Thursday, March 11, 2010
BC going hard after young CT QB
Thanks to Mike for the link.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Talking through the QB situation Part 3
"Our best offensive playmakers are Gunnell, Momah, Robinson, Purvis and Jarvis. They need someone who can throw the ball all over the field to them. Also, Haden and Harris will be bottled up without a passing threat. Crane has the arm to make the offense go."
The other positions I cannot rationalize. This one I sort of can understand. We are not built for a pound away and win 13-10 team. Our kicking game is too suspect. Our special teams are too suspect. And to win in that sort of scheme, you really need a QB who won't make mistakes. In a low scoring, minimal possession ballgame, one turnover can kill you.
BC tried to make Crane a game manager and play dink and dunk. It led to the Georgia Tech loss and the the first half struggles against UCF. Once they opened the offense things started clicking. Crane keeps making mistakes, but we have seen some upside.
Davis might be able to operate in a ultra-conservative offense, but I think the best scheme is one that opens this up and uses all our pieces.
What's next?
I don't want to have a Part 4 of this series, but Friday's articles makes me think the story is not over. Check out these quotes:
"It's not like you have a waiver wire," said Jagodzinski, who said his use of Crane will be as much about "feel" as anything else.
If the offense is functioning smoothly, Crane will stay in the game. If it sputters or the rash of turnovers continues, the Eagles could very well go back to Davis. But there are no guarantees.
And this one:
“I’ll tell you this. I won’t change for the sake of change, to appease people,” Jagodzinski said.
Does this sound over?
Monday, October 27, 2008
Talking through the QB situation Part 1
"Davis is not playing well in practice and is not ready for the toughest part of the schedule."
Ultimately it could be as simple as this. None of us are in practice. Davis might be hitting guys in their shoelaces or floating passes ten feet over their heads. He may have poor practice habits. He might not be learning. He might be a disaster ten times worse than Crane. But, he's all we have. The staff has deemed him the next best option after Crane. They want to keep Tuggle's redshirt. Crane's play dictates that you try something else.
Even if Davis is the worst practice player ever with a thin understanding of the offense, you take a shot. Some players perform differently when it is game time. Some rise to the occasion. Plus getting him out there forces the other team to adjust and prepare for two QBs. Even if the staff thinks he is terrible, Clemson, Notre Dame and Maryland don't know that. They just see another tall athletic QB across the line.
If Davis gets out there and looks terrible or turns the ball over, you put him back on the bench. One turnover is not going to be anything worse than the mistakes that Crane has made.
Later in the week I'll get into the Crane upside argument.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
How does Chris Crane compare to other "rookie" QBs?
| QB | W-L | Attempts | Comp Pct | Yards | Passing TDs | INTs | Rushing TDs |
| Brian St. Pierre | 6-1 | 180 | 55% | 1,186 | 15 | 6 | 0 |
| Quinton Porter | 4-3 | 182 | 59% | 1,293 | 14 | 5 | 1 |
| Paul Peterson | 6-1 | 194 | 61% | 1,496 | 13 | 6 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 6-1 | 246 | 59% | 1,621 | 9 | 7 | 5 |
| Chris Crane | 6-1 | 200 | 57% | 1,249 | 6 | 10 | 9 |
A few words on the context of the stats
Let me address a few things, before we get into the results.
-- W-Ls are most important and I think we all acknowledge that defense and scheduling play factor into the hot starts of most of our recent QBs.
-- I only counted games started, which hurts Crane and Porter. Both of them came into their starting run with much less playing time than St. Pierre, Peterson and Ryan.
-- Crane is operating out of a different offense and a different offensive philosophy than the previous four QBs.
With that out of the way…
Conclusion
Crane is clearly the most reckless (or error prone) QB to see the field in nearly a decade. He offsets some of the carelessness and poor decisions with his running ability in the red zone. His accuracy and productivity chart closer to our lower performing QBs rather than our top guys. He’s a rookie, but the upside is probably not where we want it to be. Excusing his poor play due to his inexperience makes for good spin. It is not the sole reason for his struggles.
Regardless, Crane is supported by the best group of receivers we’ve had in this time period. He’s also got a better D and better offensive coordinator than his predecessors. He’s good enough to get us to Tampa. We just need him to be slightly better than he has been.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Replacing a QB, Part 5: Life after Flutie
What happened in 1985?
Bicknell kept the Flutie offense in place. Despite missing out on a bowl BC still played in 12 games (they were part of the Kickoff Classic), so Halloran actually threw as many passes as Flutie did in the ’84 season: 423. It’s what happened to those passes that became the story. Halloran did not come close to Flutie’s 60% completion rate, only threw for 13 TDs and had 23 INTs. The passing yards declined from 3,634 to 2,935. More worrisome, the points per game fell from 37.4 to 18.5 points a game. BC followed its best season of the modern era with a disappointing 4-8 record.
What is different for 2008?
Although there was some talent left on defense (Ruth, Romo, etc) most of the skill position heroes from 1984 were gone. Crane inherits most of Ryan’s receivers. Also, the offense will adjust to Crane’s skill set. One of Halloran’s challenges in 1985 was that the schemes were often the same as 1984 yet he didn’t have Flutie’s mobility nor accuracy. Unless he proves to be more capable than he's playing now, it is highly unlikely Crane will be in the pocket chucking it 50 times a game like Ryan. Halloran was also younger and less experienced than Crane will be heading into this season. Although bigger than Doug, Halloran was not the same sort of athlete Flutie was. Crane is actually more athletic than Matt Ryan.
What is the same for 2008?
The defense will have to carry the team. Unlike the post Foley era, the Flutie transition and the Ryan transition will happen under the same head coach and same offensive coordinator.
Conclusion
Things won’t be as messy as they were in 1985. The schedule sets up better, the skill positions and offensive line sets up better and the defense should be very good. Although Crane lacks game experience, he won’t be as raw as Halloran was when he first started. If we go 4-8 this year, it won’t Chris Crane’s fault. Many other things will have gone wrong.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Replacing a QB, Part 4: Life after Foley
Who followed Foley?
Mark Hartsell. Hartsell was a local product with a big frame and an even bigger arm. His first year as a starter was on the frustrating side. He completed 159 of 257 passes and was responsible for 1,864 yards of total offense. The offense also regressed in 1994, averaging only 22.6 points a game. With an inconsistent attack, the team fell to 7-4-1.
What is different for 2008?
Hartsell was not a great QB, but a coaching change also played into his struggles. For all his supposed offensive acumen, the play calling and QB coaching under Dan Henning was curious. Henning’s gameplans became utterly predictable and Hartsell often looked lost out there.
What is the same for 2008?
Great returning Tight End. Check. Veteran D expected to carry the team. Check. Holes to fill at running back. Check. The situation that Crane is stepping into certainly has many of the same elements as the Foley-Hartsell transition.
Conclusion
Hartsell’s first year as starter was my first as a BC student. I remember the overwhelming frustration amongst all the fans. I don’t expect a similar outcome this year. While 1994 and 2008 have some spooky parallels, Crane is a fifth year Senior and working with his same offensive coordinator. We will probably see an offensive drop off, but nothing close to the 12 point-decline that happened 14 years ago.
Friday, June 06, 2008
Chris Crane then
Crane coming out of high school
Low expectations aren't a new thing. As a prospect, not much was expected of Crane.
Rivals gave Crane 3 stars and ranked him as the 17th overall QB prospect in 2004.
Scout gave Crane 2 stars and ranked him as the 62nd best QB prospect in 2004.
BC's own press release on signing day focused on Brian Toal and Marquise Liverpool.
In this article Crane explains that the decision came down to BC, Clemson, Stanford and Virginia. Not a bad group from which to choose, but it is not as if BC won a recruiting battle over national powers for Crane's services. (Also of note in that article: Crane talks about Peterson and Porter but doesn't mention Ryan. Shows how things pan out.)
20/20 hindsight on 2004
Regardless of how Crane does, I think it is safe to say he was the best prospect we focused on in his class. Take a look at the other QBs BC recruited in 2004. (And it wasn't just BC...looking back 2004 will prove to be a poor year for QB prospects. Here are the pro style and dual threats from that year. Not many all conference players.)
Monday, May 26, 2008
They're back: Ryan's supporting cast crucial for Crane
-- 15 Eagles caught passes in 2007. Eight of those Eagles return this year. Of the seven who left via graduation or disciplinary issues, only two caught more than 20 passes.
-- Three of 2007's four most productive pass catchers return.
-- The two most productive wide receivers return. The most productive tight end returns.
-- Our returning players accounted for 60% of our completions.
-- Our returning players accounted for 65% of our passing yards.
-- Our returning players accounted for 64% of our passing touchdowns.
-- Incoming freshman wide receiver Colin Larmond was All-State in New Jersey and ranked as the No. 7 prospect in the state of New Jersey according to Rivals.com.
-- Incoming freshman Clyde Lee was ranked within the top 100 recruits coming out of Texas by Rivals.com.
-- Redshirt freshman Lars Anderson was ranked by ESPN as the 26th-best tight end in the country and ranked as one of the Top 50 and #2 TE in the state of Florida.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Replacing a QB, Part 3
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
Replacing a QB, Part 2
**2006 and 2002 are not included as the first team all ACC QBs (Ryan and Schaub) returned for a senior season.
| Year | Team | QB | Points Per Game | W-L | Successor | Points Per Game | W-L |
| 2005 | Virginia Tech | Marcus Vick | 33.8 | 11-2 | Sean Glennon | 25.8 | 10-3 |
| 2004 | Virginia Tech | Byran Randall | 30.8 | 10-3 | Marcus Vick | 33.8 | 11-2 |
| 2003 | NC State | Philip Rivers | 37.6 | 8-5 | Jay Davis | 24.0 | 5-6 |
| 2001 | Clemson | Woody Dantzler | 30.8 | 7-5 | Willie Simmons | 25.4 | 7-6 |
| 2000 | Florida State | Chris Weinke | 39.3 | 11-2 | Chris Rix | 33.6 | 8-4 |
As you can see, there is no clear pattern on what works are what doesn't. NC State and Clemson turned the programs over to veterans. Florida State followed a Heisman winner with a freshman. Virginia Tech has had the most continuity, yet is not a particularly QB-centric offense or program.
My biggest fear is the Jay Davis scenario. Davis, like Crane, was a long-time backup. He struggled and the team went through a QB controversy. I think BC avoids that worst-case scenario regardless of the QB. Our defense alone should keep us above .500 and bowl eligible.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Replacing a QB, Part 1
Season: 2005
Previous Starter: Paul Peterson
Starter for Opener: Quinton Porter
What happened? After redshirting the 2004 season, former starter Quinton Porter was expected to pick up where Peterson left off and provide a steady hand in BC’s first ACC season. Inconsistency and injuries continued to haunt Porter. A week after winning ACC player of the week honors, he was pulled from the Wake Forest game. Matt Ryan came off the bench and led a stunning comeback. BC had a huge QB controversy.
Stats Comparison:
| Year | QB | Comp Pct | Yards | TDs-INTs |
| 2004 | Peterson | 62.3% | 2,594 | 18-10 |
| 2005 | Porter | 63.6% | 1,357 | 9-7 |
| 2005 | Ryan | 62.1% | 1,514 | 8-5 |
Record: 9-3
Assessment: Messy. This was obviously the most controversial transition of the TOB era. A good defense and a surprising run by Ryan kept BC in the Top 25 despite the QB controversy.
Season: 2003
Previous Starter: Brian St. Pierre
Starter for Opener: Quinton Porter
What happened? Unlike St. Pierre, who had been groomed with game action for two years, Porter was somewhat thrown to the wolves in 2003. BC had brought in Junior College transfer Paul Peterson as an insurance policy. Porter was inconsistent throughout the season, while Peterson looked promising in his limited play. Once Porter hurt his hand against West Virginia, the job was PaulPete’s.
Stats Comparison:
| Year | QB | Comp Pct | Yards | TDs-INTs |
| 2002 | St. Pierre | 58.2% | 2,983 | 18-17 |
| 2003 | Porter | 56% | 1,764 | 14-6 |
| 2003 | Peterson | 57.1% | 1,124 | 10-7 |
Record: 8-5
Assessment: Lucky. This season lacked the controversy of 2005, but they both included late runs after the change. While there were grumblings that the wrong QB was starting, few around BC knew what we had in Peterson. BC was 5-5 coming into Peterson’s first start. Once the job was his, the team ran off a 12-2 streak over the next season and a half.
Season: 2001
Previous Starter: Tim Hasselbeck
Starter for Opener: Brian St. Pierre
What happened? Brian St. Pierre took over as a redshirt JR. A local kid, recruited by TOB, BSP was groomed with game action and the occasional start prior to being the full-time starter. There was no other real candidate for the position.
Stats Comparison:
| Year | QB | Comp Pct | Yards | TDs-INTs |
| 2000 | T. Hasselbeck | 53.2% | 1,810 | 16-9 |
| 2001 | St. Pierre | 53.4% | 2,016 | 25-10 |
Record: 8-4
Assessment: This is how it was supposed to work. Having a great offensive line and William Green in the backfield aided St. Pierre’s transition.
Season: 1999
Previous Starter: Scott Mutryn
Starter for Opener: Tim Hasselbeck
What happened? Tim Hasselbeck, who had played sparingly prior to the season, came in as the heir apparent. He played well and led BC to its first bowl appearance in five seasons.
| Year | QB | Comp Pct | Yards | TDs-INTs |
| 1998 | Mutryn | 60% | 2,218 | 12-11 |
| 1999 | T. Hasselbeck | 54.1% | 2,086 | 12-9 |
Record: 8-4
Assessment: Pretty good. The only awkward period of the transition was TOB inserting Brian St. Pierre into games for the first drive of the second quarter. The goal was to give BSP game experience. Critics felt it just killed BC’s momentum.
This should be a reminder that even the best laid plans can go awry. St. Pierre was the only QB recruited by one head coach, redshirted, groomed, and named the starter without controversy as a JR…and he was good not great. One thing is certain, whoever starts the Kent State game will be our least experienced starting QB since Porter’s vs Wake Forest in 2003.