Friday, September 23, 2022

BC-Florida State preview

Fan debates and discussion all drive towards the extreme. There are those who believe BC will never win another game again…ever. And those who think we are one move, play, player, a bit of luck away from greatness. When we step back and take a breath, the reality is probably the somewhere in the middle. (Where in the middle is another debate.) I still have hope for Hafley but until he gets an overwhelming talent advantage at BC, he is going to have to get better at the week-to-week, game-to-game aspect of managing the season. This Florida State team has a talent advantage. But they are not all that far removed from chaos and disappointment themselves. Prior to the season, Norvell was on everyone’s Hot Seat list. The best BC teams of the past would go into this game with quiet confidence, hang around and watch the Seminoles imploded. I don’t know if we are there yet. But if Hafley does show some ability to course correct midseason, that will be a great sign for this game and the weeks ahead.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Despite the disappointing start, Hafley and company still have recruiting momentum. This is a good sign for the future, but also is a good sign for the present. One of the most overlooked aspects of recruiting is how the current players sell the program and staff to visitors. Once a coach loses the locker room, you can start to see it with comments from potential recruits. Even though we are frustrated, it seems like the players still believe.

Three Simple Keys
1. Win the turnover margin. This means Jurk is making good decisions and the D is being opportunistic.
2. Get Takacs involved early. Short, quick passes will hopefully help Jurk get in a groove.
3. Incremental improvement on the Oline. Florida State has some depth issues in their front seven. If we can minimize mistakes and get to the second level, we might break some big runs.

Gambling Notes
-- BC is 0-3 against the spread this year
-- Florida State is 2-1 against the spread
-- BC is 1-5 against the spread in their last six games vs Florida State
The current line is BC+17.5

BC last won in Tallahassee in 2008. (This was such a fun game and fun season. Good back and read the recap.)

Scoreboard Watching
Clemson-Wake has huge implications for the ACC race. It is the biggest test either team has faced so far. I still think this might be one of those seasons where it all comes together for Wake. If so, they need to win this weekend.

What I hope to see…
The young running backs get touches. They provided a clear spark and nice change of pace last week. This is a little different than Maine, but I am all for giving the young guys a shot. You never know who will surprise

BC is in trouble if…
Jurk is out of rhythm and forcing things. If we are going to win, he needs to be the best quarterback in the stadium.

Bottom Line 
I want to I will keep pushing that rock up the hill hoping that things click this Saturday. With that in mind, Jurk looks better than he has all season and the BC offense explodes against a real team and avoids giving the ‘Noles a short field. The BC D also looks sturdier.
Final Score: BC 35, FSU 27

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