Thursday, October 10, 2019

Addazio and close losses

With the loss to Louisville, Addazio's record in one score games (8 points or less) fell to 12-18 at BC and 14-21 in his career. Obviously that is not good. But is it unlucky? Maybe. Given a large enough sample size a coach's record in close games should be around .500. The idea is that the close games are almost like coin flips and for everything that goes against BC, there should be some things that go for BC. Has Addazio screwed up games? Sure, but so have our opponents. In his most frustrating close loss (Wake 2015), he and Clawson took turns screwing up the game. I don't think Addazio is a good game manager, but I don't think the close losses are the bigger problem. I think the main issue is like TOB when he was at BC, too often Addazio doesn't press his advantage (i.e. keep his foot on the gas). By keeping it close or letting up, you let the other team back in and invite the game to become a coin flip. Prime examples of this in his BC tenure include Colorado State, Georgia Tech in Ireland and Florida State last year.

I am now reading and hearing a few BC true believers say that luck will even out this year and BC will get some close wins. That may happen, but like a coin flip, each game is an independent event. He could lose all his close games this year too. The key for Addazio is going to be not keeping it close.

Saturday, October 05, 2019

Game Day: Louisville

No comments this year.

What you need to know.

Weather: Mid 60s to low 70s.

TV: Regional sports networks. Whatever channel used to carry the Raycom secondary game in your market is likely doing it again.

Radio: SiriusXM 194

Friday, October 04, 2019

BC-Louisville preview

BC's last trip to Louisville was a turning point. Addazio's job and BC's season seemed on the line and the team responded in a shocking shootout from a previously stagnant offense. Now Addazio takes a team to Kentucky needing another jump start. Could this be the right opponent at the right time again?

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
The Chris Ash firing sparked a new round of media speculation on who is next and Addazio was often listed in the mix. I am on record saying it is time for change, but I have no idea if change will happen. I still think six regular season wins is happening. Would that be enough to save him? I hope not, but after seeing Christian survive, I have no idea.

Three Simple Keys
1. Third down defense. This has been embarrassingly bad. If BC just stops two or more drives a bit earlier against Wake, they win. Louisville should not be as efficient. BC needs sound tackling and pressure on the QB.
2. No false starts and formation penalties. Is it too much to ask? This has been very sloppy this year. Our line should dominate this weekend. Don't let Louisville off the hook with stupid mistakes.
3. No Special Teams mistakes. Aside from the kicking issues, there was a bad punt last week and some sloppy returns. Clean that up.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio has won the last two vs Louisville
-- Satterfield is 27-6 when coaching at home
-- Addazio is 16-15 on the road as BC's coach
The current line is BC+5.5

BC's first trip to Louisville was in 1986.

Scoreboard Watching

This is a pretty slow weekend for ACC Matchups. The one most relevant to us is Pitt-Duke. Is Pitt legit? If they look bad, it will make me feel a little better about our matchup with them at Thanksgiving.

I hope to see...

The Oline dominate. Lost among the false starts and hit or miss passing game is that our Oline has been pretty good. The other team is selling out to stop the run, yet we are still controlling the line of scrimmage. Keep that up and BC will be ok.

BC is in trouble if...
We can't get sacks. Like Kansas and Rutgers, Louisville heads into our game with QB uncertainty. This should lead to us wrecking things, not giving them confidence.

Bottom Line
I've been throwing the game in the "toss up" group and actually think we pull it off. Louisville is even less prepared than Wake for our run game. I think we grind away with Dillon and Bailey and the D does just enough to win.
Final Score: BC 24, Louisville, 17

Monday, September 30, 2019

ESPN's FPI thinks we won't win again

Most people felt that BC's schedule was backloaded with tough games. Yet there was some optimism -- especially after the VT win -- that BC could start 5-0. We didn't. And now things might not get better. Look at ESPN's FPI for our remaining schedule:

Louisville -- 22.4%
NC State -- 49.4%
Clemson -- 1.7%
Syracuse -- 30.9%
Florida State -- 30.1%
Notre Dame -- 3.6%
Pittsburgh -- 26.6%

We are not favored in any of the remaining games and given the slimmest of chance to upset Clemson and Notre Dame. According to the models, our last best chance to win is against NC State. If Addazio finishes 3-9, he is done at BC.

I am on record as wanting a new coach, but I actually think the formulas are off. Is BC bad? Yes. But is the rest of the ACC that much better? No. I still think Louisville, NC State, Cuse, Florida State and Pitt are winnable. I also think Addazio will grind his way to six regular season wins. That might still be too little, too late, but I do think that is what will happen.

Saturday, September 28, 2019

Game Day: Wake Forest

No comments this year. 

What you need to know

Weather: Another perfect, dry afternoon game. Should be in the high 70s at kickoff and will drop off a little as the sunsets, but still a great day.

TV: The ACC Network. I should be getting paid for this plug, but if you are still without the ACC Network, try Youtube TV.

Radio: SiriusXM 202

Thursday, September 26, 2019

BC-Wake Forest preview

I think most of us expected BC to be 3-1 heading into Wake Forest. I guess the way it played out though has many questioning how BC will handle the meat of the season. The Wake game will be a barometer as they seem like one of the teams in the league that is playing better than expected and has been fairly consistent.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
It is only September and we've only played one ACC game, but it feels weird to see BC sitting in second in the division. That is due to our lone ACC win. But it also shows how this season is not going as planned for NC State, Syracuse, Louisville, and obviously Florida State.

Three Simple Keys
1. Avoid Turnovers. The best thing about this offense-defense combination is that they are not turning it over and getting turnovers. Wake is probably the better team. If we are going to win, we need to be careful on offense and opportunistic on D.
2. Pressure on the QB. This has been terrible. I know we are not Don Brown anymore, but copying some of his ideas about bringing pressure from unusual and unexpected slots would be good right about now.
3. Keep using Brown in the running game. Last week was a good start. Keep it up this week. It will open some many other things up on offense.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 4-2 vs Clawson
-- Addazio is 9-15 at home in ACC games
-- Clawson is 12-17 on the road while coaching Wake
The current line is BC+6.5

The visiting team has won five straight in this series.

Scoreboard Watching
Florida State and NC State has division implications as well as Hot Seat implications. If NC State loses, I think you will see them asking the same questions about Doeren, we always seem to be asking about Addazio. If FSU loses, their fans will once again be very vocal in their desire for change.

I hope to see...
No more false starts. That was embarrassing, especially for a team that practices so much "tempo."

BC is in trouble if...
Wake has multiple explosive plays. That's the sign that things are not fixed.

Bottom Line
I am not going to lie. I don't feel good about this game. I will pick BC to win and keep with the spirit of this all, but I think this is a bad matchup for BC. If we win, it will be by just pounding, pounding and pounding some more. We need to keep their Offense off the field.
Finale Score: BC 24, Wake 23

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Addazio is all in on AB

In his postgame press conference and since, Addazio has defended Anthony Brown's performance so far this season. He explains away the inaccuracy due to the types of passes they are asking Brown to make. And in fairness, Brown does have the arm to make throws that few college QBs can. He has more than enough arm to throw deep downfield. And we are also scoring at a fairly high rate. Currently BC has the 42nd most efficient offense in College Football. If they hold that form, it would be the best Addazio's teams have finished since Ryan Day left.

The problem is that Brown and BC are leaving big plays on the field. Those extra scores and longer drives are the only solution to BC winning more than seven games this year. The D is lost (109 in Def Efficiency). While that will hopefully improve, what is more likely to get better: the side of the ball with the talent and experience (O) or the side with lots of youth and questionable speed (D)?

It might not be fair to ask Brown to suddenly be as accurate as some Big XII QB, but BC doesn't have a choice. They need him to hit open guys and keep drives going. That is the only way to avoid more games like Kansas, where the D couldn't stop anything.