Friday, June 29, 2018

A new look at over and under achieving coaches

When I wasn't tweeting out banal political tweets the other day, I retweeted this article from Football Study Hall on over and underachieving college football coaches. You can read the full article, but the gist is that over a period of time, some coaches continue to outperform the stats related to winning and losing. From Bill Connelly:
You can potentially distill coaching into two things: building a team that produces great stats and figuring out how to maneuver in tight games when neither team has a statistical advantage. The former matters above all (Nick Saban and Steve Kragthorpe, after all, are nearly even on this list ... and on no other list in existence), but if nothing else, this list might help us to understand which teams/coaches are good or bad at the latter.

I am interpreting Connelly's maneuvering quote as "game management." His list goes starts at 2005 and captures coaches with four or more years as a head coach. Of note:

-- TOB: Diff/Wins per year = 0.66; Percentile among coaches = 93.8%
-- Spaz: Diff/Wins per year = -0.01; Percentile among coaches = 52.8%
-- Addazio: Diff/Wins per year = -0.41; Percentile among coaches = 20.6%

A few notes of clarification. Since they started tracking in 2005, most of TOB's data is from NC State. (I can't speak to how he managed games there.) It also includes Addazio's time at Temple. It also doesn't factor in the huge issue of talent and recruiting. By this simple measurement Spaz is a better coach than Addazio, however, Spaz's mismanagement of multiple aspects of the program left him winning fewer games each year. I also don't think TOB is some sort of Bill Walsh genius who was never appreciated. I think he was ultra conservative and rarely beat himself, but also never took risks when he had to (at least at BC).

Does this mean Addazio can't improve or can't win big? No. Talent overwhelms at a certain point (see Nick Saban). But I do think it validates us when we are scratching our heads at some of Addazio's decisions. I also worry about Addazio's sounding boards in-game. Who will replace Pasqualoni as the voice in his ear about adjustments and decisions? (It should be noted that Pasqualoni's numbers are close to Addazio's.) I just hope the coach is doing something to adapt, so this factor starts breaking BC's way.

Thursday, June 28, 2018

More CFN preview stuff

College Football News released more of their preview features. They consider BC the 5th best team in the Atlantic Division and the 9th best team in the ACC.

There is plenty of good news, like they pick Dillon to be the Offensive Player of the Year. Also, Sweeney, Lindstrom, Allen, Walker and Dennis made first team All ACC.

And here are the opponent previews, I have yet to highlight:
-- Clemson
-- Virginia Tech

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Big day for Addazio recruiting

Addazio had a good day on the recruiting front. First came a commitment from long-rumored RB Patrick Garwo. The Pennsylvania product had offers from multiple Power 5 schools. Rivals gives him 4 stars. 247 gives him 3 stars. He's not Andre Williams/AJ Dillon big, but he's also not a little third down type back. Hopefully he can be featured and use his explosiveness.

Later in the day, news broke that Ohio LB Tommy Eichenberg verbaled to BC. He continues the long BC-St. Ignatius connection and picked BC over offers from Duke, Iowa, Michigan State and Purdue. His older brother is an Offensive Lineman at Notre Dame. Rivals gives him 4 stars. 247 gives him 3 stars. He's big already at 6'3 225 so I wouldn't be surprised if he develops into a DE/LB hybrid.

This is sort of news is all upside for BC. We are recruiting the same type of player who has always succeeded here (Catholic school products from Ohio and PA with respectable offers, but not going head-to-head with the biggest names). Yet both carry high ratings with the recruiting service. If this continues, BC will end up with a prototype group of BC guys who just happen to be rated very high. It is shaping up to the be most respected BC recruiting class in a decade.

First look at BC ticket commercial

BC posted their tickets commercial. It is fine and general enough. It's interesting that they mention Dillon (via Meter's play-by-play) but don't call out anyone else. They are not selling Addazio as a focal point nor the schedule. In the long run, it is probably best to sell the game day experience and build up a base of people who are there for a BC game and not one player or coach.

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

CORRECTED: Basketball finds elite guard

[EDITED: Heath is a 2019 recruit. My mistake. He won't be part of this team. Still a solid get.]

For a long time it looked like BC would use its open scholarship on a transfer. Instead they found one of the remaining, uncommitted elite recruits in Jay Heath. He committed Tuesday. Heath is from the D.C area, so given our recruiting staff, it was a natural fit and find. Spinelli has been listed as his primary recruiter. He also had offers from Georgetown and Kansas State.

I am always a bit skeptical with summer recruits for basketball. Other than Jared Dudley, I can't remember a late flier working out. This feels a bit different. Without Robinson, this roster became attractive to a certain type of player. Heath believes he can plug in with our returning and new talent and excel. Let's hope he is right. Welcome aboard.

Monday, June 25, 2018

Herren Jr already at BC

We knew that Chris Herren Jr was interested in BC, but his decision to enroll now as a preferred walk-on came together relatively quickly. Aside from not getting a scholarship, there is little downside for Herren. Maybe he thinks he can get some of Robinson's shots and minutes. And if he breaks into the regular rotation, I am sure he will get a scholarship.

The issue with Herren Jr was never really about basketball. His family and his father's legacy at BC is say the least. His uncle Mike had a short, troubled career at BC. Chris Sr allegedly committed to BC in part to fulfill his brother's potential. We know how that ended. I hope Chris Jr is coming to BC without any burden.

These things are always complicated (look at the expectations of the second generation of Fluties). I hope Chris Jr has a great career and establishes himself as more than a walk-on and more than just his father's kid.

Sunday, June 24, 2018

Another Florida verbal

Saturday, Florida athlete Romain Mungin committed to BC. He's a 3 star without a designated position. With his size 5'9, 148 lbs, you have to assume BC is considering him for a WR or DB slot. He has offers from Rutgers, Indiana and a bunch of mid-majors. He also plays at Florida power Plant High School, so despite his size, the staff probably has a good feel for how he will compete at the next level.

Friday, June 22, 2018

How many offers does BC need to fill a class?

If you follow social media, you see how often BC offers football scholarships to players. But no one has counted those until now. As of June 22, the Rivals' database has BC offering up 257 scholarships to members of the Class of 2019. For perspective that is 16th most of the Power 5. From those 257 offers, BC will lock in a class in the low 20s.

The 257 number will also grow. If you follow Addazio's recruiting, things tend to come in waves. It looks like they makes offers, see who accepts and move on from those who don't show real interest. Once a player locks in, the staff makes another wave of offers to fill other slots as needed.

There are some schools that are much more selective. But I have no problem with Addazio's approach. As long as he is improving the talent and getting good players, who cares that he has to send out dozens for every one real prospect?

Thursday, June 21, 2018

Robinson becomes first BC lottery pick

With the 13th pick in the NBA Draft, the Los Angeles Clippers selected Jerome Robinson. Surprisingly this is the first time a BC player has been selected that high in the Lottery era. Congrats to Jerome. Clearly the decision to leave early was correct and paid off for him. He will get a significant guaranteed contract.

Robinson also carried himself well in the post Draft interviews and represented BC well. Jim Christian was in Brooklyn for the Draft and received a hug as Robinson worked his way towards the stage. Hopefully the staff is already leveraging Robinson's success and development as a recruiting tool.

I wish Robinson had been selected by a better team with a more clear path ahead. I don't know if Doc Rivers is the right guy to develop Robinson at the next level. One thing to like about the Clippers is that supposedly Clippers' Adviser Jerry West loves Robinson. That sort of endorsement should lead to organizational support for his development.

Good luck to Jerome. I don't care about the Clippers, but will be rooting for him.

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Robinson will be in the Green Room

The best sign of Jerome Robinson's future might be that he was invited in the the NBA Draft Green Room. Multiple news outlets have confirmed he accepted the invite and will be in attendance. The list is basically sure things. The NBA is not looking to embarrass anyone. If they have him backstage, he will get drafted in the first round. The only question going into the Draft now is where and how high.

Tuesday, June 19, 2018

All Americans and other links

Athlon put five players on the preseason All America teams. Dillon had the highest honors with second team status. But it is a good showing and speaks to BC's depth. 

Isaac Yiadom is adjusting well in Denver.

Here is Jerome Robinson talking evaluating himself as he gets ready for the next level.

Monday, June 18, 2018

The latest Basketball transfer news

Goodman and others are reporting that grad transfer Ehab Amin (Texas A&M Corpus Christi) is visiting BC this week. He is another wing player and also looking at Oregon.

I don't know anything about Amin (other than his stats). It looks like Christian is out trying to find the best talent he can with the last spots, as opposed to finding a certain type of player (point, wing, big, etc). I was hoping for some size but maybe we can replicate some of what left with another wing. Amin seems to be a solid defensive player.

I don't know who is feeding the media, but many of the targets are becoming public, so we will probably have news soon.

Sunday, June 17, 2018

No one looks at Addazio the same way

I don't think Addazio is a great coach. I also don't think he is a bad one. He's mediocre. 7-6 seems to be his perfect record. But I can be myopic about BC stuff. I am too deep into it. Too emotional. Maybe I don't know...or appreciate what we have. I try to step back and I do think I am being fair, because if you read enough preview stuff, people think Addazio is an overachiever or an underachiever.

Athlon ranked him as the worst coach in the ACC. They hedge a bit and say he would be higher in other conferences and might have a strong year. But 14th is 14th.

Phil Steele on the other hand likes Addazio, thinks we will be a surprise team and a potential Top 20 team.

I do think it is good that many are saying "this is the year." It might mean we finally see if Addazio is anything more than a 7-6 coach.

Saturday, June 16, 2018

Friday, June 15, 2018

Good buzz on Robinson

According to Adam Himmelsback, Jerome Robinson is a hot name heading into the NBA Draft. Once considered a second rounder, some teams supposedly want him as early as the teens. That's obviously good for Jerome as the higher he is taken the more guaranteed money he will get. The key for long-term success though is getting on the right team. Robinson's offensive game is pretty versatile. As long as his D is solid, he should get plenty of playing time next year.

Thursday, June 14, 2018

An OLine fact you will hear a lot in the coming weeks

Did you know BC enters the season with the second most combined starts of returning Offensive Lineman? (Wisconsin is first.) I mention this because I am reading it in preview after preview. It is also encouraging for a team that is going to focus on its ground game.

Considering Addazio's reputation as an OLine guru, one of the most disappointing aspects of the disastrous 2015 season was the Oline play. I was surprised and frustrated that Addazio didn't have his thin and young crew playing better. They improved in 2016 but were still not great. The start of 2017 was more of the same, but then -- about four games in -- they really started to click. Dillon gets a lot of the credit for the spark last year, but it really started up front.

Now -- with that much more experience -- and more weapons on offense and a punishing runner behind them, this should be one of the best OLines in the country.

Wednesday, June 13, 2018

New NCAA rules and how it impacts BC

The NCAA announced two major new rules Wednesday. Both will uniquely impact BC.

The rule that is getting the most attention is the open transfer rule. This prevents coaches from "blocking" a transfer to a rival or future opponent. This one only partially benefits BC. The ACC is still allowed to have its own rules and has not lifted the intra-conference restrictions. Meaning BC kids can't easily transfer to other ACC schools and BC cannot easily pick up an ACC transfer.

The second new rule allows for a player to take the field during his/her redshirt season. In football, this partial playing could be as many as four games. For a program that wants to develop players, this is a great thing for BC. Now a guy can redshirt but still get critical on the field development.

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Flutie talks up Dillion

I know he does the Notre Dame games on NBC. I know he has to be impartial. But clearly Doug Flutie loves BC and still follows the team closely. Look at his reaction to an AJ Dillon question. It's general, unadulterated gushing. Let's hope things fall into place like Doug says.

Monday, June 11, 2018

ACC rules make Bey signing unlikely

Short summary on basketball player Saddiq Bey. Top rated basketball recruit signs with NC State. NC State also picks up an elite transfer so they push out Bey and release him from his Letter of Intent. Bey looks at new schools including BC and Wake. The ACC says if he goes to either of those schools he will have to sit out two seasons.This is not an NCAA rule. It is an ACC rule. Bey has wisely moved his focus onto non-ACC schools like Villanova.

There was a small window where it seemed like Bey might join BC, but now I can't see it happening. Why would he make such sacrifices?

BC still has an open scholarship. Look for more targets to emerge soon.

Sunday, June 10, 2018

Valecce throwing and other links

Here is video of future Eagle Matt Valecce throwing.

Jerome Robinson is working out for the Atlanta Hawks. (Another Eagle in Atlanta.)
Here is BC's article on the various former Eagles who have gone on to win the Stanley Cup.

Saturday, June 09, 2018

Friday, June 08, 2018

Video of BC's new commit Izaiah Henderson

Want to get excited more excited about BC's recruiting class? Watch this clip of new verbal Izaiah Henderson. I is edited...blah, blah, blah...look at the competition...yada, yada. Who cares? He moves well and looks like he could get bigger. It is June. I am a sucker for football highlights. Especially from a future Eagle.

Thursday, June 07, 2018

Addazio continues recruiting hot streak

Right now 247 ranks BC the 4th best recruiting class in the ACC. This due in large part to another successful week in the crazy world of college football recruiting. The big gets this week were NJ Dline prospect Izaiah Henderson and NJ Oline prospect Blerim Rustemi. While BC's ranking among the ACC schools might fall once other classes pick up more kids, Addazio's early edge and the surprising depth and quality of this class is a great sign. Nearly all the current verbals have Power 5 offers other than BC. Nearly all are guys who camped. Many are from territories we consider important (like New Jersey).

The best part of this class looking good, is that they are buying in when there could be doubts. Addazio has yet to break through his 7-6 ceiling. He's had staff changes (that other schools use against him). Yet for good players to continue to commit, it is clear that there is momentum. I know the Practice Facility is part of that, but as important are the current players. Fans often ignore how much current players influence recruiting. Recruits buy in if they think the current players believe and buy in. That was an obvious challenge to some previous BC coaches. Their rosters didn't buy in and it spooked plenty of good prospects. Addazio may not be beloved. He has plenty of issues, but clearly the current roster thinks good things are happening.

It will be interesting to see how this recruiting class progresses. Addazio likes to lock it down before the season. If BC keeps momentum going, this already good class could become the best in more than a decade.

Wednesday, June 06, 2018

BC staff pushing practice facility via social media

For the longest time, the Football staff said they needed an indoor practice facility to compete. There was plenty of hoopla when the announcement came and more during the ground breaking. Addazio said it immediately helped recruiting.

Now as the project nears completion, the staff continues to talk it up on Social Media. Look at this video below from Coach Brian White of Coach Frank Leonard talking about it. I expect more to follow as all the summer recruits and campers will probably be getting hard hat tours.

Tuesday, June 05, 2018

Hawkins officially gone

The long speculated is finally official -- Deontae Hawkins will not return to BC for a sixth year of college basketball. He signed with an agent this week, making him ineligible. Both sides pursued a sixth year as soon as it became clear he would not return from injury, but it was not to be. As we've learned from football, the system is not friendly to the sixth year and a player really needs to show a truly unique medical issue.

Hawkins' short BC career will remain a great what if. I think he might have been the difference between an NIT and an NCAA selection, but he was still not enough to make BC elite.

BC has been actively looking to use their last open scholarship on an impact player. Let's hope whoever gets it has better luck than Hawkins. Good luck to Deontae on his professional career.

Monday, June 04, 2018

A look at win totals predictions

We know that Vegas is not real excited about BC's upcoming season. The over/under on wins is 5.5 at most sports books. Vegas Insider has all the ACC team's listed, so you can see how BC compares.

Boston College -- 5.5
Clemson -- 11
Duke -- 6.5
Florida State -- 7.5
Georgia Tech -- 5.5
Louisville -- 7
Miami -- 10
North Carolina -- 5
North Carolina State -- 7
Pitt -- 5.5
Syracuse -- 6
Virginia -- 5
Virginia Tech -- 8.5
Wake Forest -- 6

Basically this predicts a last place finish in the division and a losing record. I guess I am more optimistic than they are. Some might think the schedule is tough, but I see it as a typical BC schedule (so manageable). Let's hope they are wrong.

Sunday, June 03, 2018

Big weekend for recruiting offers

While most think of this weekend as Reunion time at BC, Addazio and his crew were using it for recruiting. They held a camp and plenty of kids walked away with offers. Including:

This New Jersey lineman.
This NJ DLine prospect got an offer too.
Another went to this Georgia DB.

Saturday, June 02, 2018

ICYMI, Apuzzo wins Tewaaraton

While it doesn't take away the pain of losing the National Championship game, BC should be very proud of Sam Apuzzo's accomplishments. Last week, the Junior won the Tewaaraton Award. It is one of the most prestigious awards in College Lacrosse. She is the first BC player to win the honor.

Friday, June 01, 2018

Some times and scheduling stuff

A short little collection of important times and dates for Football and Basketball...

We now know the start time for the Purdue Football game this fall. It will be noon on one of the ESPN family of networks. It seems like we play less often at noon than we used to. This game is going to be a must win.

BC Basketball will play Minnesota as part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. The game will be at Conte. BC also added a road game at Texas A&M to the schedule.