finale.

BC is in trouble if...we turn the ball over. Louisville is somewhat sloppy. If we just play our usual game, we should get turnovers. We can't help them out by giving any back.

Despite the layoff and the close point spread, I think this is a good matchup for us. I don't think they can score with us and think we will be opportunistic enough to get a few turnovers. If Jurk is truly healthy, this isn't even close.
Final Score: BC 31, Louisville 21

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