The impact of the New Balance deal and where's Football?

The long-rumored Boston College-New Balance deal was finally announced Tuesday. It is unique in many ways, most of which is good for BC. There are a few big question marks. 

The Good

1. The Boston connection is going to lend itself to New Balance being more than a shoe and apparel partner. BC will have access to facilities, student internships and be involved in product development. 

2. While New Balance might not have the cachet of some other brands with kids, they provide very solid and popular products in non-revenue sports. Given that our athletes' feet are critical in this process, most just got a better shoe than what they were wearing with Under Armour.

3. Pat Kraft found a partner in a shrinking market. With Under Armour getting out of the college game, that really just left Addidas and Nike as the only players in town. And with Under Armour out, Addidas and Nike had one less bidder to drive up prices. Kraft got creative and got more money for our non-football sports than we would have had Nike or Addidas taken over the whole thing. Given budget pressures and how other schools dealt with the Under Armour fall out, this was a win.

The Unknown

1. If you followed the FBI bribery scandal with college basketball, you know that the shoe companies were heavily involved in the money and player payments (Under Armour too). Regardless of how you feel about this and whether UA and BC were dirty (there is no evidence to say they were), buying players was part of the shoe deal at many, many programs. With New Balance being a relatively new entrant into this world, we have no idea how they will operate and what sort of impact it will have on BC recruiting. I will remain optimistic that the changing landscape of college basketball and the still looming threat of the FBI will mean BC and New Balance will take the right approach. I also hope that New Balance will get more involved at the AAU level so that the New Balance brand won't be such an issue for recruits. In the early stages of this deal, I don't see BC as a player for elite recruits, so the odds of the shoe deal making or breaking a recruit is unlikely.

And then there was Football

Football is not part of the New Balance deal. The separate football deal will be announced in the coming weeks. (It has long been rumored to be Addidas.) Football is doing its own thing because that is what makes most sense for New Balance and BC. New Balance is not heavy into football and not making the push there like they are in basketball. Operationally it will be easier to deal with a supplier that already has a football support structure. Plus breaking off Football separately is a chance to make a few extra dollars, since football is that much more lucrative. While shoes do impact basketball recruiting, it less important for football. Revenue from a football deal is also important to the coaching compensation.

Making sense of the Earl Grant hire

 

The general reaction to BC hiring Earl Grant was "who?" and "why?". There was a similar reaction among the fans and media when we hired Jim Christian seven years ago. I hated the Christian hire for Day 1. I am onboard with Earl Grant. And if his hire reminds me of any BC coach, it is Al Skinner.

Skinner was close to Grant's age when he took the BC job. He also had a similar track record as a head coach at a mid-major. Neither were hot names on the coaching market at the time. Skinner succeeded. Let's hope Grant does as well. Skinner advised during this process and has provided Grant assistance and an evaluation of the BC job. That alone is probably worth more than our last two coaches got in the hiring process. 

Grant is not a Skinner clone though. He is more personable and will be more of a salesman than Al ever was. He also is a D first coach, where sometimes it seemed like an afterthought to Skinner teams. 

The make or break will be staffing. Skinner had great staffs (including five guys that went on to be head coaches). Donahue and Christian did not. Grant has a budget to get good people. If he just brings his Charleston crew, I will become a bit more skeptical of him.

Grant is known as a good recruiter. That should help. Many of our common complaints about BC recruiting are being solved (facilities, admissions, etc).  If he brought NBA talent to Clemson and Charleston, he should be able to do it at an improving BC.

Much is being made of his lack of ties to the region. From a recruiting standpoint, that doesn't bother me. Talent is all over and most of our stars have been from outside the region. The lack of ties to BC or the region becomes a bigger concern for me in adapting to our community and culture. All colleges (even the non-Catholic) become a bit parochial in their approach to things. When you are someone new to the school it can often be daunting. You have to decide which battles you are going to fight every time someone says "that's not how we do things here." But having coached against BC and having a relationship with Skinner leads me to believe that Grant understands BC more than we might expect and has a plan for how he will adapt to BC and where he needs to make changes.

Who he is not?

Grant is not Dennis Gates or Mark Schmidt or Porter Moser or Tommy Amaker or Howard Eisley or any of the other names floated for the job. That is by design at BC. Gene used to talk and speculate with any and everyone. Fans, media and bloggers liked it, but BC did not. Each subsequent coaching search since has been more and more tight lipped and more and more speculative. That leads to fan frustration and disappointment when a random name is hired. But who cares really? Winning the press conference is nice, but that goodwill fades if you don't win once the games start. 

The biggest problem with BC's timing is that there wasn't a perfect, give the guy a blank check candidate for us. John Beilein had zero interest last year and even he has some baggage with regards to his age and how he left the NBA. What other name would have been worth going for broke with? I like Ed Cooley a lot but was he the answer?

The future

Kraft could have gambled a bit more. He could have hired a hot name or an assistant. I am glad he didn't because my expectations and goals at this point of BC Basketball are pretty low. I just want to get back to respectable and competitive annually in the conference (.500). Grant is no sure thing, but I think he is a good mix of potential and competency that will get us back to where we were before these last 11 seasons. I wish him luck and think he will be fine. And if we are lucky he will be a great hire and a great fit.

The challenge with Dennis Gates

 

There's no perfect candidate for Boston college. The ideal candidate would be young yet experienced as a head coach, have ties to BC and/or the ACC, be someone who can recruit, run a staff, manage a game, develop players once they get on campus, sell the program, be charming with the media, have time for social media, and serve as another face of Boston college. Oh, and it would helpful if he were black and Catholic too. If this man existed BC would give him all the money in the world. But since he doesn't exist, Pat Kraft is left to figure out what categories are the deal breakers in his search.

From what I've been told, head coaching experience is a must. That hurts popular names like Howard Eisley, but I understand the position. We have had eleven seasons of futility. This is not the right time to have a rookie coach learn on the job. We need a sure thing, or at a minimum, someone who can keep us competitive annually in the ACC.

One name, who has become popular of late, checks many of the boxes on the wish list: Cleveland State Head Coach Dennis Gates. He is young. He is doing well in his second year as a head coach. He proved himself as an ACC level recruiter while an assistant at Florida State. However, Gates has two major issues. The first is making the jump from the Horizon League straight to the ACC. As we’ve seen with our most recent hires from the MAC and Ivy, coming into the ACC can be a hard adjustment. Gates’ time at FSU mitigates that a bit, but it would be a big leap of faith to assume he could come right into the ACC and win after two COVID interrupted seasons in the Horizon.

The biggest issue with Gates is not the Horizon League. It is his marriage to BC assistant AD Jocelyn Gates. Gates is the No. 2 person in the department with a variety of areas of responsibility, including HR. Hiring her husband for our second biggest revenue sport would present a ton of messy conflicts. BC has a very specific nepotism policy: From the BC EEO portion of the Employee Handbook “Employment of Relatives Employment of relatives is permitted, except in circumstances where an appointment would place related people in supervisory and subordinate roles within the same office or department, or in a situation where influence could be exerted, directly or indirectly, on future decisions concerning the status of employment, promotion, or compensation.” 

If Dennis Gates were hired, Jocelyn would presumably have to leave the Athletic Department, or BC would have to create a series of specialized protocols to deal with the numerous conflicts to arise. Is Pat Kraft really going to use his goodwill on his first hire on a complicated situation involving his No. 2? I don’t think so. It would be a HR nightmare and would also send a strange message to the fans and those in the industry. The guy had an opportunity to make a program-changing hire and a “nation-wide search” and ended up with the husband of the woman whose office is down the hall. Who knows? Maybe Dennis Gates is the next great college basketball coach and BC is letting him pass by because of perception. But I think Kraft wants this hire to improve the basketball team but also send the right message and energy to the fans and the college basketball world. It won’t be a hire when the first question will be “how is this going to work?”

Porter Moser: another guy everyone mentions

 

As soon as BC hired Pat Kraft, speculation kicked in that this meant BC would eventually hire Porter Moser to replace Jim Christian. The gossip made sense. Christian entered the year a lame duck and Moser seemed like a perfect candidate...who also had a history with Pat Kraft. (Kraft worked at Loyola-Chicago prior to Temple.)

There is a lot to like about Moser. However, I do have some concerns. There are parts of his profile that remind me of Steve Donahue. While that might not be fair, I will explain the comparison.

First, the good stuff:

Moser took Loyola-Chicago to the Final Four. Even if it was just lightning in a bottle, that accomplishment will always be impressive. If you include his CBI win, it speaks to an ability to coach his team through unique matchups and a good grasp for strategy and Xs & Os. He would come to BC with a long record as a head coach. While not perfect (Illinois St. fired him after three out of four losing seasons), he has been competitive at every stop and built a really good program at Loyola. He played at Creighton and coached at Loyola, so he understands the Jesuit community and would seemingly be comfortable at BC.

My concern:

Like Donahue, Moser has won with a very specific blueprint that works great at Loyola but would have to undergo major adjustments at BC. He currently recruits heavy in the Midwest and has had most of his success with tweeners and under the radar guys from Illinois and Indiana. (His current roster has three southerners, two international and the rest from the Midwest.) That is great for him and clearly a great model for Loyola-Chicago. However, BC is a different pitch. While we have also thrived with under the radar types, we need guys with a bit higher ceilings and we usually have to recruit nationwide. If Moser comes to BC, he can't make the same mistake Donahue made of thinking he can out scheme the ACC talent with a roster constructed like his old ones. 

If Moser ends up being the hire, it would say a lot about the faith Kraft has in him. That would be a nice endorsement. I hope they have the type of relationship -- and Kraft understands BC enough to help his former colleague adjust his midmajor, midwest model to Boston and the ACC.

The challenge with any first time head coaches

 

Michigan assistant and Boston College alum Howard Eisley is another recurring name in this BC coaching search. Eisley has a lot going for him. He is a key assistant at an elite program. He had a long NBA career and then transitioned into NBA assistant roles. He is a proud BC guy looking for his shot. Oh, and it also helps that he has a son who is an elite prospect. But I don't think BC should hire Eisley or any first time head coach this time around.

I am sure Pat Kraft will talk to some guys who have never bee head coaches. Names floated include Celtics assistant Jay Larranaga, Gonzaga's Tommy Lloyd (who I advocated for in the past) and Villanova's Kyle Neptune. All have great resumes and promising upsides. The issue is we don't know their downsides.

BC is in a better position than it has been with regards to basketball hires. We have more money. We have facilities upgrades close to becoming official. We are in the elite conference yet there is potential to break into the top half of that conference. We don't need to take a risk on an unknown. Pat Kraft can go out and show BC is serious about basketball and get a proven winner. 

There is always the risk that the proven winner might not win at BC and that one of these assistants we pass up goes onto great things. I am okay with that potential trade off. I want BC to get back to respectable and fun basketball. Let's go find as close to a sure thing as we can.

Getting the Cooley and Coen talk out of the way

BC should have hired Bill Coen or Ed Cooley when they fired Al Skinner. BC also should have hired Bill Coen or Ed Cooley when they fired Steve Donahue. Now for the third time in just over a decade, BC has a chance to hire either of the former Skinner assistants. While there are numerous reasons why it won't happen again, I still need to address both and advocate why I think both are better than 90% of the names being floated this time around.

The case for either

While much has changed and the future looks more promising than the last decade, BC remains a unique job. A coach who is familiar with the institutional challenges and strengths has a huge head start on most candidates. Due to their previous time at BC, both coaches know what can work at BC and understand how to recruit and coach at BC.

Both have accomplished enough since they've left to prove that they are their own men and not just two guys who were in the right place at the right time with Skinner. Now the fact a decade later neither are at some basketball power would lead some skeptics to say "BC didn't miss out on anything with those two." I would argue the opposite. Both have improved their respective programs and done it through multiple recruiting cycles to show that it wasn't a fluke. The fact that both stayed in the region is a bonus as they wouldn't have to rebuild recruiting connections nor even make difficult decisions about uprooting families.

Some fans will argue that both are limited and neither would take BC to the next level. While I am optimistic about both, I understand this concern. But my belief is that even if neither ever win the ACC or get us to a Final Four, they both would provide stability and credibility and leave BC in a better place than we are now.

The case against 

As soon as I post this, Providence fans will immediately start saying that BC can't afford Cooley and he will never leave. I know that BC can afford him because we have much more money than Providence athletics. In fact any school that didn't play football this fall is seeing their athletic revenue in freefall. Cooley makes more than Christian did, so BC would have to pay him more than we've ever paid a basketball coach. It can be done. Will it? I don't know. BC is talking big about budgets. Would Ed leave? I don't know. Villanova showed that you can win a National Championship from the Big East. Would the chance to go to the ACC make a difference? It doesn't hurt to ask.

Aside from the Cooley will never leave crowd, there are those Cooley critics who think he is all about recruiting and will never get the most out of his rosters. I understand that, but still think his track record and fit will be better than most of our candidates.

With Bill Coen, the question is not whether he would take the job. He would. The question is can he win at BC. His Northeastern record is pretty good, but not dominant. He also works the transfer market hard for his talent. That sort of strategy is harder to pull off in the ACC. But my belief remains that he is better than most of the names floated and better than nearly all of the guys who only have mid-major experience.

Will it matter?
BC didn't hire these guys before, so odds are not great they get hired this time. But if I am Pat Kraft, after I talk to the big names, I don't go further down the list than these two. BC needs to get to respectability first and both Cooley and Coen can provide that type of basketball.

A reminder about the media hammering BC for the Christian firing

BC fired Jim Christian Sunday and immediately some national basketball guys started ripping the decision given that it is midseason, COVID and all the other extenuating circumstance. All the shots at BC are silly and shortsighted and done because the media guys tend to be coach and agent friendly. That's it. They liked Christian and have been carrying his water for his entire tenure at BC. He was unceremoniously dumped and so they are using social media to stick up for one of the "good guys." But it means nothing in the long run.

What matters now is what Pat Kraft does with the extra time and his own media friendly type (look for Pete Thamel to get most of the scoops). 

The media will shit all over the opportunity and say that no one wants this job. That happens every time. However, things are a little different this go around. The basketball facility -- while not officially announced -- is much closer to a reality than it has ever been. The ACC will remain daunting but Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Miami and FSU are all likely to go through coaching changes during our next basketball coach's tenure. That is a lot of shake up and a lot of uncertainty and opportunity. (And if all those schools don't make changes then our new coach will be going up against a series of coaches in their late 70s, which is highly different from prime Coach K and Roy.) I also think the player friendly rules the NBA is taking on development will change the landscape of college basketball in a good way for a place like BC (I will explain that in a future post).

For now, sit back and watch what Kraft does. This is his first big decision and it looks like there are plenty of good candidates in the mix.