Thursday, September 30, 2021

BC-Clemson preview

Regardless of what BC does in this game, the post-game narrative will be all about Clemson. If they lose, everyone will talk about how far Clemson has fallen. If they win, it was a bounce back game. So in that sense, BC has nothing to lose. We won't get much credit either way. But a "W" in the Atlantic standings is critical, so let's go win this thing!

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I've watched a lot of youtube highlights of last week and having Alumni filled makes a huge difference in how the game and program looks on those clips. When the game is televised live, the TV partner usually is so tight on the action, you rarely see the whole stadium or extensive shots of the crowd. But on these internet clips (usually taken by BC) the difference between packed stands and empty stands is dramatic. If Alumni does undergo renovations, I have no problem shrinking the seating capacity. I just think the density of a crowd needs to be maintained because it looks so much better.

Three Simple Keys
1. Dominate on the OLine. Last week's OLine performance was one the best of the BC unit in years (the home win against USC might have been the last time they looked that dominant at Alumni). Clemson's DLine is not as strong as some of their recent groups. It is paramount that our guys get good push, get to the second level and give Grosel time.
2. Give lots of looks defensively. We kept it simple the first few weeks and last week we dropped lots of guys into coverage. It made for some frustrating 3rd Down defense and didn't bring much pressure, but I think the same attack will work this week. Bend but don't break them to death.
3. Grosel need to be more accurate.  Can he be a 60% passer against Clemson and win? Probably not. But beyond juicing the completion percentage, he needs to be on time and on target (which was still an issue on some passes last week).

Gambling Notes
-- Clemson has won 10 straight in the series
-- BC is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games as an underdog
-- Clemson is 0-4 against the spread this year
The current line is BC+14.5

Due to the COVID schedule shuffle, this game has been played three straight times in South Carolina. The teams faced each other four straight times in Boston in the 1940s.

Scoreboard Watching
BC is off to a great start. Clemson is down. Florida State is a mess. But look who is also hot: Wake. It had to be Wake, just when BC is trending up. Let's see if they are for real when they take on Louisville this weekend. Louisville is not special, so a good team should put the Cardinals away.

I hope to see...
Another big day from Patrick Garwo. Because Levy had the big carries late and because we went through the air in OT, Garwo probably didn't get the attention he deserved. If he has another big night, that will be a good sign for BC in this game and going forward.

BC is in trouble if...
We turn the ball over three times. We got lucky last week that the early INT didn't set the tone. Protecting the ball is critical again.

Bottom Line
I think it will be similar to last week on the BC side. I think we will run the ball to control and be conservative on D. I think Clemson has a better D than Mizzou but a worse offense, so I expect fewer points overall. In the end, I think we ride the Oline to another huge victory.
Final Score: BC 28, Clemson 24

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