The Class of 2013

Year 5. Year 5. Year 5. BC fans heard that signpost many times in the early days of Addazio. In general, five years is a fair time to judge a coach. In theory, by Year 5, the coach should have the roster he wants, the coaches he wants and the schedule he wants. All the growing pains and adjustments should be over. All the talent should be mature. We know how Addazio is doing. Maybe we should see how the other Power 5 coaches hired in 2013 fared.

Gary Anderson, Wisconsin. Left Wisconsin after two seasons. Just resigned from Oregon State.
-- Record at Wisconsin: 19–7, Big Ten: 13–3
Anderson is an example of how unpredictable these sorts of hires can be. His first two seasons in Madison were great, but he wanted more control, fewer admissions hassles, and a larger budget. He was also a west coast guy who wanted to be back home. That didn't work out as his time at Oregon State was a disaster.
 
Bret Bielema, Arkansas. Still coaching at Arkansas
-- Record at Arkansas: 27–29; SEC: 10–24
After the chaos following Petrino and his interims, Bielema had a real claim to a rebuild. That is how he excused away his first year. Since then, he's produced a bunch of Daz like seasons (7-6). Right now he is firmly on the hot seat at 0-2 in the SEC.

Dave Doeren, NC State. Still coaching at NC State.
-- Record at NC State: 30–27; ACC: 12–23
The parallels to Addazio are all over this comparison. Both came from the MAC. Both had early success due to a Florida QB transfer. Both had some turnover in their coordinators. Doeren had interest in the BC job -- or at least leveraging BC's interest into a better NC State offer -- but never really got much traction with Bates. He's seemed overmatched at times and made many questionable game management decisions over the years, but right now it seems like he has done the better job rebuilding. It should also be noted that Addazio is 3-1 vs Doeren in the ACC.

Sonny Dykes, Cal. Fired after four seasons. 
-- Record at Cal: 19–30; Pac-12: 10–26
Only one winning season and rubbing people the wrong way got Dykes fired after last year. Cal -- which has all sorts of financial issues in their Athletic Department -- was willing to eat much of his contract just to make a change.

Darrell Hazell, Purdue. Fired midseason in Year 4.
-- Record at Purdue: 9–33; Big Ten: 3–24
Remember when this guy was a hot name and considered the best hire? As we potentially head to a change, it is important to remember that the guy with the best agent or the most friends in the media doesn't always turn out to be the best coach. Hazell was bad from Day 1 and barely won any Big Ten games.

Mark Helfrich, Oregon. Fired after four seasons. 
-- Record at Oregon: 37–16; Pac-12: 24–12
If Addazio inherited a mess, Helfrich inherited the opposite. His roster was talented. His program was considered a national power and Kelly left the most dynamic playbook in college football. Eager to leave his own stamp on the program, Helfrich ditched Kelly's offense. He maintained some success the first two seasons, but Year 3 was a disappointment and Year 4 was a disaster.

Butch Jones, Tennessee. Still coaching at Tennessee.
-- Record at Tennessee: 33–23; SEC: 14–20

Jones seems like a dead man walking in Knoxville. His five win first season was forgiven, but he has yet to break through the nine win ceiling and has upset fans with his offbeat press conferences. Barring an immediate turnaround, Tennessee is going to be looking for a new coach.

Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech. Still coaching at Texas Tech.
-- Record at Texas Tech:28–27; Big XII: 14–24
I think there are many casual college football fans that assume BC is generally happy with Addazio. Just as I think your typical BC and CFB fan would assume Kingsbury is well regarded at Texas Tech. While he was a breathe of fresh air, the results of his first few seasons were uneven and somewhat uninspiring. A decent start this year has cooled "hot seat" talk.

Mike MacIntyre, Colorado. Still coaching at Colorado.
-- Record at Colorado: 23–34; Pac-12: 10–29
Another guy with a slow rebuild. But last year's 10-win season earned him Coach of the Year awards. Mac had a history with Bates, but never really got on BC's radar. He currently stands at 3-3, however, last year's success has bought him some time.

Gus Malzahn, Auburn. Still coaching at Auburn.
-- Record at Auburn: 40–19, SEC: 21-14
Malzahn started off with a bang and made it to the National Championship game before losing to FSU. Since then, it has been a struggle to recapture that magic and the explosive offense. This year's hot start has probably bought him another year.

Scott Shafer, Syracuse. Fired atfter three seasons.
-- Record at Syracuse:14–23; ACC: 7–17
Timing is everything with these hires. Because Doug Marrone left for the NFL in January, Syracuse was left to scramble for a coach and picked Marrone's DC. I have had many 'Cuse fans tell me that had they made the change during a traditional time period, they probably would have targeted Addazio. By the time Marrone left, Addazio was already locked up at BC. Shafer was abrasive and only had one winning season. The Orange cut their losses. He did however go 2-1 against Addazio.

Mark Stoops, Kentucky. Still coaching at Kentucky.
-- Record at Kentucky: 24–31; SEC: 10–25
I always thought Stoops would have been a good fit at BC, but he was hired at Kentucky before we even got the chance to fire Spaz. It has been a really slow rebuild, but he seems to have things going in the right direction. The Wildcats went to a bowl last year and are currently 5-1.

BC-NC State preview

Outside of the dark days of the Spaz era, I always pick BC to win. It is not a gimmick. I genuinely talk myself into the idea that we can win if a few things happen. Last week I didn't really feel it. This week, I am back believing! The Fadule showing gave me a boost of confidence. I don't think he is the savior. I don't even know if he will be our only QB this week (Smith is practicing again). But I saw enough movement from the Offense to believe that we can beat this mediocre NC State team.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I think this is Dave Doeren's last season at NC State. Based on what I learned when he was a candidate for the BC job, I think the guy is fairly ambitious and looking for his next spot. He didn't get the Wisconsin job last year but now there are so many openings, I could see him jumping at a Big Ten job (Minnesota?) Maybe Illinois. While his work in Raleigh has not been overly impressive, he can sell it as rebuilding and heading in the right direction. Plus what other Power 5 coaches are lining up for a lower level Big Ten job? As for why he would leave NC State...I think that is one of those jobs that is not all it is cracked up to be. Just look at what TOB found out. It is not easy to win there. You are stuck in a division with Clemson and Florida State and have second fiddle status in the state to UNC. Could someone make it work? Sure, but I don't think Doeren is that sort of guy. The Big Ten schools could offer more money, more short-term stability and a chance to return to the Midwest. As for what this means for BC, I think coaching turnover in the conference is very good for us. It shifts the balance, hurts a recruiting cycle or two and more than one of these schools will make a bad hire. Right now Miami and Virginia Tech are looking. Virginia is probably close behind. Add in one or two leaving for different jobs and you have a nice shakeup that can hopefully benefit out team.

Three Simple Keys
1.  Rush for 200 yards. I don't care if it is with Smith or Fadule. It doesn't really matter. Someone has to open up something and the running backs have to make plays too. We are not beating anyone through the air. If we rush for 200 yards, we win this game easily.
2. Get a big passing TD. Even the threat of running opened up some passing last week. Now we need one of those passes to break for a TD.  
3. Sack Brissett five times. Like the 200 yard mark, this might seem like an arbirtary number, but I think that many sacks would kill enough drives to keep their score low.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 2-0 vs Doeren
-- Doeren is 6-7 on the road as NC State's coach
-- Addazio is 7-8 after a loss while at BC
The current line is BC+4

Factoid
NC State has yet to win at Alumni in an ACC game.

Scoreboard Watching
I am keeping hope alive that we run the table and get bowl eligible at 6-6 (with an exemption). But to get that exemption there needs to be multiple seven loss ACC teams that cannot jump us. Wake and Georgia Tech are off this week, so we have to hope Syracuse gets one step closer to seven by losing to Louisville.

I hope to see...
Gowins get a big play. His first fumble was not his fault. Last week was. I would hate to see his season come down to that. Let's hope he gets more playing time, holds onto the ball and makes a big contribution.

BC is in trouble if...
Neither QB gets in a rhythm. One of my biggest problems with QB rotations (going back to the TOB days) is that it too often wastes possessions. And those wasted possessions are killers in low scoring games. Yanking guys in and out is rarely productive. I hope one guy looks good and one looks terrible just so Addazio can stop wasting time.

Overall
I think we move the ball this week. Whoever turns out to be QB gets the read option going with some power runs behind Baker and we eat clock and score points. That puts NC State in catch up mode and they never get enough TDs to match us.
Final Score: BC 21, NC State 13

BC-NC State preview

This game is a test. Not only are we playing a true road game, but we are seeing how the team and staff responded to the tough Colorado State loss. Can they recover? Will they be ready for their first hostile crowd? From a bowl eligibility standpoint, this is a must win. From an evaluation of Addazio as a program builder and team manager this is even more critical. Does he have the skills to get everyone back on the same page and win a very winnable game?

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I rarely go to games, so it shouldn't really matter to me, but I don't like when BC frontloads its schedule with September home games. I understand why they do it. It helps the team build confidence and win totals early in the season. Also, September is traditionally a good month weather wise, making for a better home experience. My problem with the concept is that BC pays for it on the other end with tough away stretches. I also think it hurts demand and attendance when there are multiple home games in September. A lot of our fan base cannot go every week. If the games were more spread out, we might be able to improve attendance.

Three Simple Keys
1. Protection for Murphy. NC State is not great at getting to the QB. If we give Murphy time, he might be able to make some big plays from the pocket.
2. Stop them on 3rd down. CSU was 8-14 on 3rd Down.  That can't happen again.
3. Force turnovers from Brissett. He's been very careful with the ball this year and has only thrown one pick.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 3-4 in away games while coaching BC
-- The visitor is 1-8 in this series
-- Doeren is 1-8 coming off a loss while at NC State
The current line is BC+3.5

Factoid
Did you know that Jacoby Brissett and Tyler Murphy were teammates at Florida? You will only hear this about 3,000 more times between now and the end of the game.

Scoreboard Watching
Until either team breaks through and becomes a consistent winner again, I think Syracuse is our closest peer program. Their coach took over around the same time as Daz and they are still backfilling talent gaps. It will be interesting to see how they hang with Florida State. The 'Noles could crush them to the point where their season starts to fall apart. Or Syracuse could put up a good fight and raise expectations for the rest of the season.

I hope to see...
A big day from the defensive line. Their ranks are getting thinner, but they really set the tempo on D. Against USC, they changed the game. Against CSU, they couldn't close on the QB.

BC is in trouble if...
Knoll cannot convert FGs either. Even outside of the lost of points, not having a competent kicker changes all the possessions. Suddenly you're going for it when you might have kicked. When this happened with the Matt Ryan teams, I didn't worry. With Murphy I worry about making the most of four down territory.

Bottom Line
I don't feel great about this game. The CSU loss exposed some issues and I don't know Addazio well enough to know if he can fix them. However, I still think we are a better team than NC State and can run on them. I think it is another close game, but BC holds on and gets a true road win.
Final Score: BC 31, NC State 24

BC-NC State preview

We are so close. So, so close to qualifying for a bowl game. Everything is lined up. We are playing with a lot of confidence. It is Senior Day. NC State is falling apart. Now we have to have the killer instinct. The team has to show it can put a shaken team away. Last week was a test that BC passed. This is just another. Good teams win as favorites at home. Go do it.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)We need more November home games. I know home games are tough Thanksgiving weekend because so many students are off campus. I also know that the game day experience is more comfortable in September. Yet I feel like we give up a huge built in home advantage by not playing more games at Alumni in the late fall. Even now as the conference fills up with northern teams, there are still plenty of potential opponents who would hate to play us in a game with temperatures in the 20s.

Three Simple Keys
1. Bring the pressure on Brandon Mitchell. I know I often write some variant on bringing a blitz each week, but this game things are bit different. Mitchell is back as the starter and lone QB. He missed a big chunk of the season with a broken foot. He's split snaps since he's been back. Now that he is their starter again, I say confuse him, fluster him, do everything you can.
2. Keep passing. Overlooked in Andre Williams' huge day was that our passing game was improved. I know that was partially because we were playing a poor defense, but Rettig had time and found other people besides Amidon. Keep it up.
3. Don't let the punts keep rolling. We are giving up a lot of field position by letting so many punts roll. I know Dudeck muffed his first chance last week, but I still want him fielding the punt returns.

Gambling Notes
-- NC State has lost five straight games
-- NC State is 4-5 against the spread
-- NC State is 1-5 all time in Boston
The current line is BC-7.5

Factoid
There are some quirky parallels in Addazio and Doeren's resumes. Both are in their first year with ACC programs. This is the second head coaching job for both. Both got their starts two years ago at MAC programs.

Scoreboard Watching
UNC-Pitt is probably the most relevant game. While we fight to become bowl eligible it would be nice for the Tar Heels to get another loss.

I hope to see...
The crowd show up for Senior Day ceremonies. These guys have seen the slide of BC football and were there for the rock bottom. It wasn't the four years they were expecting when they signed on to perennial winner Boston College. Yet they've played hard this year and bought into what Addazio was selling. The seniors and their families deserve our thanks and support on Saturday.

BC is in trouble if...
We allow non-offensive touchdowns (pick 6, punt return, etc.). NC State has yet to score more than 20 in an ACC game this year. We cannot give them points. If we do, they might steal the game.

Bottom Line
After last week's frustrating effort, I expect the defense to buckle down. I think we force some turnovers and control most of the game. I expect a decent balance of run and pass in a comfortable if slightly boring victory. The Seniors become bowl eligible and get to leave Alumni as winners.
Final Score: BC 24, NC State 17

Doeren to NC State and BC's opportunity to be selective

Dave Doeren signed with NC State. BC never even called him to schedule a formal interview. I really liked Doeren as a candidate, but I am not concerned about losing him to another ACC school. I am not even surprised as I've heard rumblings about Doeren for a week or two. As I wrote:

3. Dave Doeren, Northern Illinois. I think Doeren would be ideal. He has an intensity and work ethic that we've been lacking since Coughlin. I think he could come to BC, do big things and restore our talent base quickly. His record at Northern Illinois has been very impressive. But I don't think he'll end up at at the Heights. His name is being mentioned for multiple jobs and I don't see BC chasing after the "hot" name. I've been wrong before, but if Doeren ends up at Purdue, I think it will be a missed opportunity for both sides.

Then in the comments section of that same post I wrote:

Doeren is my ideal. I ranked him third because I don't think he is BC's top choice (for a variety of reasons) and I don't think we are his top choice (for a variety of reasons). I think it is a shame, but I don't think it comes together. When both sides start off with doubts, I don't think the relationship comes together...especially when both have options.

Doeren is an aggressive guy and made it clear publicly he was leaving Northern Illinois. I don't think BC liked that approach. I don't think Bates needs a candidate who is willing to sign a lifetime contract in blood, but I do think they want someone who is excited to be at BC and who is going to carry himself in a certain way. Bates is starting his process with his top targets. Doeren may have been called eventually, but when NC State made an offer, he was the type that was going to take it. But BC is operating from a position of strength. There are plenty of good candidates out there. Bates will find the right guy for BC.

Even though I really liked Doeren I am not worried about him being in our division. I think NC State has some issues that will prevent him from being anything more than TOB or Amato were there. I also don't think working for Debbie Yow is going to be a picnic.

Ranking the MAC candidates

Brad Bates wants a younger guy with head coaching experience. The most logical place to look for an up and coming coach who has hands-on experience and is looking to jump is the MAC. Fortunately for BC, Bates came from a MAC school and knows the personalities well. This process will have many twists and turns, but I expect our new coach to come from the MAC. Here is how I would rate the potential candidates:

1. Pete Lembo, Ball State. Lembo hasn't received the attention that some of the others have, but he is a very strong candidate. He's a New Yorker and coached in the northeast at Lehigh. He played at Georgetown and although he is young, he's been a head coach for a long time. The only hole on his resume is recruiting in a BCS level conference.
2. Darrell Hazell, Kent State. He's a New Jersey native and has Kent State in the Top 25 (where they haven't been in years). He has key recruiting experience in Ohio and New Jersey. I think he will get a long look. The only problem is that he has only had two years experience as a head coach and in his first season he had a losing record.
3. Dave Doeren, Northern Illinois. I think Doeren would be ideal. He has an intensity and work ethic that we've been lacking since Coughlin. I think he could come to BC, do big things and restore our talent base quickly. His record at Northern Illinois has been very impressive. But I don't think he'll end up at at the Heights. His name is being mentioned for multiple jobs and I don't see BC chasing after the "hot" name. I've been wrong before, but if Doeren ends up at Purdue, I think it will be a missed opportunity for both sides.
4. Dave Clawson, Bowling Green. This name should be very familiar to BC fans, as he was a candidate in 2007. He's 22-27 at Bowling Green but his wins are trending in the right direction. His ties to the northeast and varied head coaching experience would make him an ideal fit at BC. There is only one problem: his very close relationship with Gene. I don't think it will fully disqualify him, but enough people know about it and enough people would raise the question publicly that I don't see it happening. Bates is his own man, but I doubt he wants to deal with any Gene-related baggage on this hire.
5. Matt Campbell, Toledo. There is young and then there is Matt Campbell. Only 32, Campbell is in his first year as the head guy in Toledo. His record is strong, but his experience is so limited outside of Toledo and Mount Union, that I don't see BC rolling the dice with him now.

The other MAC guys are either too old (Solich) or coming off disappointing seasons. If we go MAC, it will be one of those five guys.

Getting to know Dave Doeren

BC's last three head coaches had been career assistants prior to coming to the Heights. This time around it might make sense to hire someone who has been a Head Coach before and therefore has a different learning curve. One of the popular early names being floated for the job is Northern Illinois Head Coach Dave Doeren. In my opinion Doeren would be an excellent fit at BC and I predict he will be a finalist for the job.

Finding talent

Every potential coach will arrive at BC with a recruiting plan. What I appreciate about Doeren is that his past recruiting success can directly translate to BC. He was recruiting coordinator at Kansas and Wisconsin. He led the efforts that produced a rare Orange Bowl trip for the Jayhawks and Wisconsin's recent run. While neither school is a Northeast Catholic college, both rely heavily on finding and developing three star talent in the Midwest. Doeren didn't (and at Kansas couldn't) really chase after the elite four and five star recruits. Instead the process involved a lot of groundwork with coaches, a lot of player evaluation and leveraging camps and friendly high school programs. Wisconsin even recruited in New Jersey, so he brings those relationships with him too. 

Head Coaching Experience

While it has only been two years, Doeren would come to BC with the understanding of how to run a staff, the demands on his time and how to lead an entire organization. I haven't watched enough NIU games to speak to his Xs and Os, but the guy is currently 20-4 lifetime. He's doing something right. NIU was in a good place when he took over, but he's made them better. Depsite losing his offensive coordinator in the offseason, the team is still trucking along. I don't know if he would bring his whole staff with him to his next job, but he's already shown the ability to find quality assistants and replace them as they move on to better jobs.

In my opinion the only downside to Doeren is his lack of connection to BC or the Northeast. He's a Kansas native and has spent most of his career in the Midwest. But he is Catholic and has worked at private schools before. The lack of familiarity shouldn't be a dealbreaker. Father Leahy and Brad Bates are both Midwestern guys who took jobs at BC even though they didn't have ties to the area.

I don't know if BC and Doeren will be a match, but based on his trackrecord, Doeren is headed for big things.