Friday, October 21, 2022

BC-Wake Forest preview

Two steps forward, one face plant back. The first half of the Clemson game was a solid follow up to the Louisville win. But the same mistakes creeped in and we were overwhelmed again. Hafley seemingly took exception to Dabo running up the score, but at this point it is on Hafley to keep these games competitive. The season is not over, but the schedule is tough. Some of the teams we thought would be heavy favorites (NC State, ND) might not, while ‘Cuse looks to be having one of those years where it all works for them. Even UConn is showing more fight than I expected. BC remains on the tight rope. This season could still fall completely apart. Hafley’s goal should be to keep us moving and give everyone some signs of encouragement.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
In the post game discussion surrounding the Clemson game, there were plenty of Clemson critics of the BC Game Day experience. I won’t get into the alleged student harassment, but the basic complaints about our narrow public spaces, dated concessions, bad bathroom setup and staffing challenges are legitimate. Churning through Athletic Directors didn’t help since this remains a long-term project. I hope the intended stability of the Blake James hire speeds up the planned renovations to Alumni. It is well passed time to fix some of these issues.

Three Simple Keys
1. Jurk has to complete at least 55% of his passes. It is that simple. He needs to be smarter and more accurate. I keep telling myself it will click soon. The Line is only part of the issue.
2. Use an extra lineman. It worked early against Clemson but we went away from it. The extra protector gives us more time and can keep the run game relevant. What we lose in an extra skill player can be somewhat adjusted by the doubles Zay draws anyway.
3. Disrupt the mesh. Attacking the mesh is a pick your poison options, but our DBs are good enough that I have no problem being aggressive at the line to get in there before Wake can make their usual reads.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 14-12-2
-- Clawson is 4-3 vs BC
-- Wake is 5-1 against the spread
The current line is BC+20.5

BC has a winning record in Winston-Salem.

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse-Clemson. Is 'Cuse for real? I am in general a skeptic, but a win against Clemson would launch them into the Top 10.

I hope to see…
BC generate lots of turnovers. At this point we have to take more risks and get a little lucky. We have a defensive-minded coach. You would think we would be better ball hawks.

BC is in trouble if…
Wake covers. At this point it is not about hollow moral victories. Blowouts bother me more because it shows the staff can’t control games and most likely in this case, can’t generate points against a quality teams. It speaks to bigger issues about the season and how Hafley has to adjust in the offseason.

Bottom Line
I don’t think we are winning. I don’t think the season is over by any means, but I think Wake isn’t going to implode and make the mistakes we might. I think it has a similar pattern to other games where we come out strong, but they pull away in the second half.
Final Score: BC 20, Wake 35

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