Thursday, November 09, 2023

BC-Virginia Tech preview

This run has been fun. No debate. The games are back and forth. We have pulled off some upsets on the road. We have some exciting players. No complaints from me. But we should probably recognize that our record is probably better than it should be. BC enters this game with a +5 point differential total on the season. When your point differential is so small, you usually are a .500 team. Winning close games is better than losing, but you have to recognize that your luck will run out. If BC really wants to continue this win streak, they need to take their level of play to the next level and start winning these games decisively.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
This will be our last Saturday game of the season and our last ACC Network game. But when you wonder why, just look at the TV ratings for Syracuse-BC. 1.1M people watched! The 15th most watched game of the weekend and the second highest rated ACC game of the weekend. If BC wants to stay in the good graces of the ACC and TV execs, they should be willing to play on Friday and Thursday nights as often as they will have us. (And for anyone who says that is a Syracuse number not a BC number, Cuse-VT on Thursday the week before only drew 700K and the Friday night game the week before of FAU-Charlotte only drew 300K).

Three Simple Keys
1. Don’t make TC do it all. I know we are thin and banged up, but we can’t have TC carry the ball 20+ times a game nor throwing it 35+ times a game. We need a steady run diet with whoever is healthy and leverage TC as a threat vs just a workhorse.
2. Get VT off the field. They are going to try to do what we do: shorten the game, long drives, etc. We need to get them behind schedule and be the ones controlling the clock.
3. Don’t lose the gambling mindset. We are going bowling. That’s the baseline. Now there really isn’t anything to lose. So Hafley should keep rolling the dice on 4th down. Keep calling fake punts and trick plays. Let it all hang out. We want to win.

Gambling notes
-- VT leads the series 20-11
-- Pry has yet to win an ACC road game
-- Hafley is 1-2 vs Virginia Tech
The Current line is BC+1.5

Factoid Since BC’s move from independence to Big East football, we’ve played Virginia Tech more than any other team (31 games). The only break was in our final year in the Big East, but that is somewhat offset by the two times we played them in the ACC Championship Game.

Scoreboard Watching
Louisville-Virginia. A lot needs to happen for BC to make the ACC Championship Game. But the biggest hurdle is Louisville. We don’t need Virginia to pull off an upset, but it would help our chances.

BC is in trouble if…If we are truly down to one RB. Hafley said things are improved, but we have no idea if anyone is up for 20 carries.

What I hope to see…Better run defense. The Orange had too many big run plays. We can’t let that happen this week.

Bottom Line These two teams are very alike. I expect a slow-paced, grind it out affair. I think we have the better Oline and players and control in the second half. Final Score: BC 23, Virginia Tech 10

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