Friday, September 22, 2023

BC-Louisville preview

I can only speak for myself when I say I never believed. Even as we were making the comeback. Even as big plays were happening, I didn’t think we would upset Florida State. I don’t know if it is a sign of apathy or frustration or being jaded. It probably helps my heart rate, but it doesn’t generate a lot of optimism heading into a game where we are double-digit underdogs again. 

Can we win this week? Sure. Cut back on mistakes. Stop with the penalties. Plus Castellanos seems like that type of wild card where you can never count him out. Now it is up to Hafley to turn those “ifs” into tangible results. He thinks we are close to breaking through. I hope he is right.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
As most probably know the Swim and Dive teams were indefinitely suspended. I feel for the victims as the alleged hazing sucks and I can’t believe anyone even partially endorses this sort of thing anymore. I feel for the kids who weren’t part of it but whose season ends. However, the students will have more eligibility so they can make up the time. What shows my stage of life is my empathy is now with the parents whose kids won’t swim this year. BC Swimming – like most sports outside of football and basketball – has the majority of the team on partial scholarships or no scholarships at all. Parents are paying tens of thousands of dollars for their children to swim at BC. Now they won’t. What a waste.

Three Simple Keys 
1. Stop the drops. It is getting a little better but some of the drops last week were drive killers.
2. Control the clock again. Penalties aside, the Oline is so much better than last year. Leverage that by running the ball and wearing on the Louisville front.
3. Get more pressure on the quarterback. Our front four needs to step it up and close out on their chances at Plummer.

Gambling notes 
-- Hafley is 2-1 vs Louisville
-- Hafley is 6-11 on the road
-- Louisville leads the series 8-7
The current line is BC+14

This is the first time we have played Louisville in September as a member of the ACC. The prior schedules had some general patterns to them, but now with the lack of divisions and a rotation of teams on and off, there will be fewer games scheduled with the idea of patterns and time of year etc.

Scoreboard Watching
Florida State-Clemson. I heard and read that many people thought we exposed Florida State. I actually think Florida State was very good but just had a bit of an off day. It will be interesting to see how they look against Clemson. I am expecting them to make a major statement and make our game look more like an aberration.

BC is in trouble if… We get down by double digits again. It is just too much pressure on the offense week in and week out.

I hope to see… A reasonable amount of penalties. If Hafley can’t get control of the trend then he might not be cut out to be a head coach. The shocking number of penalties exposes the way he is managing his staff, teaching his players and even handling the refs.

Bottom Line
I said I didn’t believe last week. I have a sliver of belief now, so I might as well ride it. I think Castellanos puts on a show. We get lucky on some turnovers and hold on for a huge win.
Final Score: BC 28, Louisville 24

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